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Somali Floods Update - Issued 02 June 2020

There was further reduction of rainfall during the week ending on 31 May 2020 as we approach the end of the Gu rainy season which usually ends in late May in some places and early June in others. A few pockets in the southern and northeastern regions however recorded light to moderate rains. In Somaliland, a heavy storm on 29 May led to flash floods in Hargeisa causing three human deaths and destruction of properties. The rainfall forecast for the week ending on 07 June 2020 is calling for rainfall amounts less than 50 mm cumulatively in coastal parts of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle regions. A few pockets of Bari, Sanaag and Sool will receive some light to moderate rains until the end of the week. Moderate rains are also expected in the Juba and Shabelle headwaters in Ethiopia during the forecast week. The rest of the country will remain dry. With the significant reduction of rains and subsequent decrease of river levels along the two rivers, there is no is foreseen risk of flooding this week and the coming one. Shabelle River: River levels at Belet Weyne, which remained at bank-full for 17 days since 12 May 2020, started to drop on 29 May 2020. Today, the river level is at 5.50m. The flood situation in the district improved greatly during the week with most water having drawn back to the river and residents who had earlier evacuated to higher grounds started to go back to their homes. However, some areas are still water logged with standing water posing a threat of waterborne diseases. In Bulo Burti the river remained high over the past week, with a section of the Indha Ceel village affected by floods. The river level at Jowhar slightly decreased and today it is at 5.05m, which is 0.50m below the high flood risk level. River levels have also started to decrease in the lower reaches and this trend is expected to continue before stabilizing in the coming week. No risk of flooding is foreseen this week. Juba River: There has been a drastic reduction of river levels along the entire channel. Flooding that was recently reported has reduced in middle and lower reaches. The river level at Bardheere today is at 5.32m which is about 3.0m below the high risk flood level. With no foreseen rains, the river levels will continue to drop this week and stabilize in the coming week. No risk of flooding is foreseen along the entire channel of Juba. In Bay and Bakool regions: Little to no rains were recorded during the week. The forecast for this week indicates reduced rainfall prospects in these regions with no flood risk anticipated. Somaliland, Puntland, and Central regions: One day of heavy storm that lasted less than an hour was observed in Somaliland leading to flash floods. In Puntland, there were light to moderate rains between 26 and 30 May in a few areas. The forecast for the coming week indicates light to moderate rains in few places of Bari, Sanaag and Sool regions. The rest of the area will remain dry.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 07 May 2020

The ongoing Gu seasonal rains in the country have led to disruption of road networks in some areas which have experienced flash floods and riverine flooding. The most recent affected area was Badhan district in Sanaag region that received heavy rains on 05 and 06 May leading to flash floods that left tens of households displaced. Unconfirmed acreage of cropland has also been destroyed. Flash floods were also reported in the wadis of Bay and Bakool regions which have been experiencing heavy rains since the beginning of the season. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is for increased rainfall in the southern regions as well as the Ethiopian highlands. In the next three days, moderate to heavy rains are expected in these regions. This is likely to lead to flash floods especially in Bay, Bakool and Lower Juba where the rains will be intensified. A reduction of rainfall amounts is expected in the northern regions which will record light to moderate rains during the week. The river levels in Gedo, along the Juba reduced slightly in the last three days while an increasing trend was observed in Middle Juba and Lower Juba. Flooding is expected to continue during the week along the lower reaches of the river. The River levels along the Shabelle River at Belet Weyne today is at 7.74m which about half a meter away from the bank full level (8.30m). Since last night flooding has been reported in parts of the district specifically in two sections of Hawo Tako settlement (Dhagax Jebis and Shaah Macaan) where residents have began evacuating. In Jowhar, the river level has remained at the high flood risk level of 5.30m for the last one week. Given the forecast and existing high river levels, flooding alert remains in place for Belet Weyne until further notice.

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Somali Floods Update - Issued 11 May 2020

