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Somalia GU Rainfall Performance-Issued on 19 July 2019

The Overall 2019 Gu season rainfall performance was normal to below normal in terms of amount but highly erratic and poorly distributed. The rains started a month late in most areas leading to a prolonged dry period in some areas and moderate drought conditions in others especially during March and April. The last half of May saw increased rainfall activity, including heavy storms that lasted a few hours and distributed within a period of less than ten days during the whole season. Some places received more than 200mm of rainfall especially in the southern regions and a few pockets of Somaliland which is normal for this season. Bari region and the east parts of Sool and Sanag regions in the north recorded the least amounts of rainfall of 30 to 75 mm.

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Rainfall Performance

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 06-06-2019

There were increased rainfall activities across the country during the last few days of May and first three days of June. Heavy rains which led to flash floods were reported in Puntland. Some stations recorded more than 50mm in a single day. The Southern regions also recorded moderate rains during the last week of May. The rains came as immediate relief following a prolonged water stressed period. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates light rains in the northern coastal areas of Puntland and Somaliland. The rains will then spread further inland as the week progresses but with lesser magnitude compared to the previous week. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands will also receive good rains towards the end of the week.The central regions and large parts of southern regions except Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle will remain dry in the coming week save for the coastal areas of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle regions.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 28-05-2019

The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates light to moderate rains in the coastal areas of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle regions. Moderate to heavy rains of more than 50mm cumulatively are expected in Sool and parts of Nugaal regions in Puntland starting from 29 May 2019 with a moderate risk of flash floods in built up and low lying areas. The rains are expected to spread further in space and intensity as the week progresses with good rains expected in many areas across Somaliland and Puntland towards the end of the week. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands will also receive good rains towards the end of the week. The central regions and large parts of southern regions except Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle will remain dry in the coming week. Insufficient soil moisture is a primary factor limiting crop, forage and pasture growth in Somalia. The temporal distribution of the seasonal rainfall is paramount compared to the total quantity rainfall in the season. The Gu rains of 2019 has seen unreliable short spans of rain storms across the country which are not dependable to the water dependent sectors, the crops and pasture require some rainfall to remain productive. For instance, some stations have recorded only one day of rainfall since the start of the season with some exceeding 50mm in the one day rainfall. Such rainfall is rendered ineffective for crop and pasture growth while it would be effective for rainwater harvesting and refill of surface water reservoirs.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 13-05-2019

The Gu 2019 rains continued to spread across Somalia over the last week with many stations recording moderate to heavy rains of more than 50mm total rainfall. Moderate to high rains were also received in Ethiopian highlands over the same period. River levels along the Shabelle continued to increase, while the levels along Juba river dropped slightly. Both Shabelle and Juba river levels are currently below the long term mean for this period of the year. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days (Map 1) indicates light to moderate rains across the entire country, apart from Somaliland and parts of southern regions around Gedo where little no rains are foreseen. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 19 May 2019 shows moderate to heavy rains across the country as well as the Ethiopian highlands (Map 2). Heavy rains in Mudug and Galgaduud regions bordering Ethiopia may lead to flash floods. Given the rainfall forecast, the Juba and Shabelle River levels are expected to increase slightly in the coming week.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 17-05-2019

The Gu 2019 rains continued to spread across Somalia over the last week with many stations recording moderate to heavy rains of more than 50mm total rainfall. Specifically parts of Somaliland and the central areas bordering Ethiopia recorded heavy rains that led to flash floods and some damages to infrastructure. Moderate to high rains were also received in Ethiopian highlands over the same period. River levels along the Shabelle and Juba continued to increase, reaching the long term mean for the first time since the start of the season. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates light to moderate rains across the entire country, apart from Somaliland and parts of southern regions around Gedo where little or no rains are foreseen. The rains are expected to increase further as the week progresses but with lower intensity compared to previous week. It is worth noting that the Gu rainy season started late in Somalia, and the rainfall amounts recorded so far are significantly below normal, with poor temporal and spatial distribution. More rains are required to reverse the damage that has been caused by the poor rains. With no significant rains foreseen until the end of the season, the existing situation may deteriorate further in all the water dependent sectors.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 22-05-2019

