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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued: 18 September 2020

The Deyr 2020 rainy season (Sept/Oct—Dec) is expected to start in late September in the northern parts and mid October in the southern areas. However, some parts of the northern regions have been receiving rains since the first week of this month. On 16 and 17 September, heavy rains that led to flash floods and destruction of properties in KarKar district of Puntland were reported. About 300 people were affected by the flash floods in Duudhayo village. There was reduction of rainfall amounts within the Ethiopian highlands over the last week. This subsequently led to a slight reduction of river flow along the Shabelle River. However, river levels are still very high along the entire channel and flooding continue to be reported in parts of the riverine areas. In Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti, the river levels are still above the high flood risk level to date. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates moderate rains in Bari and Sanaag regions of Puntland and the coastal areas of Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba regions. Heavy rains are foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands during the week in forecast. This may lead to an increase of river levels along the Shabelle river thus increasing the risk of flooding especially in Hiraan region. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle while there is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba River.

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Somalia Rainfall Outlook for the 2020 Deyr Season Issued: 03 September 2020

Deyr (Sep/Oct-Dec) season rainfall is usually of shorter duration and less amount and intensity compared to Gu (April-June) season rainfall. However, they are beneficial in supporting seasonal agricultural activities and replenishing water and pasture resources. Generally, Deyr season starts in late September and ends in early December, but this varies from place to place across the country, with the northern regions receiving rainfall much earlier than southern regions. According to the recently issued Seasonal Climate Forecast issued by IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), the 2020 Deyr rains in Somalia are likely to be below normal to near normal with a 45 percent chance of experiencing below normal rains and a 30 chance of near normal rains in Somaliland, central and southern regions of the country. Similarly, the upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in neighboring Ethiopia are also expected to record below normal to near normal rainfall during the 2020 Deyr season ( Map 1. Most parts of Puntland have equal chances of (35%) of experiencing normal or above normal rains during the season. Further, the outlook predicts a delayed start of the season with warmer than normal temperatures.

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Flood Update for River Shabelle - Issued: 03 September 2020

Moderate to heavy rains persisted in the upper parts of the Shabelle Basin within the Ethiopian highlands during the last week. Consequently, observed river levels of the Shabelle River in Somalia continued to rise. Today, the river level at Belet Weyne is 8.00m which only 0.30m away from bank-full level. Overbank spillage within Belet Weyne town could happen any time from now given the high river levels. Currently, Hawa-Hako and Hilaac sections of the district are flooded since mid August and unconfirmed number of people were displaced. Massive flooding has been reported 20km north of Belet Weyne town in the last 24 hours due to overbank spillage. A similar trend of exceptionally above normal river levels is being observed in Bulo Burti, Jalalaqsi, Mahadey weyne, Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye districts with floods being reported in several points due to overbank flow and lateral flows from broken river banks. The flooding situation has been exacerbated by weak river embankments and open river banks. As of today, an estimated 132,000 ha of agricultural land and 294 villages along the Shabelle River have been affected by the Hagaa floods. The rainfall forecast for the coming week (03—10 September 2020) is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains within the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands. Observed river levels along the Shabelle River are expected to continue rising further in the coming week following the foreseen rains. High risk of flooding is foreseen in Belet Weyne district. Flooding in the middle and lower reaches of the Shabelle will be sustained in the coming week given the current situation and the foreseen rains. Areas to watch include Jowhar town and its environs; where the river level is near full crest and other riverine towns in the Lower Shabelle region. Recent analysis by SWALIM indicates that there are 109 open river bank points along the Shabelle River.

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Status of River Breakages Along Juba and Shabelle Rivers - Issued September 2020

Following three consecutive significant rainy seasons, (Dery 2019, Gu 2020 and Hagaa 2020-traditionally dry) river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers have remained high for a long period with flooding due to overbank spillage and existing river breakages/weak embankments. The high rains and subsequent floods of Gu 2020 saw new open river banks. SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers using available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM); supported by “limited ground truthing” field observations, where feasible. Four types of breakages have been identified, namely; open, overflow, potential overflows and closed with sandbags. The open breakages are those that are currently open as observed on the latest VHR image available. The open breakages are further categorised into four classes in a chronological order, according to the assessment date and/or their former status as seen in the maps. All the observations reported refers to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. 154 Open points have been identified, 109 on the Shabelle River and 45 on the Juba River which require immediate action. It is noted that several new breakages occurred during the Gu 2020 season which was exceptionally good along the two rivers. Belet Weyne district was worst affected along the Shabelle while Bu’aale district was worst affected along the Juba. SWALIM has also embarked on a ground truthing survey along the Shabelle River in Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye districts. The survey aims to monitor existing open and weak riverbanks while capturing the dimensions of each point. The findings of the survey will be key to planning and interventions on those points. SWALIM is pleased to share with you maps and tables of the status of river breakages along the two rivers in the links below. This information is also available on the SWALIM website. Users are advised that the methodology is biased towards Remote Sensing (RS) interpretation with only limited “ground truthing” due to access constraints. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear (e.g. heavy cloud cover) or were not available.