The current Gu (April-June 2020) season rains continued with moderate to high intensity in many places across Somalia during the week that ended on 10 May 2020. The eastern Ethiopian highlands, which are responsible for most of the river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers, also recorded significant amounts of rainfall during the same period. Heavy rains led to flash floods in northern regions and riverine flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in the south. The rainfall forecast for the week ending on 17 May 2020 shows a significant reduction of rains across Somalia, with rainfall confined mostly to southern and coastal parts of southern Somalia. However, along the Juba and Shabelle rivers high to moderate flood risk is likely to persist in the next two weeks because of incoming river flow from the upper catchments. The high Shabelle and Juba river levels are expected to continue to threaten urban and riverine populations along the two rivers. Shabelle River: River levels continued to rise following heavy rains within the Shabelle River basin in both Ethiopia and inside Somalia. Mataban, Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti, Jowhar and Balcad rainfall stations recorded over 50mm in the last week. Today, 11 May, the river level at Belet Weyne is 8.10m, which is already above the High flood-risk threshold and just 0.20m less than the bank-full level of 8.30m. Parts of Belet Weyne riverine areas have been experiencing flooding since the end of last week, where many HH’s have since evacuated. The river level at Jowhar continued to rise slowly reaching 5.3m as of today, which is above the high flood-risk threshold and only 0.2m below the 5.5 m bank-full level. Flooding is currently reported also in Jalaalaqsi. Localized flooding continued in Tugaarey village within Jowhar district inundating over 500 hectares of farmland and displacing over 400 households. A similar trend has been observed in Balcad and the lower reaches of the river where flooding was reported in Kurtunwaarey. The levels are expected to continue rising along the entire channel of Shabelle as more waters from the eastern Ethiopian highlands are still streaming in. High risk of flooding is foreseen along the Shabelle during this week; and Moderate Risk the following week. It is advisable that riverine communities within low-lying areas of Belet Weyne who have not evacuated yet to do so, while following guidelines by the local authorities. Existence of river breakages (50 points identified and reported by SWALIM in February 2020) along the Shabelle is likely to exacerbate the flooding unless urgent measures are taken in river management. Juba River: River levels increased significantly in the last three days at Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere monitoring stations, all within Gedo region. Flooding has been reported for two days and expected to continue in the week due to the high flows being transmitted from Ethiopian and Kenyan sides. Using high-resolution satellite images, SWALIM identified more than 50 Km2 of flood-affected areas along the Juba since 23 April 2020 and has continued to increase to date. Affected areas include Dollow, Belet Hawa, Luq, Saakow, Buaale, Jilib and Jamame districts. Given the current high levels and rainfall forecast, there is a High risk of flooding along the entire Juba river channel this week; and Moderate Risk the following week. In Bay and Bakool regions: Moderate to heavy rains were recorded in Bay and Bakool regions over the last week. The forecast for this week indicates reduced rainfall prospects in these regions with no flood risk anticipated. Somaliland, Puntland, and Central regions: Since the beginning of the current rainy season in April, moderate to heavy rains have been reported in many parts of the northern and central regions. However, there was a reduction of rainfall in Somaliland while moderate to high precipitation were reported in parts of Puntland. Heavy storms in Baran (Sanaag region) on 06 and 07 May 2020 led to severe flash floods and destruction of properties and cropland. This week will see a reduction of rainfall amounts in both northern and central regions with no risk of flash floods expected.

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Somali Floods Update - Issued 18 May 2020

The Gu (April-June) season to date has seen significant rainfall across Somalia with many areas recording more than twice their average rainfall over the period. The rains which intensified since mid-April have been well distributed in terms of space and time. The heavy rains have left many areas water logged for weeks. In particular, the Juba and Shabelle basins have had excessive flows that will keep flood risks high during this week and at moderate risk in the coming week. On the down side still, the wet conditions and ample vegetation have created favorable conditions for the spread of desert locust infestation across Somalia. On the up side of the rains, there has been tremendous improvement of vegetation conditions and overall water availability throughout Somalia. In most parts of Somalia, Gu season rainfall usually start to decline starting in mid to late May. The rainfall forecast for the week ending on 24 May 2020 shows a significant reduction of rains across Somalia, with rainfall of up to 50 mm cumulatively confined mostly to coastal parts of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle regions. The Juba and Shabelle rivers’ high to moderate flood risk is likely to persist during this week due to continuing high flows from the upper catchments. Shabelle River: There was a reduction of rainfall amounts in the basin during the last week. River levels at Belet Weyne have remained at bank-full since 12 May 2020 to date, leading to extensive flooding of the flood plain riverine areas. More than 230 km2 have been flooded including 11 km2 of urban land and 225 km2 of agricultural land. The levels are expected to start going down at Belet Weyne in the next 2 – 3 days. The river level at Jowhar decreased slightly and is at 5.20 m today. River levels are expected to remain high in the lower reaches of the river as the lagged flood flows stream in from upstream reaches and rivers flow bank full through to Qoryoley. High risk of flooding is foreseen along the Shabelle during this week; and Moderate Risk the following week. Existence of river breakages (50 points identified and reported by SWALIM in February 2020) along the Shabelle will exacerbate the flooding unless emergency repair measures are taken. Juba River: River levels increased significantly beginning of last week at Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere gauging stations, all within Gedo region. Flooding that was reported has reduced although some farm lands are still under water in Dollow and Luuq districts. The river level at Bardheere has remained at 9.00m for the last seven days, but is expected to start going down in the next 2-3 days. Using VHR satellite imagery, SWALIM identified more than 10 km2 of flood-affected areas in Gedo region and approximately 140 km2 of inundated land in Middle and Lower Juba regions. Currently, affected areas include Dollow, Luuq, Saakow, Buaale, Jilib and Jamame districts. Given the current high levels in Bardheere, a High risk of flooding along the entire Juba river channel remains in place this week; with a reduction to Moderate Risk the following week. In Bay and Bakool regions: Little to no rains were recorded during the week. The forecast for this week indicates reduced rainfall prospects in these regions with no flood risk anticipated. Somaliland, Puntland, and Central regions: No rains were reported in the northern regions during the last week. This week will see a reduction of rainfall amounts in both northern and central regions with no risk of flash floods expected.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 21 May 2020