The last week saw increased rainfall activities in most parts of the country which however did not last for long. The Ethiopian highlands also recorded good amounts of rainfall which saw sharp increases in the river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates light rains in a few pockets of Somaliland while moderate to heavy rains are foreseen in the southern regions. The cumulative seven days rainfall forecast shows that the southern regions as well as the Ethiopian highlands will continue to receive moderate rains until the end of the week. Other parts of Puntland and central regions are expected to receive little or no rains during the coming week. It is worth noting that the Gu rainy season started late in Somalia, and the rainfall amounts recorded so far are significantly below normal, with poor temporal and spatial distribution. More rains are required to reverse the damage that has been caused by the poor rains. With no significant rains foreseen until the end of the season, the existing situation may deteriorate further in all the water dependent sectors.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 03-05-2019

The Gu 2019 rainy season started late in many places across the country and have so far been characterized with low amounts of rainfall, poor temporal and spatial distribution. However, a few places are yet to receive the much awaited rains. Moderate rains within the Ethiopian highlands led to a gradual increase in river levels inside Somalia, which are still significantly below normal at this time of the year. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates moderate rains in the southern regions with little or no rains in the rest of the country. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 09 May 2019 shows moderate rains across the central and southern regions of Somalia and within Ethiopian highlands. Light rains are expected in Puntland and Somaliland regions during the forecast period.

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Somalia 2019 Gu Season Rainfall Update - Issued on 22 May 2019

The 2019 Gu (March/April-June) season rainfall season was marked by a delayed start in most parts of the country. The distribution of the rains have been poor in terms of quantity, temporal and spatial distribution throughout March and May. The month of May saw increased rainfall activities in the first half of the month with some stations recording moderate to heavy rains. Although this comes very too late for most crop growing areas, the rains in May led to replenishment of pasture and ground water sources in most of the pastoral areas that have been affected by moderate to severe drought since January 2019. Exacerbated by below-average 2018 Deyr (October-December) season rainfall, the cumulative 2019 Gu season rainfall is way below the long-term average and not sufficient to fully address the water shortage across Somalia. As a result, Mild to moderate drought conditions are still present in many areas across the country. An update will be issued every 10-days throughout the remainder of the season.

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Dekadal Rainfall Update

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 06-05-2019

The temporal and spatial distribution of the Gu 2019 rains continue to improve across Somalia. The rains started late in April, with many places across the country recording low rainfall or remaining dry to the end of the month. The situation has however improved over the last few days, especially in the southern parts of the country where moderate rains have been recorded in some stations. The Ethiopian highlands have also received moderate to high rains over the last two weeks, resulting to gradual increase in River levels along Juba and Shabelle. With the current steady rise, the river levels are expected to reach the normal level for this time of the year within the coming one week. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates light to moderate rains in many parts of the country, apart from Bari Region and the coastal areas of Somaliland where little or no rains condition is foreseen for this period. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 13 May 2019 shows moderate rains across the country, and less rains along the coastal areas of Somaliland and Bari Region. Moderate to high rains are foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands. As a result, the Juba and Shabelle River levels are expected to continue rising in the coming week.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 24-05-2019

The last few days have a seen a decline in rainfall activities in most parts of Somalia. Parts of Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Bay regions however recorded moderate to heavy rainfall. The Ethiopian highlands received reduced amounts of rainfall compared to the previous week. This led to a slight decrease in levels along the Juba and Shabelle rivers in Somalia. Field reports from Middle Shabelle indicate riverine flooding around Jowhar caused by open river breakages. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates light to no rains in Somaliland, Puntland and Central regions, while light moderate to heavy rains are foreseen in the southern regions. The cumulative seven days rainfall forecast shows that the southern regions as well as the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands will continue to receive moderate rains of reduced intensity until the end of the week. Heavy rains are expected in the coastal areas of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle which are likely to cause flash floods. It is worth noting that the Gu rainy season started late in Somalia, and the rainfall amounts recorded so far are significantly below normal, with poor temporal and spatial distribution. More rains are required to reverse the damage that has been caused by the poor rains. With the Gu rains season almost coming to an end, the existing situation may deteriorate further in all the water dependent sectors.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 09-05-2019