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Flood Update for River Shabelle - Issued: 08 September 2020

The upper parts of the Shabelle Basin in the Ethiopian Highlands continued to receive moderate rains during the last week. High river levels along the entire channel of Shabelle River also persisted with an increase of flood extents in Belet Weyne and Jalalaqsi districts. Today, 08 September, the river level at Belet Weyne is bank-full and there has been overbank spillage in parts of the town. Thousands of people have been displaced and have started to evacuate from high-risk areas to low risk areas since yesterday. In Bulo Burti, the river level is at high risk level of 7.00m and is expected to increase further. The river level at Jowhar remains high and is at 4.90m as of today. Flooding is currently reported also in Jalaalaqsi. The rainfall forecast for the week ending on 14 September 2020 indicates moderate rains in the Ethiopian highlands and minimal rains inside Somalia. Therefore, the levels are expected to continue rising along the entire channel of Shabelle as more waters from the eastern Ethiopian highlands are still streaming in. High risk of flooding is foreseen along the Shabelle during this week. It is advisable that riverine communities within low-lying areas of Belet Weyne who have not evacuated yet to do so, while following guidelines by the local authorities. Existence of river breakages (109 points identified and reported by SWALIM in Septemebr 2020) along the Shabelle is likely to exacerbate the flooding.

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Somalia Flood Update and Analysis in BeletWeyne - Issued 16-09-2020

Current ongoing floods affected more than 132,000 ha of agricultural land and 294 villages in Belet Weyne, Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye, a positive trend in flood frequency is observed in Belet Weyne, especially in the last 5 years. The severity of the floods has also gone up with time. Gu season is most vulnerable, as more floods occurred during this time, a positive trend of annual rainfall amounts has also been observed. This can be lined to climate change, but subject to further analysis,a new analysis of the status of Shabelle and Juba river was finalized by SWALIM indicates that there are 154 open river breakages which pose threat to flooding.

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Flood Update for Shabelle River - Issued 13 August 2020

During the last week, there was a reduction of rainfall amounts in the southern parts of Somalia. On 11th August, a heavy storm was observed in Somaliland in Salaxley area, about 60km south of Hargeisa. The rainfall station in that area recorded a total of 44mm in less than 24 hours. This led to a significant damage of infrastructure including schools, houses, roads, electricity and interruption of communication network in the area. Moderate to heavy rains persisted in the upper reaches of the Shabelle Basin in Ethiopia during the same period. Consequently, river levels at Belet Weyne and other stations along the Shabelle inside Somalia continued to rise. Todays’ river level at Belet Weyne is 6.85m which means less than half a meter below the high risk level of flooding. The rainfall forecast for the coming week (13-19 August 2020) is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains within the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands. Little or no rains are foreseen in the basin within Somalia. Observed river levels along the Shabelle River are expected to continue rising further in the coming week following the foreseen rains in the upper catchment. Flooding along the Shabelle will be sustained in the coming week given the current situation and the foreseen rains. Areas to be monitored include Belet Weyne, Jalalaqsi, Jowhar town and its environs where the river level is near full crest, and other riverine towns in the Lower Shabelle region. The situation could be further exacerbated by weak river embankments and open river banks.

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Flood Update - Issued 05 August 2020

Unusual Haggai (July—August) seasonal rains persisted in some parts of the southern regions of Somalia during the last week. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands also saw significant amounts of rainfall during the same period. Consequently, observed river levels of the Shabelle River in Somalia continued to rise over the last week. The current Shabelle river levels in Hiraan and Middle Shabelle regions are currently above the historical normal range while the levels are at bank full levels in Lower Shabelle. Flooding has been reported in parts of Belet Weyne district within Hawa-Hako and Hilaac sections displacing unconfirmed number of people. Other areas where floods have been reported include Mahadey Weyne and Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye districts. The situation has been exacerbated by weak river embankments and open river banks especially in Jowhar and Balcad districts where more than 20, 000Ha of land remains inundated. The rainfall forecast for the coming week (04—10 August 2020) is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains within the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands. Observed river levels along the Shabelle River are expected to continue rising further in the coming week following the foreseen rains. Flooding in the middle and lower reaches of the Shabelle will be sustained in the coming week given the current situation and the foreseen rains. Areas to watch include Jowhar town and its environs; where the river level is near full crest and other riverine towns in the Lower Shabelle region. There exists several open river bank points in these areas and this will only worsen the situation.