This week has seen a significant reduction of rainfall amounts in Somalia save for a few places in the southern coastal areas. This trend is normal as rains start to reduce in the second half of May in many areas while the coastal areas continue to record rainfall through June and July. In general, the seasonal rains have been considerably good across the country with some areas still experiencing the negative effects of the rains including Middle Juba, Lower Juba and Hiraan regions.

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Somali Floods Update - Issued 26 May 2020

The week ending on 24 May 2020 saw a significant reduction of rainfall amounts across the country. A few pockets in the southern and northeastern regions however recorded light rains. In general, the seasonal rain performance was remarkable and beneficial to all the water dependent sectors. The heavy rains within Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands since the start of the season resulted into excessive flows and flooding along the Juba and Shabelle basins. Analysis using very high-resolution (VHR) satellite images of flood extent along the Juba and Shabelle basins shows that the Gu 2020 flood extent along the Shabelle river is less as compared to the one detected during Gu 2018 and Deyr 2019. Along Juba River, the Gu 2020 flood is larger than the one detected during Gu 2018 but less than the one of Deyr 2019. According to UNOCHA, 836,128 people have been affected during this season within the Juba and Shabelle Rivers which is a larger number compared to that of 2018 and 2019. Further analysis of river flow at Belet Weyne shows that for the third year in a row a flood extent that would normally have a recurrence of 50 years has been surpassed. The rainfall forecast for the week ending on 31 May 2020 is calling for rainfall amounts of up to 50 mm cumulatively in coastal parts of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle regions. Bari, Nugal, Sanaag and parts of Sool will also receive some light to moderate rains until the end of the week. Moderate rains are also expected in the Juba and Shabelle headwaters in Ethiopia during the forecast week. A moderate flood risk along the two rivers is likely to persist during this week due to continuing high flows from the upper catchments. The situation is expected to improve in the following week with water logging abating due to high daily evaporation. Shabelle River: There was a reduction of rainfall amounts in the basin during the last week. River levels at Belet Weyne have remained at bank-full since 12 May 2020 to date. Flood waters that had inundated the town started to draw back to the river in the last two days and the situation will to improve in the coming days. The river level at Jowhar decreased slightly and today it is at 5.10 m. Using VHR satellite imagery, SWALIM identified a total of 445 km2 of flood-affected areas in the basin during this flood season. River levels will start to decrease towards the end of this week in the lower reaches of the river as the lagged flood flows stream in from upstream reaches. Moderate Risk of flooding is foreseen along the Shabelle during this week; and No flood risk the following week. Juba River: There has been a drastic reduction of river levels along the entire channel. Flooding that was recently reported has reduced in the upper reaches but some farm lands are still under water in Middle and Lower reaches. The river level at Bardheere today is at 6.18 m, which a 3.0 m drop from the last four days. Using VHR satellite imagery, SWALIM identified a total of 564 km2 of flood-affected areas along the Juba River during this flood season. Given the current situation, a Moderate Risk of flooding along the lower reaches remains in place this week; with a reduction to No flood risk the following week. In Bay and Bakool regions: Little to no rains were recorded during the week. The forecast for this week indicates reduced rainfall prospects in these regions with no flood risk anticipated. Somaliland, Puntland, and Central regions: No rains were reported in Somaliland while light rains were reported in Puntland on 25 May 2020.

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Somali Floods Update - Issued 04 May 2020