The Gu 2019 rains continued to spread across Somalia over the last few days. Many stations especially in the south have recorded light to moderate rains in the past three days. In the central and northern regions there were scattered rains, while in the Ethiopian highlands moderate to high rains were received over the same period. River levels along Shabelle continued with gradual increase, while the levels along Juba river started to decline after a sharp rise the previous week. Both Shabelle and Juba river levels are currently still below the long term mean for this period of the year. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days (Map 1) indicates light to moderate rains across the entire country, apart from the northern coastal areas where no rains are foreseen. The southern coastal areas are likely to receive moderate to high rainfall in the next three days. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 15 May 2019 shows moderate rains across the country. Along the southern and central coastal areas, and some selected places in Sanaag, Togdheer and Bari regions, the forecast indicates moderate to high rains in the coming week. Moderate to high rains are also foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands (Map 2). As a result, the Juba and Shabelle River levels are expected to slightly increase in the coming week.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 16-04-2019

Drought conditions persisted in most parts of the country during the first half of April. Pasture and water are in poor conditions and close to depletion in most areas of key pastoral livelihoods across Somalia. Significant rainfall amounts with good temporal distribution will be required to reverse the current state. The Gu rains normally start in late March in the north western parts of the country and late March / early April in the rest of the country. However, the rains came late in north western regions, and are yet to start in many other parts of the country, which creates doubts among the humanitarian actors in Somalia about the future food security and water availability. Local oceanic systems including the recent cyclones around Mozambique have weakened the rainfall generating mechanism in Somalia and the Horn of Africa in general. River levels increased slightly over the last few days following rains in the Ethiopian highlands. The levels are however below their normal in both Juba and Shabelle rivers during this time of the year.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 18-04-2019

Most parts of Somalia will remain dry in the next three days, apart from few areas in Somaliland and a few pockets in Bay and Bakool regions in the south where light rains are expected. The rainfall forecast for the coming seven days indicates the possibility of more rains towards the end of the week in Somaliland, most parts of southern regions and the Ethiopian highlands. Other areas including Puntland, and central regions will remain dry or receive minimal rains during the coming week. River levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers saw a slight increase over the last few days following light to moderate rains in the Ethiopian highlands. However, the levels are still way below the normal and more significant rains are needed to bring the levels back to normal.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 29-04-2019

The week ending 28 April 2019 saw moderate rains in parts of Juba and Shabelle basins both inside Somalia and in Ethiopia. No significant rains were reported in the Central Regions, Puntland and Somaliland in the same period. The good rains in Ethiopian highlands led to a slight increase in river levels inside Somalia, and consequently restoring the river flow in the lower reaches of Shabelle which had gone dry since February 2019. River levels are however still below normal at this time of the year. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates light to moderate rains in areas bordering Kenya in the southern regions with little or no rains in the rest of the country. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 05 May 2019 shows light to moderate rains within Juba and Shabelle basins both in Somali and within Ethiopian highlands. The Central, Puntland and Somaliland regions will remain dry, or receive minimal rains in the same period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 12-04-2019

Most parts of Somalia will remain dry for the next three days, apart from few areas in Puntland and Somaliland where light showers are expected. The rains are expected to spread further in space and time in both Puntland and Somaliland as the week progresses. This will come as a relief to the drought stricken regions especially for pasture regrowth and replenishment of ground water sources. The upper parts of Ethiopian highlands are also expected to receive moderate rains in the same period, this will lead to an increase of water levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. The Central and Southern regions will remain dry during the period in review. This will further exacerbate the existing dry conditions in the areas.

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Update on rainfall river level and likely impact - Issued 11 April 2019

The poor performance of Deyr 2018 coupled with harsh weather conditions in January – March 2019 has left many parts of Somalia facing mild to moderate drought conditions. This has led to serious water scarcity and earlier than normal water trucking across the country and in particular in Somaliland and Puntland. Shabelle & Juba river levels are very low; dried up river beds are seen in some areas.