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Flood Update for Shabelle - Issued 11 August 2020

The Ethiopian highlands have received heavy rainfall since beginning of July 2020, which has caused significant increase in Shabelle river flow in Somalia. The river level at Belet Weyne today is 6.75m surpassing the moderate level of flooding in the area. In Bulo Burti, the levels are increasing steadily and today the river level is ta 5.40m, which is 1.10m meters below the moderate risk level of flooding. Flooding has been reported in Belet Weyne district following the existence of open river bank points and weak river embankments. According to analysis based on remotely sensed data, about 11 villages have been affected by the unusual floods while 6 km2 of agricultural land has been inundated in the district. This follows another flood season (Gu 2020) that saw massive destruction of properties in the area and damage of crops. It is worth noting that the existence of open river breakages and weak river embankments have exacerbated the flooding. Further, there has been massive sedimentation along the Shabelle River bed in the recent past, which has caused a rise in the riverbed with about 0.5 m. There are several ongoing efforts to mitigate the recurrent flooding in the district by the local communities, Hirshabelle authority and foreign aid. However, a long-term solution is needed which includes river basin management.

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Gu 2020 Rainfall Performance (March to June 2020)

The 2020 Gu rainy season was generally good with many areas in Somalia recording normal to above normal rains (Map 1 & 2 and Annex I). There was an early start of the season in late March in some areas and continued to spread spatially with a peak during the last two weeks of April. The season came to an early end during the second half of May. The good rains were beneficial to most water dependent sectors which saw a boost in the growth of pasture and crops in many areas and especially in the north eastern and central parts of the country which had a poor rainfall performance in the previous season. The rains also contributed to significant ground water recharge which had been depleted previously. There was also an improvement in animal body conditions thus more reproduction and availability of milk and meat. On the other hand, the heavy rains experienced in April led to both flash and riverine flooding affecting about 919 0001 people of whom 411, 905 were displaced and 24 killed. Further, along the Juba and Shabelle basins, more than 100,000 km2 of land was inundated as seen in Annex II. Belet Weyne town in Hiraan region was the worst affected by the floods and remained submerged for over two weeks. It is also worth noting that while the overall rainfall amounts for the season are mostly average to above average, there was a prolonged dry period since mid-May that is adversely impacting crop harvest prospects.

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Flood advisory for Lower Shabelle - Issued 24 July 2020

Observed river levels of the Shabelle River in Somalia have been rising for the past two weeks. This has been attributed to heavy rains in the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands and localized rains in Lower Shabelle. The current Shabelle river levels at the upper reaches in Somalia are slightly above the historical normal range, while the lower reaches are at bank full levels. This has resulted in over bank spillage leading to riverine floods in parts of Jowhar, Balcad, Genaale and Afgooye. About 24,000Ha land is currently inundated along the Shabelle affecting over 150 villages. The rainfall forecast for the coming week (24—30 July 2020) is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains within the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands and within Lower Shabelle inside Somalia. Observed river levels along the Shabelle River are expected to continue rising further in the coming week following the foreseen rains. Flooding in the middle and lower reaches of the Shabelle will be sustained in the coming week given the current situation and the foreseen rains. Areas to watch include Jowhar town and its environs; where the river level is near full crest and other riverine towns in the Lower Shabelle region. The situation could be further exacerbated by weak river embankments and open river banks. Along the Juba river levels are within normal for this period of the year.

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Somali Floods Update - Issued 02 June 2020

There was further reduction of rainfall during the week ending on 31 May 2020 as we approach the end of the Gu rainy season which usually ends in late May in some places and early June in others. A few pockets in the southern and northeastern regions however recorded light to moderate rains. In Somaliland, a heavy storm on 29 May led to flash floods in Hargeisa causing three human deaths and destruction of properties. The rainfall forecast for the week ending on 07 June 2020 is calling for rainfall amounts less than 50 mm cumulatively in coastal parts of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle regions. A few pockets of Bari, Sanaag and Sool will receive some light to moderate rains until the end of the week. Moderate rains are also expected in the Juba and Shabelle headwaters in Ethiopia during the forecast week. The rest of the country will remain dry. With the significant reduction of rains and subsequent decrease of river levels along the two rivers, there is no is foreseen risk of flooding this week and the coming one. Shabelle River: River levels at Belet Weyne, which remained at bank-full for 17 days since 12 May 2020, started to drop on 29 May 2020. Today, the river level is at 5.50m. The flood situation in the district improved greatly during the week with most water having drawn back to the river and residents who had earlier evacuated to higher grounds started to go back to their homes. However, some areas are still water logged with standing water posing a threat of waterborne diseases. In Bulo Burti the river remained high over the past week, with a section of the Indha Ceel village affected by floods. The river level at Jowhar slightly decreased and today it is at 5.05m, which is 0.50m below the high flood risk level. River levels have also started to decrease in the lower reaches and this trend is expected to continue before stabilizing in the coming week. No risk of flooding is foreseen this week. Juba River: There has been a drastic reduction of river levels along the entire channel. Flooding that was recently reported has reduced in middle and lower reaches. The river level at Bardheere today is at 5.32m which is about 3.0m below the high risk flood level. With no foreseen rains, the river levels will continue to drop this week and stabilize in the coming week. No risk of flooding is foreseen along the entire channel of Juba. In Bay and Bakool regions: Little to no rains were recorded during the week. The forecast for this week indicates reduced rainfall prospects in these regions with no flood risk anticipated. Somaliland, Puntland, and Central regions: One day of heavy storm that lasted less than an hour was observed in Somaliland leading to flash floods. In Puntland, there were light to moderate rains between 26 and 30 May in a few areas. The forecast for the coming week indicates light to moderate rains in few places of Bari, Sanaag and Sool regions. The rest of the area will remain dry.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 07 May 2020