The week that ended on 03 May saw increased rainfall in most regions in Somalia. Heavy rains led to flash floods in northern regions and riverine flooding along the Juba River in the south. The significant rains received so far, follows another above average rainy season, observed during the Deyr (October-December) 2019 season. There has been a general improvement in pasture and ground water recharge across the country. The rainfall forecast for this week is for more rains, especially in the Juba and Shabelle river basins, while there will be a slight reduction of rains in the northern regions. Moderate to high flood risk is likely to persist at least through mid-May, threatening urban and riverine populations, including in Belet Weyne (Hiran) and Jowhar (Middle Shabelle). Shabelle River: River levels continued to rise following heavy rains within the Shabelle River basin in both Ethiopia and inside Somalia. Mataban, Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti, Jowhar and Balcad rainfall stations recorded over 50mm in the last week. Today, the river level at Belet Weyne is 7.20m, which is just 0.10m less the high risk flood level and 1.10m less the bank-full level. The river level at Bulo Burti continued to rise slowly reaching 4.55m today. In Jowhar, the river level reached 5.30 m, which is the high-risk flood level and has remained so in the last four days. Localized flooding has been reported in Tugaarey village within Jowhar district. A similar trend has been observed in Balcad and the lower reaches of the river. The levels are expected to continue rising along the entire channel of Shabelle as more waters from the Ethiopian highlands are still streaming in. High risk of flooding is foreseen along the Shabelle during this week and the following week. Further, reports from the Ethiopian catchment indicate high river levels and flooding in some locations. There is therefore a high likelihood that these waters will reach in Belet Weyne in two to 5 days, which will likely exceed bank full level in the area. It is advisable that the riverine communities within Belet Weyne to prepare for possible evacuation in the course of the week. Existence of river breakages (50 points identified and reported by SWALIM in February 2020) along the Shabelle is likely to exacerbate the flooding situation unless urgent measures are taken. Juba River: River levels were very high at the beginning of last week and started to drop slightly in the last three days in Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere monitoring stations, all within Gedo region. Flood waters started to recede back to the river in Bardheere and this has in turn led to an increase of levels in the downstream reaches where flooding continue to be observed. Using high-resolution satellite images, SWALIM identified 51 Km2 of flood-affected areas along the Juba for the period 23 to 30 April 2020. The worst affected areas are found in Saakow, Buaale, Jilib and Jamame districts. Given the current high levels and rainfall forecast, there is a High risk of flooding along the entire Juba river channel. In Bay and Bakool regions: Heavy rains resulted to flash floods in some areas within Bay and Bakool regions. In the last week of April, Baidoa station recorded 190mm while Dinsor recorded 110mm of rainfall. In Bakool region, 88 mm and 178 mm of rainfall were recorded in Hudur and El Berde stations respectively in the same period. Flash floods were observed in Qansadheere, Dinsor districts where around 124 Ha of crop fields comprising of Sorghum, Maize, Beans and Sesame were affected. Moderate risk of flooding remains in this area. Puntland, Somaliland and Central regions: Since the beginning of the rainy season, moderate to heavy rains have been reported in many parts of the northern regions. Heavy storms in Qardho, Bari region and Burao in Togdheer region on the night of 27 April 2020 led to severe flash floods leading to massive destruction of properties and loss of lives. In Puntland, more than 10 stations in Bari, Nuugal and Mudug regions recorded heavy rains of between 50 mm to 100 mm cumulatively in the last seven days. Moderate rains have also been observed in Somaliland. This week will see a reduction of rainfall amounts in both areas with no risk of flash floods.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 17 April 2020

The last two days saw an increase in rainfall activities across Somalia. Most stations within the Juba and Shabelle basins in the south, recording 50 mm to 70 mm cumulatively. Moderate rains were also recorded in Somaliland while Puntland regions saw light rains in the last two days. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall activities in Somaliland, Southern parts of Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. Heavy rains of up to 100 mm are expected in these regions. Bari, Sool, Nugal and Mudug regions are expected to remain dry during the forecast period. The foreseen heavy rains will lead to an increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia with no risk of flooding along the rivers. Flash floods may occur in built up and low lying areas of Somaliland, Middle Juba, Bay and Bakool regions where more rains are expected during the forecast period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 20 April 2020

As the Gu rainy season continues, moderate to heavy rains were observed in many areas across the country especially in Somaliland and southern areas in the last one week. Some of the stations that recorded significant rains include; Mogadishu (76mm), Luuq (172mm), Bardheere 68(mm), Buaale (130mm), Balcad (75mm) and Bur Hakaba 71mm. Light rains were observed in Puntland and the central areas. Heavy rains in the Juba catchments have led to a significant increase in river levels. At Luuq and Bardheere stations located in Gedo region, the river levels increased drastically (+1.00m) in the last 24 hours. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall activities in most areas inside Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. Heavy rains of more than 100 mm cumulatively are expected in within the Juba and Shabelle regions and in Somaliland. Cumulative rains of 40mm to 60mm are expected in Puntland and central regions. The foreseen heavy rains will lead to an increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia. Given the rainfall forecast and the existing high river levels along the Juba, there is a moderate risk of flooding along the Middle sections of the Juba River. Flash floods may occur in built up and low lying areas of Somaliland, Middle Juba, Bay and Bakool regions where more rains are expected during the forecast period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 23 April 2020