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Status of River Breakages Shabelle March 2019

Following a poor rainfall season of Deyr 2018 (Oct – Dec) within the Juba and Shabelle river basins the river flows of the two rivers have since been significantly below normal. Reports indicate of drying river beds in some section of the Shabelle River during the month of February 2019. The situation is expected to improve in April given the GU 2019 rainfall forecast which calls for good rains within the catchments. FAO through SWALIM, has been involved in analysing and mapping the river breakages along the Shabelle River using very high resolution (sub meter) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) derived from earlier acquired aerial photographs having 3 meter resolution. Five types of breakages have been identified along Shabelle River namely; Open, Overflow, Potential Overflows, Potential breakages and Closed. The open breakages are those that were still open according to the latest satellite image analysed . The Overflow, indicates points where there has been recent river spillage causing extensive flooding. The potential overflows are those points that have high likelihood of overbank spillage but not overflowing at the time of analysis due to low river flows. The Potential breakages represent points that have very weak river embankments or have experienced several breakages in the past. The closed breakages are those that were previously open but efforts have been made to close them either with sand bags or heavy machinery. A total of 88 Open points have been identified, 44 on each river. In addition, 14 overflow points have been identified along the Shabelle River and none along the Juba River. More overflows could be expected when rivers level rises above normal rate. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have also been identified. With the Gu rains expected in April 2019, river levels will increase with a likelihood of flooding especially where open and overflow points have been identified. There is therefore an immediate need to close the open points and reinforce areas where there are weak river embankments. Temporary measures can be taken before the season begins. Maps of the status of river breakages along the two rivers, with detailed information, have been produced at large scale and hardcopies can be obtained from FAO SWALIM offices. This information is also available on the SWALIM website. It is worth noting that the methodology is biased towards Remote Sensing (RS) interpretation with only limited “ground truthing” due to access constraints. Open breakages and overflows might have been omitted or classified as potential in some cases where satellite images were not available or may not have been very clear due to heavy cloud cover and dense vegetation cover.

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Status of River Breakages Juba March 2019

Following a poor rainfall season of Deyr 2018 (Oct – Dec) within the Juba and Shabelle river basins the river flows of the two rivers have since been significantly below normal. Reports indicate of drying river beds in some section of the Shabelle River during the month of February 2019. The situation is expected to improve in April given the GU 2019 rainfall forecast which calls for good rains within the catchments. FAO through SWALIM, has been involved in analysing and mapping the river breakages along the Shabelle River using very high resolution (sub meter) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) derived from earlier acquired aerial photographs having 3 meter resolution. Five types of breakages have been identified along Shabelle River namely; Open, Overflow, Potential Overflows, Potential breakages and Closed. The open breakages are those that were still open according to the latest satellite image analysed . The Overflow, indicates points where there has been recent river spillage causing extensive flooding. The potential overflows are those points that have high likelihood of overbank spillage but not overflowing at the time of analysis due to low river flows. The Potential breakages represent points that have very weak river embankments or have experienced several breakages in the past. The closed breakages are those that were previously open but efforts have been made to close them either with sand bags or heavy machinery. A total of 88 Open points have been identified, 44 on each river. In addition, 14 overflow points have been identified along the Shabelle River and none along the Juba River. More overflows could be expected when rivers level rises above normal rate. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have also been identified. With the Gu rains expected in April 2019, river levels will increase with a likelihood of flooding especially where open and overflow points have been identified. There is therefore an immediate need to close the open points and reinforce areas where there are weak river embankments. Temporary measures can be taken before the season begins. Maps of the status of river breakages along the two rivers, with detailed information, have been produced at large scale and hardcopies can be obtained from FAO SWALIM offices. This information is also available on the SWALIM website. It is worth noting that the methodology is biased towards Remote Sensing (RS) interpretation with only limited “ground truthing” due to access constraints. Open breakages and overflows might have been omitted or classified as potential in some cases where satellite images were not available or may not have been very clear due to heavy cloud cover and dense vegetation cover.

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Somalia Drought Watch Bulletin - Issued 26 Mar 2019

The much anticipated Gu rains in Somalia may experience a delay owing to the ongoing cyclonic systems in southern Indian Ocean. The ocean systems have delayed the northward movement of the rain bearing zone – Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Further, this has reduced the influx of moisture expected in the East African countries including Kenya and Somalia. Following a poor Deyr 2018 season many parts of the countries have experienced prolonged dry periods that have led to mild to moderate drought conditions in the country. The worst affected areas being north eastern parts of Puntland central regions.