The ongoing Gu seasonal rains in the country have led to disruption of road networks in some areas which have experienced flash floods and riverine flooding. The most recent affected area was Badhan district in Sanaag region that received heavy rains on 05 and 06 May leading to flash floods that left tens of households displaced. Unconfirmed acreage of cropland has also been destroyed. Flash floods were also reported in the wadis of Bay and Bakool regions which have been experiencing heavy rains since the beginning of the season. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is for increased rainfall in the southern regions as well as the Ethiopian highlands. In the next three days, moderate to heavy rains are expected in these regions. This is likely to lead to flash floods especially in Bay, Bakool and Lower Juba where the rains will be intensified. A reduction of rainfall amounts is expected in the northern regions which will record light to moderate rains during the week. The river levels in Gedo, along the Juba reduced slightly in the last three days while an increasing trend was observed in Middle Juba and Lower Juba. Flooding is expected to continue during the week along the lower reaches of the river. The River levels along the Shabelle River at Belet Weyne today is at 7.74m which about half a meter away from the bank full level (8.30m). Since last night flooding has been reported in parts of the district specifically in two sections of Hawo Tako settlement (Dhagax Jebis and Shaah Macaan) where residents have began evacuating. In Jowhar, the river level has remained at the high flood risk level of 5.30m for the last one week. Given the forecast and existing high river levels, flooding alert remains in place for Belet Weyne until further notice.

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Somali Floods Update - Issued 11 May 2020

The current Gu (April-June 2020) season rains continued with moderate to high intensity in many places across Somalia during the week that ended on 10 May 2020. The eastern Ethiopian highlands, which are responsible for most of the river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers, also recorded significant amounts of rainfall during the same period. Heavy rains led to flash floods in northern regions and riverine flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in the south. The rainfall forecast for the week ending on 17 May 2020 shows a significant reduction of rains across Somalia, with rainfall confined mostly to southern and coastal parts of southern Somalia. However, along the Juba and Shabelle rivers high to moderate flood risk is likely to persist in the next two weeks because of incoming river flow from the upper catchments. The high Shabelle and Juba river levels are expected to continue to threaten urban and riverine populations along the two rivers. Shabelle River: River levels continued to rise following heavy rains within the Shabelle River basin in both Ethiopia and inside Somalia. Mataban, Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti, Jowhar and Balcad rainfall stations recorded over 50mm in the last week. Today, 11 May, the river level at Belet Weyne is 8.10m, which is already above the High flood-risk threshold and just 0.20m less than the bank-full level of 8.30m. Parts of Belet Weyne riverine areas have been experiencing flooding since the end of last week, where many HH’s have since evacuated. The river level at Jowhar continued to rise slowly reaching 5.3m as of today, which is above the high flood-risk threshold and only 0.2m below the 5.5 m bank-full level. Flooding is currently reported also in Jalaalaqsi. Localized flooding continued in Tugaarey village within Jowhar district inundating over 500 hectares of farmland and displacing over 400 households. A similar trend has been observed in Balcad and the lower reaches of the river where flooding was reported in Kurtunwaarey. The levels are expected to continue rising along the entire channel of Shabelle as more waters from the eastern Ethiopian highlands are still streaming in. High risk of flooding is foreseen along the Shabelle during this week; and Moderate Risk the following week. It is advisable that riverine communities within low-lying areas of Belet Weyne who have not evacuated yet to do so, while following guidelines by the local authorities. Existence of river breakages (50 points identified and reported by SWALIM in February 2020) along the Shabelle is likely to exacerbate the flooding unless urgent measures are taken in river management. Juba River: River levels increased significantly in the last three days at Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere monitoring stations, all within Gedo region. Flooding has been reported for two days and expected to continue in the week due to the high flows being transmitted from Ethiopian and Kenyan sides. Using high-resolution satellite images, SWALIM identified more than 50 Km2 of flood-affected areas along the Juba since 23 April 2020 and has continued to increase to date. Affected areas include Dollow, Belet Hawa, Luq, Saakow, Buaale, Jilib and Jamame districts. Given the current high levels and rainfall forecast, there is a High risk of flooding along the entire Juba river channel this week; and Moderate Risk the following week. In Bay and Bakool regions: Moderate to heavy rains were recorded in Bay and Bakool regions over the last week. The forecast for this week indicates reduced rainfall prospects in these regions with no flood risk anticipated. Somaliland, Puntland, and Central regions: Since the beginning of the current rainy season in April, moderate to heavy rains have been reported in many parts of the northern and central regions. However, there was a reduction of rainfall in Somaliland while moderate to high precipitation were reported in parts of Puntland. Heavy storms in Baran (Sanaag region) on 06 and 07 May 2020 led to severe flash floods and destruction of properties and cropland. This week will see a reduction of rainfall amounts in both northern and central regions with no risk of flash floods expected.