The Gu rainy season continued to spread in time and space within Somalia. Moderate to heavy rains were reported in many places in the last two days since the last update. Gedo, Bay, Bakool and Middle Juba regions in the south recorded the highest amounts of rainfall. Heavy rains were also observed in Somaliland where some stations received a total of more than 100mm in a single day on 21 April 2020. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall activities in most areas inside Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. The rains will be between today and tomorrow followed by a slight reduction of the activities thereafter. There has been very heavy rains within the Juba basin over the last 24 hours. Flash floods have been reported in Dollow this morning while the river level at Luuq is 0.50m away from the moderate flood risk level. The levels in Bardheere have surpassed the moderate flood risk level and flooding has been reported in the area. In Middle Juba region, the levels are also very high and expected to continue rising. There is therefore a High risk of flooding along the Juba River during this week. The River levels along the Shabelle River remain below normal at this time of the year. Given the rainfall forecast within the Ethiopian highlands, the levels are expected o continue rising with no foreseen immediate threat of flooding. There is also a High risk of flash floods in Bay region due to foreseen heavy rains within the next 24 hours.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 01 April 2020

The last few days saw a reduction of rainfall activities across Somalia with most stations recording light or no rains. The Ethiopian highlands did not record any significant rains as well. The rainfall forecast for the coming seven days is calling for a further reduction of rains in most areas except the southern most tip of the country in Lower Juba that will continue receive light rains. No rains are foreseen within the Ethiopian highlands in the coming seven days. With no rains seen in the last few days, the river levels have dropped slightly and remain below normal at this time of the year. The trend is expected to continue until more rains are received in Mid April.

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Somali Floods Update - Issued 27 April 2020

The 2020 Gu (April-June) seasonal rains continued to intensify across Somalia during the 4th week of April. Compared to the previous two weeks, there was a significant increase of rainfall in most parts of Somalia as well as the eastern Ethiopian highlands. Many areas observed more than three days of consecutive heavy rains across the country. The good rains received so far have continued to replenish water and pasture resources. An improvement in livestock body conditions and milk production has been reported as well. On the downside, parts of the country experienced flash flood and flooding has begun in the Juba and Shabelle rivers. Following heavy rains, river levels increased considerably along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers leading to flooding along the Juba. Flash floods were also experienced in Bay and Bakool Regions. Shabelle River: Heavy rains within the Shabelle basin both in Ethiopia and inside Somalia have led to a drastic increase in river levels along the Shabelle River. Most of the stations in the basin recorded 50 mm to 100 mm of rainfall in the last three days. In Belet Weyne and surrounding areas, river levels recorded a sharp increase in the last 72 hours, which has seen a rise of 3.50 m to 6.00 m as of today. This is only 0.50 m below the moderate flood risk level. The river level at Bulo Burti is 3.50 m, which is 1.5 m increase in the last 72 hours, and is 2.5 m below the moderate flood risk level; however, this is likely to increase rapidly in the next few days. In Jowhar, there has been a 1.00 m increase in river level in the last 24 hours following heavy rains in the area last night. A similar trend has been observed in Balcad and the lower reaches of the river. The river levels are expected to continue rising along the entire channel of Shabelle as more waters from the Ethiopian highlands are still streaming in. High risk of flooding is therefore foreseen along the Shabelle during this week and through early May. Existence of river breakages (50 points identified and reported by SWALIM in February 2020) is likely to exacerbate the flooding situation unless urgent measures are taken. Juba River: River levels increased sharply last week following heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands and within Somalia. Flash floods were observed in Dollow town leading to destruction of some business premises and houses. Further, riverine flooding has been reported north of Dollow town where the Dawa and Juba rivers converge, leading to inundation of unconfirmed acreage of cropland. Floods were also observed around Luuq town leading to inundation of cropped area. In Gedo region around Bardheere, river levels remain very high and have surpassed the high-risk flood level this morning. Flooding in the area started since 23 April 2020 and continues to date. Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions are experiencing high river levels with flooding being reported in these reaches. River levels are expected to fluctuate in the coming week with a high risk of flooding along the entire Juba river channel. In Bay and Bakool regions: Heavy rains resulted led to flash floods which have affected some IDP settlements within Baidoa town. Bur Hakaba, Baardale, Huddur and Qansadheere districts were the most affected. Moderate risk of flooding remain in this area. Puntland, Somaliland and Central regions: Since the beginning of the rainy season, moderate to heavy rains have been reported in many parts of the northern regions. In Somaliland, more than 10 stations in Woqooyi Galbeed and Togdheer regions recorded heavy rains of more than 50 mm to 100 mm cumulatively. Moderate rains have also been observed in Puntland; however, a few places in Bari and Nuugal regions have only recorded light rains during the month.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 08 April 2020