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Drought watch

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Update on 2018 Deyr Season Rainfall and Impact in Somalia

Following a below average Deyr 2018 (October-December) rainy season (Map 1) parts of Somalia are facing abnormally dry conditions, particularly large parts of the central and northern regions. The Deyr 2018 rainfall pattern in these region was poorly distributed in term of space and time. Most stations recorded less than five days of rainfall. The situation is expected to worsen during this Jilaal dry season (January–March) owing to the continued depletion of available water resources in the country until the start of the next rainy season of Gu 2019. The southern parts of the country was dominated by below normal conditions during the same period, However, a few pockets of Bay and and Bakool received slightly enhanced rains during the month of November 2018. The Ethiopian highlands that produce about 90% of the river flow in Somalia experienced depressed rains and this has significantly affected the river flow inside Somalia along the two major Rivers.

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Somalia Rainfall Outlook for Gu 2019 - Issued: 19 February 2019

Gu (April-June) is the primary rainy season in Somalia because it is more dominant in terms of quantity and reliability. Approximately 75 percent of the annual rainfall in Somalia is recorded during the Gu season. The Gu rains typically start in March/April and ends at different times throughout the country depending on the movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which is responsible for driving the rainfall. According to the recently issued consensus climate outlook for the Greater Horn of Africa (GHACOF51), the 2019 Gu rainy season in Somalia is expected to be near normal to above normal in most areas with warmer than normal temperatures across the whole country. There is increased likelihood of above normal to near normal rains with 70 percent probability of experiencing above normal to normal rains in Somaliland. The Ethiopian highlands whose rainfall contributes about 90 percent of the river flow in Juba and Shabelle rivers inside Somalia are also expected to record enhanced Gu season rains. The southern parts of Somalia, including large parts of central regions and Puntland will likely receive near normal rainfall. The coastal and adjacent parts of Nugaal, Mudug, Galgadud, Middle and Lower Shabelle Regions are expected to receive depressed rains with a higher percent probability of below normal to near normal rains

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 28-11-2018

The three days cumulated rainfall forecast is pointing towards light rains in scattered places across the country with Puntland expected to remain dry within the three days. Rainfall activities are expected to increase as seen in the one week forecast towards the end of the week especially in Southern and central parts of Somalia and the upper parts of the Juba and Shabelle basins within the Ethiopian highlands. Hot and dry conditions remain a concern in Somaliland and Puntland with the rainy season coming to an end. River levels along the Juba and Shabelle basins remain within the normal ranges with no risk of flooding given the rainfall forecast.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Deyr Rainfall Perfomance, 2018

The 2018 Deyr rainy season was generally poor with many areas in Somalia recording average to below average rains. This is contrary to earlier predictions of enhanced rainfall in the country. Some areas in Sool, Sanaag and most of the central regions recorded little or no rains during the season. The season started off well in the northern regions and ended early while the southern regions experienced a prolonged delay of the rains which ended in late November and early December. Since the beginning of December, good rains were recorded in the southern regions, however the accumulated amounts were not sufficient to fully erode seasonal deficits. Map 1 gives an analysis of the rainfall performance during the season based on the observed rainfall data and field reports while Map 2 shows a comparison of the seasonal rainfall compared to the long term mean based on satellite rainfall estimates data.

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Rainfall Performance

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 06-11-2018

The Deyr 2018 rainy season continued to spread in space across the country with poor performance during the month of October. Some parts are yet to record any significant rains since the season begun. The rainfall forecast for the next three days is calling for light or no rains in the country. The rains are expected to increase towards the end of the week to moderate levels of up to 40mm in the southern regions, west of Somaliland and the Ethiopian highlands. Most of central regions, Puntland and East of Somaliland will remain dry during the week. This calls for concern and close monitoring of the situation especially in Puntland which is already experiencing moisture stress due to the suppressed rains.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 14-11-2018

The rainfall forecast for the next seven days is calling for increased rains of up to 50—100 mm cumulative in the southern regions of Gedo, Middle Juba, Bay, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle and Hiraan. The Juba catchment in the Ethiopian highland is also expected to record moderate to heavy rains in the coming week. Somaliland, Puntland and central regions will remain dry during the week in review. Given the rainfall forecast, river level along the Juba are expected to rise in the next few days with minimal risk of flooding. There is a cause for concern in Puntland which has remained dry in the last two weeks. No rainfall is foreseen in this area in the coming week.

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