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Somali Floods Update - Issued 18 May 2020

The Gu (April-June) season to date has seen significant rainfall across Somalia with many areas recording more than twice their average rainfall over the period. The rains which intensified since mid-April have been well distributed in terms of space and time. The heavy rains have left many areas water logged for weeks. In particular, the Juba and Shabelle basins have had excessive flows that will keep flood risks high during this week and at moderate risk in the coming week. On the down side still, the wet conditions and ample vegetation have created favorable conditions for the spread of desert locust infestation across Somalia. On the up side of the rains, there has been tremendous improvement of vegetation conditions and overall water availability throughout Somalia. In most parts of Somalia, Gu season rainfall usually start to decline starting in mid to late May. The rainfall forecast for the week ending on 24 May 2020 shows a significant reduction of rains across Somalia, with rainfall of up to 50 mm cumulatively confined mostly to coastal parts of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle regions. The Juba and Shabelle rivers’ high to moderate flood risk is likely to persist during this week due to continuing high flows from the upper catchments. Shabelle River: There was a reduction of rainfall amounts in the basin during the last week. River levels at Belet Weyne have remained at bank-full since 12 May 2020 to date, leading to extensive flooding of the flood plain riverine areas. More than 230 km2 have been flooded including 11 km2 of urban land and 225 km2 of agricultural land. The levels are expected to start going down at Belet Weyne in the next 2 – 3 days. The river level at Jowhar decreased slightly and is at 5.20 m today. River levels are expected to remain high in the lower reaches of the river as the lagged flood flows stream in from upstream reaches and rivers flow bank full through to Qoryoley. High risk of flooding is foreseen along the Shabelle during this week; and Moderate Risk the following week. Existence of river breakages (50 points identified and reported by SWALIM in February 2020) along the Shabelle will exacerbate the flooding unless emergency repair measures are taken. Juba River: River levels increased significantly beginning of last week at Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere gauging stations, all within Gedo region. Flooding that was reported has reduced although some farm lands are still under water in Dollow and Luuq districts. The river level at Bardheere has remained at 9.00m for the last seven days, but is expected to start going down in the next 2-3 days. Using VHR satellite imagery, SWALIM identified more than 10 km2 of flood-affected areas in Gedo region and approximately 140 km2 of inundated land in Middle and Lower Juba regions. Currently, affected areas include Dollow, Luuq, Saakow, Buaale, Jilib and Jamame districts. Given the current high levels in Bardheere, a High risk of flooding along the entire Juba river channel remains in place this week; with a reduction to Moderate Risk the following week. In Bay and Bakool regions: Little to no rains were recorded during the week. The forecast for this week indicates reduced rainfall prospects in these regions with no flood risk anticipated. Somaliland, Puntland, and Central regions: No rains were reported in the northern regions during the last week. This week will see a reduction of rainfall amounts in both northern and central regions with no risk of flash floods expected.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 21 May 2020

This week has seen a significant reduction of rainfall amounts in Somalia save for a few places in the southern coastal areas. This trend is normal as rains start to reduce in the second half of May in many areas while the coastal areas continue to record rainfall through June and July. In general, the seasonal rains have been considerably good across the country with some areas still experiencing the negative effects of the rains including Middle Juba, Lower Juba and Hiraan regions.