Most parts of Somalia will remain dry in the next seven days, apart from some areas in Gedo, Bay, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions, in the south where light to moderate rains are expected. Moderate wet conditions are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands within the week. Other areas including Somaliland, Puntland and central regions will remain dry or receive minimal rains during the week. River levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers continued to rise gradually but still remains below normal at this time of the year. The levels may increase further towards the end of the week with no risk of flooding.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 29 April 2020

The Gu rainy season continued to spread in time and space within Somalia leaving trails of devastating flood impacts in some locations. Heavy storms in Qardo, Bari region and Burao in Togdheer region on the night of 27 April 2020 led to severe flash floods leading to massive destruction of properties and loss of lives. In the southern regions, heavy rains within the Juba and Shabelle basins led to river flooding along the Juba River while the levels increased dramatically along the Shabelle. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall in most areas inside Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. Today, 29 April 2020, heavy storms are expected in southern parts of Wooqoyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Nugaal, Bari and Mudug regions in the northern regions. Parts of Bay and Bakool regions in the south are also expected to record good rains within the next 24 hours. Another bout of flash floods is high likely in the northern regions, especially Bari and Nugal regions, within the 24 to 48 hours period. Further, low lying areas of Bay and Bakool will experience the same given the forecast. The levels in Bardheere surpassed the high flood risk level, leading to severe river flooding in the area in the last two days. The flooding is expected to continue during this week. Floods are also reported in the middle and lower reaches of the Juba river. The River levels along the Shabelle River which increased sharply in the last few days are expected to remain so with high likelihood of flooding starting from 30 April 2020.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 14 April 2020

The last one week saw a significant reduction of rainfall activities in Somalia with light rains being observed in scattered areas across the country as the Gu season continues to spread. The rainfall forecast for the next three days is calling for moderate rains of up to 50mm cumulatively in most parts of Somaliland, Southern regions and the Ethiopian highlands with the intensity expected to increase as the week progresses. The weekly cumulative forecast indicates more than 100mm of rainfall within the Juba and Shabelle river basins both inside Somali and within the Ethiopian Highlands. The same amount of rainfall is foreseen in parts of Awdal, Toghdheer and Woqqoyi Galbeed in Somaliland. On the other hand, light or no rains are foreseen in the central regions of the country. The foreseen heavy rains will lead to an increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia with no risk of flooding along the rivers. Flash floods may occur in built up and low lying areas of Somaliland, Bay and Bakool regions where more rains are expected during the forecast period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 24 March 2020

The Gu 2020 rainy season (March/April—June) has kicked off in some parts of the country since 20 March 2020. In Somaliland, Wajaale and Aburin stations recorded a total of 68mm and 40mm respectively with other regions receiving less than 30mm. In Puntland, Buhoodle and Baran stations recorded 30mm and 24mm respectively in the last two days. The last 24 hours also saw moderate rains in parts of the Juba and Shabelle basins in the south where Belet Weyne recorded 42mm and Buaale 13mm. The rains are expected to continue spreading in time and space during the coming weeks with the season expected to record enhanced rains before coming to an end in June 2020. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three days indicates light to moderate rains in many regions in the northern areas and scattered places in the south. Moderate rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highland whose rainfall is largely responsible for increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. The rains will then spread further as the week progresses with more intensity in the Ethiopian highlands and southern parts of Somalia. Most parts of the central areas will remain dry in the coming week. River levels are currently very low along the two rivers. Given the rainfall forecast, the levels will start to increase towards the end of the week with no risk of flooding during the forecast period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 27 March 2020

The Gu 2020 rains continued to be spread across the country in the last few days with moderate to heavy rains being recorded in the northern regions and light to moderate rains in the southern regions. The rains are yet to start in the central regions of the country. In Somaliland, Lughaye station and the surrounding areas received unusually heavy rains of 102mm on 26 March 2020. Hargeisa recorded 61mm while Gebiley saw a total of 40mm in the same day. The eastern side of Somaliland received light to moderate rains. Parts of Puntland also saw increased rainfall activities in the last three days with many stations recording good rains of between 20mm and 50mm. The southern regions also received good rains of about 20mm-50mm in the last two days. The rains are expected to continue spreading in time and space during the coming weeks with the season expected to record enhanced rains before coming to an end in June 2020. Moderate to heavy rains are expected on 27 March 2020 in the southern regions of Somalia especially in Bay, Bakool and the Juba regions. The cumulative weekly forecast is calling for a reduction of rainfall activities in the northern regions as well as within the Ethiopian highlands. The central regions will remain dry during the forecast period. There has been a slight increase in river levels over the last two days. The river levels are expected to continue increasing gradually with no risk of flooding during the forecast period.

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Status of River Breakages Along Juba and Shabelle Rivers - Issued March 2020

The Food and Agriculture Organization’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management (FAO SWALIM) Project, has finalized the analysis and mapping of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers using very high resolution satellite imagery. Breakages identified in the map have been classified into five different categories; Open, Overflow, Potential Overflows, Potential breakages and Closed with sandbags. A legend/Key for further explanation of the different types of breakages is provided here. The heavy rains during the Deyr 2019 rainy season led to increased flow causing overflow and riverbank breakages in sections of the two rivers. Henceforth, there was an increase of the open points from the previous assessment of August 2019. A total of 152 Open points have been identified, 100 on the Shabelle River and 52 on the Juba River which require immediate attention. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have also been identified. The Gu 2020 rainfall outlook is calling for enhanced rains within the Juba and Shabelle Rivers as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Consequently, river levels are expected to increase with a high likelihood of flooding especially where open and potential points have been identified. There is therefore an immediate need to close the open points and reinforce areas where there are weak river embankments. Intervening agencies are advised to take advantage of the current dry period until the rains start and carry out temporary or long term measures to close the river breakages. This will see a reduction of riverine flooding in case of heavy rains and consequently a massive reduction in economic losses to the country. SWALIM is pleased to share with you maps and tables of the status of river breakages along the two rivers. Hardcopies can be obtained from FAO SWALIM offices. It is worth noting that the methodology is biased towards Remote Sensing (RS) interpretation with only limited “ground truthing” due to constraints in accessing the areas. Open breakages and overflows might have been omitted or classified as potential in some cases where satellite images were not available or may not have been very clear due to heavy cloud cover and dense vegetation cover.

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Somalia Rainfall Outlook for Gu 2020

The Gu rains start in March/April and end at different times across Somalia, depending on the north-south movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which is the leading factor for the timing of rainfall in most parts of Africa. Most of the annual rainfall in Somalia (75%) is recorded during the Gu season. As a result, performance of Gu season rainfall is critical both for crop-dependent and livestock-dependent livelihoods across Somalia. According to the consensus climate outlook for the Greater Horn of Africa (GHACOF54) issued in later January 2020, there is a strong possibility (greater likelihood) of March to May 2020 rainfall being average (35%) and above average (35-40%) in most parts of Somalia with likely warmer than usual temperatures across the whole country. This also includes the Ethiopian highlands which contribute significantly to both Juba and Shabelle river flows inside Somalia. Some areas in the far northwestern parts of Somalia, including Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed and parts of Togdheer regions have higher chances of below normal (40%) to normal (35%) rains. The regional forecast further indicates a likely early start of the season in southern parts of Somalia. On the other hand, a delayed onset of the rainfall is expected over northern parts of the country which is also likely to have prolonged dry periods a few weeks after the start of the season. The expected average to above average rains will boost crop production prospects and replenish pasture and water sources in most parts of Somalia. This comes after a largely favorable rainy season during the October-December 2019 Deyr season, which will contribute to continued recovery among pastoral and agropastoral livelihoods that have previously been adversely affected by recurrent drought conditions. On the downside, riverine flooding along the Juba and Shabelle rivers is likely to occur along the entire channels of the two rivers. This will likely exacerbate the devastation that populations along the two rivers experienced during the 2019 Deyr season. Currently, there are many open river breakages along the two main rivers and this will likely worsen given the expected increase in river levels and consequent flooding during the forthcoming Gu season. SWALIM is in the process of updating the river breakages database which will be shared soon. Flash floods are likely to occur in low lying and built up areas especially in north east and central regions. The expected below normal rains in the far northwestern regions could lead to depletion of pasture and water resources with high likelihood of mild drought conditions towards the middle of the year. Therefore, communities should conserve and use available water resources judiciously. Despite the overall forecast described in the foregoing sections, local and month-to-month variations might occur as the season progresses. Sporadic rainfall events leading to flash floods are likely to occur even in areas with increased likelihood of near to below normal rainfall. Also, dry spells might occur in areas where enhanced rainfall is foreseen. FAO, through SWALIM and its technical partners, will keep updating this forecast for shorter lead time periods and share update information throughout the Gu season

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Somalia Tropical Storm Alert - Issued 07 December 2019

Strong winds and heavy rains reported in coastal areas of Puntland as tropical storm PAWAN Makes Landfall The north eastern parts of Somalia experienced extreme weather in form of a tropical storm since 06 December 2019. The tropical storm named PAWAN was associated with strong winds and heavy rains in some parts of Puntland with most stations recording high amounts of rainfall. The extreme weather conditions have led to destruction of property and infrastructure including roads, buildings and boats. Currently, flash floods still threaten many areas following the heavy downpour that is still being experienced in some areas. The rains are expected to spread further inland to many areas within Somaliland, Puntland and central regions. SWALIM and partners are monitoring the situation and will update you accordingly. For more details on tropical storm tracking you can consult: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ or SWALIM.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 09 December 2019