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Somali Floods Update - Issued 26 May 2020

The week ending on 24 May 2020 saw a significant reduction of rainfall amounts across the country. A few pockets in the southern and northeastern regions however recorded light rains. In general, the seasonal rain performance was remarkable and beneficial to all the water dependent sectors. The heavy rains within Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands since the start of the season resulted into excessive flows and flooding along the Juba and Shabelle basins. Analysis using very high-resolution (VHR) satellite images of flood extent along the Juba and Shabelle basins shows that the Gu 2020 flood extent along the Shabelle river is less as compared to the one detected during Gu 2018 and Deyr 2019. Along Juba River, the Gu 2020 flood is larger than the one detected during Gu 2018 but less than the one of Deyr 2019. According to UNOCHA, 836,128 people have been affected during this season within the Juba and Shabelle Rivers which is a larger number compared to that of 2018 and 2019. Further analysis of river flow at Belet Weyne shows that for the third year in a row a flood extent that would normally have a recurrence of 50 years has been surpassed. The rainfall forecast for the week ending on 31 May 2020 is calling for rainfall amounts of up to 50 mm cumulatively in coastal parts of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle regions. Bari, Nugal, Sanaag and parts of Sool will also receive some light to moderate rains until the end of the week. Moderate rains are also expected in the Juba and Shabelle headwaters in Ethiopia during the forecast week. A moderate flood risk along the two rivers is likely to persist during this week due to continuing high flows from the upper catchments. The situation is expected to improve in the following week with water logging abating due to high daily evaporation. Shabelle River: There was a reduction of rainfall amounts in the basin during the last week. River levels at Belet Weyne have remained at bank-full since 12 May 2020 to date. Flood waters that had inundated the town started to draw back to the river in the last two days and the situation will to improve in the coming days. The river level at Jowhar decreased slightly and today it is at 5.10 m. Using VHR satellite imagery, SWALIM identified a total of 445 km2 of flood-affected areas in the basin during this flood season. River levels will start to decrease towards the end of this week in the lower reaches of the river as the lagged flood flows stream in from upstream reaches. Moderate Risk of flooding is foreseen along the Shabelle during this week; and No flood risk the following week. Juba River: There has been a drastic reduction of river levels along the entire channel. Flooding that was recently reported has reduced in the upper reaches but some farm lands are still under water in Middle and Lower reaches. The river level at Bardheere today is at 6.18 m, which a 3.0 m drop from the last four days. Using VHR satellite imagery, SWALIM identified a total of 564 km2 of flood-affected areas along the Juba River during this flood season. Given the current situation, a Moderate Risk of flooding along the lower reaches remains in place this week; with a reduction to No flood risk the following week. In Bay and Bakool regions: Little to no rains were recorded during the week. The forecast for this week indicates reduced rainfall prospects in these regions with no flood risk anticipated. Somaliland, Puntland, and Central regions: No rains were reported in Somaliland while light rains were reported in Puntland on 25 May 2020.

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Somali Floods Update - Issued 04 May 2020

The week that ended on 03 May saw increased rainfall in most regions in Somalia. Heavy rains led to flash floods in northern regions and riverine flooding along the Juba River in the south. The significant rains received so far, follows another above average rainy season, observed during the Deyr (October-December) 2019 season. There has been a general improvement in pasture and ground water recharge across the country. The rainfall forecast for this week is for more rains, especially in the Juba and Shabelle river basins, while there will be a slight reduction of rains in the northern regions. Moderate to high flood risk is likely to persist at least through mid-May, threatening urban and riverine populations, including in Belet Weyne (Hiran) and Jowhar (Middle Shabelle). Shabelle River: River levels continued to rise following heavy rains within the Shabelle River basin in both Ethiopia and inside Somalia. Mataban, Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti, Jowhar and Balcad rainfall stations recorded over 50mm in the last week. Today, the river level at Belet Weyne is 7.20m, which is just 0.10m less the high risk flood level and 1.10m less the bank-full level. The river level at Bulo Burti continued to rise slowly reaching 4.55m today. In Jowhar, the river level reached 5.30 m, which is the high-risk flood level and has remained so in the last four days. Localized flooding has been reported in Tugaarey village within Jowhar district. A similar trend has been observed in Balcad and the lower reaches of the river. The levels are expected to continue rising along the entire channel of Shabelle as more waters from the Ethiopian highlands are still streaming in. High risk of flooding is foreseen along the Shabelle during this week and the following week. Further, reports from the Ethiopian catchment indicate high river levels and flooding in some locations. There is therefore a high likelihood that these waters will reach in Belet Weyne in two to 5 days, which will likely exceed bank full level in the area. It is advisable that the riverine communities within Belet Weyne to prepare for possible evacuation in the course of the week. Existence of river breakages (50 points identified and reported by SWALIM in February 2020) along the Shabelle is likely to exacerbate the flooding situation unless urgent measures are taken. Juba River: River levels were very high at the beginning of last week and started to drop slightly in the last three days in Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere monitoring stations, all within Gedo region. Flood waters started to recede back to the river in Bardheere and this has in turn led to an increase of levels in the downstream reaches where flooding continue to be observed. Using high-resolution satellite images, SWALIM identified 51 Km2 of flood-affected areas along the Juba for the period 23 to 30 April 2020. The worst affected areas are found in Saakow, Buaale, Jilib and Jamame districts. Given the current high levels and rainfall forecast, there is a High risk of flooding along the entire Juba river channel. In Bay and Bakool regions: Heavy rains resulted to flash floods in some areas within Bay and Bakool regions. In the last week of April, Baidoa station recorded 190mm while Dinsor recorded 110mm of rainfall. In Bakool region, 88 mm and 178 mm of rainfall were recorded in Hudur and El Berde stations respectively in the same period. Flash floods were observed in Qansadheere, Dinsor districts where around 124 Ha of crop fields comprising of Sorghum, Maize, Beans and Sesame were affected. Moderate risk of flooding remains in this area. Puntland, Somaliland and Central regions: Since the beginning of the rainy season, moderate to heavy rains have been reported in many parts of the northern regions. Heavy storms in Qardho, Bari region and Burao in Togdheer region on the night of 27 April 2020 led to severe flash floods leading to massive destruction of properties and loss of lives. In Puntland, more than 10 stations in Bari, Nuugal and Mudug regions recorded heavy rains of between 50 mm to 100 mm cumulatively in the last seven days. Moderate rains have also been observed in Somaliland. This week will see a reduction of rainfall amounts in both areas with no risk of flash floods.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 17 April 2020