The coastal areas of East Arica have seen an increase in the frequency and strength of tropical storms since 2013, with one or two storms occurring each year since then. This can largely be attributed to climate change and the dynamic weather variation in the East African countries. Climate change studies further suggest an increase of such storms during the 21st Century. More studies are however needed to affirm and predict the storms timely for early action. Last weekend saw a tropical storm make landfall in the north eastern parts of Somalia. The tropical storm named PAWAN was associated with strong winds and heavy rains in some parts of Puntland with most stations recording more than three times their long term mean annual rainfall. For instance, Eyl recorded a total of 260mm while Dangoroyo received 198mm in two days. Other stations that recorded notable amounts include Hasbahale (80mm), Garowe (85mm), Iskushuban (75mm), Qardo (48mm) and Buuhoodle (52mm)among others. The extreme weather conditions led to livestock death as well as destruction of property and infrastructure including roads, buildings and boats. There has also been extensive erosion along the coast and inland. Currently, transport has been disrupted in many areas along the storm path making it difficult to render humanitarian assistance. Standing waters in some areas also pose an immediate danger of water related diseases. Positively, the heavy rains have been beneficial to the eastern parts of Puntland which had remained water stressed for a long period. There will be ground water recharge as well as pasture growth within these areas. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days (Map 1 and 2) indicates light to moderate rainfall in the southern regions and within the Ethiopian highlands. Consequently, this may lead to a further increase in river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. There remains a high risk of flooding along the Shabelle and moderate risk of flooding along the Juba in the coming week.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 03 December 2019

The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days (Map 1 and 2) indicates an increase of rainfall activities towards the end of the forecast period. Specifically heavy rains are expected in the northern and central regions from 07 December 2019. Cumulative amounts exceeding 100mm may fall in coastal areas of Saanag, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions. Given the forecast, there is a high risk of flash floods in the areas where heavy rains area expected. Of great concern is the fisheries and livestock sectors along the coastal areas which may be impacted negatively by the heavy rains. River levels along the Shabelle remain high and are anticipated to remain so in the coming week. There remains a moderate risk of flooding along the river. Observed river levels along the Juba increased sharply over the last two days following heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands. River levels at Luuq and Dollow are at moderate risk of flooding while levels at Bardheere are currently at high risk level. The high levels will be sustained in the coming days and are expected to start decreasing towards the end of the week.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 11 December 2019

The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days indicates light to moderate rainfall in parts of southern regions and within the Ethiopian highlands. River levels along the Shabelle continued to rise and are currently very high along the entire reach. Flooding has been reported in parts of Belet Weyne district and the river is only 0.40m below the bank full level. River levels along the Juba have been fluctuating over the last week. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation, there remains a high risk of flooding along the Shabelle and low risk of flooding along the Juba in the coming week.

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Somalia Tropical Storm Alert - Issued 04 December 2019

Tropical Storm SIX expected to cause strong winds and some rains across Puntland and Somaliland A Tropical Storm currently centred in the north Indian Ocean near the coast of Puntland is expected to intensify further and move in a south western direction and cross Mudug coastal areas between Hobyo and Eyl districts on 06 December 2019. Under its influence, moderate to heavy rain are likely to cause flash floods in some regions including Mudug, Nugaal, Bari and Sanaag starting on 06 December 2019. Strong winds associated with the storm may cause destruction of weak structures and fishing gears along the coast. While current forecasts indicate a low probability for the cyclone (10%), if the cyclone makes a landfall, it could have a devastating impact. This is why SWALIM is issuing the Alert. Communities along the coast are advised to take necessary precautions in the coming days. SWALIM and partners are monitoring the situation and will update you accordingly. For more details on tropical storm tracking you can consult: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ or consult SWALIM.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 05 December 2019

The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days indicates moderate to heavy rainfall in most parts of the country starting form 06 December 2019. Specifically heavy rains are expected in the northern and central regions from 06 December 2019, these rains area associated with the passage of a tropical storm which is currently located in the Indian Ocean. Cumulative amounts exceeding 100mm may fall in coastal areas of Saanag, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions. Given the forecast, there is a high risk of flash floods in the areas where heavy rains area expected. Of great concern is the fisheries and livestock sectors along the coastal areas which may be impacted negatively by the heavy rains. Further, heavy rains will be expected on 09 and 10 December 2019 within the Juba and Shabelle river basins inside Somalia and within the Ethiopian highlands. River levels along the Shabelle remain high and are anticipated to remain so in the coming week. There is a high risk of flooding along the Shabelle River. Observed river levels along the Juba increased sharply over the last few days following heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands. River levels at Luuq and Dollow are at moderate risk of flooding while levels at Bardheere are currently at high risk level. The high levels will be sustained in the coming days and are expected to start decreasing towards the end of the forecast period.

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