The last two days saw an increase in rainfall activities across Somalia. Most stations within the Juba and Shabelle basins in the south, recording 50 mm to 70 mm cumulatively. Moderate rains were also recorded in Somaliland while Puntland regions saw light rains in the last two days. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall activities in Somaliland, Southern parts of Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. Heavy rains of up to 100 mm are expected in these regions. Bari, Sool, Nugal and Mudug regions are expected to remain dry during the forecast period. The foreseen heavy rains will lead to an increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia with no risk of flooding along the rivers. Flash floods may occur in built up and low lying areas of Somaliland, Middle Juba, Bay and Bakool regions where more rains are expected during the forecast period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 20 April 2020

As the Gu rainy season continues, moderate to heavy rains were observed in many areas across the country especially in Somaliland and southern areas in the last one week. Some of the stations that recorded significant rains include; Mogadishu (76mm), Luuq (172mm), Bardheere 68(mm), Buaale (130mm), Balcad (75mm) and Bur Hakaba 71mm. Light rains were observed in Puntland and the central areas. Heavy rains in the Juba catchments have led to a significant increase in river levels. At Luuq and Bardheere stations located in Gedo region, the river levels increased drastically (+1.00m) in the last 24 hours. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall activities in most areas inside Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. Heavy rains of more than 100 mm cumulatively are expected in within the Juba and Shabelle regions and in Somaliland. Cumulative rains of 40mm to 60mm are expected in Puntland and central regions. The foreseen heavy rains will lead to an increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia. Given the rainfall forecast and the existing high river levels along the Juba, there is a moderate risk of flooding along the Middle sections of the Juba River. Flash floods may occur in built up and low lying areas of Somaliland, Middle Juba, Bay and Bakool regions where more rains are expected during the forecast period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 23 April 2020

The Gu rainy season continued to spread in time and space within Somalia. Moderate to heavy rains were reported in many places in the last two days since the last update. Gedo, Bay, Bakool and Middle Juba regions in the south recorded the highest amounts of rainfall. Heavy rains were also observed in Somaliland where some stations received a total of more than 100mm in a single day on 21 April 2020. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall activities in most areas inside Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. The rains will be between today and tomorrow followed by a slight reduction of the activities thereafter. There has been very heavy rains within the Juba basin over the last 24 hours. Flash floods have been reported in Dollow this morning while the river level at Luuq is 0.50m away from the moderate flood risk level. The levels in Bardheere have surpassed the moderate flood risk level and flooding has been reported in the area. In Middle Juba region, the levels are also very high and expected to continue rising. There is therefore a High risk of flooding along the Juba River during this week. The River levels along the Shabelle River remain below normal at this time of the year. Given the rainfall forecast within the Ethiopian highlands, the levels are expected o continue rising with no foreseen immediate threat of flooding. There is also a High risk of flash floods in Bay region due to foreseen heavy rains within the next 24 hours.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 01 April 2020

The last few days saw a reduction of rainfall activities across Somalia with most stations recording light or no rains. The Ethiopian highlands did not record any significant rains as well. The rainfall forecast for the coming seven days is calling for a further reduction of rains in most areas except the southern most tip of the country in Lower Juba that will continue receive light rains. No rains are foreseen within the Ethiopian highlands in the coming seven days. With no rains seen in the last few days, the river levels have dropped slightly and remain below normal at this time of the year. The trend is expected to continue until more rains are received in Mid April.

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Somali Floods Update - Issued 27 April 2020

The 2020 Gu (April-June) seasonal rains continued to intensify across Somalia during the 4th week of April. Compared to the previous two weeks, there was a significant increase of rainfall in most parts of Somalia as well as the eastern Ethiopian highlands. Many areas observed more than three days of consecutive heavy rains across the country. The good rains received so far have continued to replenish water and pasture resources. An improvement in livestock body conditions and milk production has been reported as well. On the downside, parts of the country experienced flash flood and flooding has begun in the Juba and Shabelle rivers. Following heavy rains, river levels increased considerably along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers leading to flooding along the Juba. Flash floods were also experienced in Bay and Bakool Regions. Shabelle River: Heavy rains within the Shabelle basin both in Ethiopia and inside Somalia have led to a drastic increase in river levels along the Shabelle River. Most of the stations in the basin recorded 50 mm to 100 mm of rainfall in the last three days. In Belet Weyne and surrounding areas, river levels recorded a sharp increase in the last 72 hours, which has seen a rise of 3.50 m to 6.00 m as of today. This is only 0.50 m below the moderate flood risk level. The river level at Bulo Burti is 3.50 m, which is 1.5 m increase in the last 72 hours, and is 2.5 m below the moderate flood risk level; however, this is likely to increase rapidly in the next few days. In Jowhar, there has been a 1.00 m increase in river level in the last 24 hours following heavy rains in the area last night. A similar trend has been observed in Balcad and the lower reaches of the river. The river levels are expected to continue rising along the entire channel of Shabelle as more waters from the Ethiopian highlands are still streaming in. High risk of flooding is therefore foreseen along the Shabelle during this week and through early May. Existence of river breakages (50 points identified and reported by SWALIM in February 2020) is likely to exacerbate the flooding situation unless urgent measures are taken. Juba River: River levels increased sharply last week following heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands and within Somalia. Flash floods were observed in Dollow town leading to destruction of some business premises and houses. Further, riverine flooding has been reported north of Dollow town where the Dawa and Juba rivers converge, leading to inundation of unconfirmed acreage of cropland. Floods were also observed around Luuq town leading to inundation of cropped area. In Gedo region around Bardheere, river levels remain very high and have surpassed the high-risk flood level this morning. Flooding in the area started since 23 April 2020 and continues to date. Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions are experiencing high river levels with flooding being reported in these reaches. River levels are expected to fluctuate in the coming week with a high risk of flooding along the entire Juba river channel. In Bay and Bakool regions: Heavy rains resulted led to flash floods which have affected some IDP settlements within Baidoa town. Bur Hakaba, Baardale, Huddur and Qansadheere districts were the most affected. Moderate risk of flooding remain in this area. Puntland, Somaliland and Central regions: Since the beginning of the rainy season, moderate to heavy rains have been reported in many parts of the northern regions. In Somaliland, more than 10 stations in Woqooyi Galbeed and Togdheer regions recorded heavy rains of more than 50 mm to 100 mm cumulatively. Moderate rains have also been observed in Puntland; however, a few places in Bari and Nuugal regions have only recorded light rains during the month.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 08 April 2020

Most parts of Somalia will remain dry in the next seven days, apart from some areas in Gedo, Bay, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions, in the south where light to moderate rains are expected. Moderate wet conditions are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands within the week. Other areas including Somaliland, Puntland and central regions will remain dry or receive minimal rains during the week. River levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers continued to rise gradually but still remains below normal at this time of the year. The levels may increase further towards the end of the week with no risk of flooding.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 29 April 2020

The Gu rainy season continued to spread in time and space within Somalia leaving trails of devastating flood impacts in some locations. Heavy storms in Qardo, Bari region and Burao in Togdheer region on the night of 27 April 2020 led to severe flash floods leading to massive destruction of properties and loss of lives. In the southern regions, heavy rains within the Juba and Shabelle basins led to river flooding along the Juba River while the levels increased dramatically along the Shabelle. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall in most areas inside Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. Today, 29 April 2020, heavy storms are expected in southern parts of Wooqoyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Nugaal, Bari and Mudug regions in the northern regions. Parts of Bay and Bakool regions in the south are also expected to record good rains within the next 24 hours. Another bout of flash floods is high likely in the northern regions, especially Bari and Nugal regions, within the 24 to 48 hours period. Further, low lying areas of Bay and Bakool will experience the same given the forecast. The levels in Bardheere surpassed the high flood risk level, leading to severe river flooding in the area in the last two days. The flooding is expected to continue during this week. Floods are also reported in the middle and lower reaches of the Juba river. The River levels along the Shabelle River which increased sharply in the last few days are expected to remain so with high likelihood of flooding starting from 30 April 2020.

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