Based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country with chances of very light rains in some parts of Jubaland (Figure 1). Dry conditions are also expected over the entire Shabelle River catchment. Light isolated rains are expected over the Juba River catchment within and outside Somalia.

According to UNHCR, severe drought has led to the displacement of 156,000 people from Toghdeer, Sool and Sanaag regions in search of water and pasture. An additional 29,142 people have also been displaced across Bari, Mudug, Nugaal and Sanaaag regions due to drought.

Groundwater remains Somalia’s most critical and dependable water source, sustaining urban and rural populations, pastoral livelihoods, and productive sectors especially as surface water availability continues to decline during the ongoing drought. SWALIM has finalized the December 2025 Groundwater Status Update which indicates that aquifer conditions across the country are strongly driven by seasonal rainfall and are increasingly stressed by recurrent drought, high temperatures, and rising abstraction. Significant groundwater declines were recorded in parts of Somaliland and Puntland following poor Deyr 2025 rains, while central and southern regions generally maintained more stable conditions. Groundwater quality trends closely mirrored water-level changes, with higher salinity during periods of depletion and improvements following seasonal recharge, underscoring the close link between climate variability, aquifer dynamics, and water quality Despite these pressures, weekly monitoring data indicates that most strategic boreholes remain functional, particularly in south-central Somalia, ensuring continued access to water during the early Jilaal dry season. However, localized mechanical failures mainly related to pumps, power supply, and riser pipes have concentrated abstraction on fewer water points in Puntland and Somaliland, accelerating aquifer stress and contributing to rising water prices in some regions. Persistently low river levels along the Shabelle and Juba rivers have further increased dependence on groundwater for domestic use, irrigation, and water trucking. With hot and dry Jilaal conditions expected to persist and uncertainty surrounding the Gu 2026 rains, sustained groundwater monitoring, rapid rehabilitation of non-functioning boreholes, and strengthened demand management remain essential to mitigate escalating water stress and support informed humanitarian and development responses

Based on climatology, the month of November marks the peak of Deyr rains. However, according to NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country, particularly northern and central parts during the coming week (Figure 1). Light rains are likely over few isolated areas in Bay, Gedo, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions, and Sablaale district in Lower Shabelle region. The present status of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is strong but out-of-phase and is therefore not likely to favor any significant rain during the forecast period.

Based on climatology, the first week of November represents the climax of the Deyr rainfall season. So far into the season, Deyr rains have been below normal across most parts of the country. Given that the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index (Figure 5) is out-of-phase, and as confirmed by the NOAA GFS (Figure 4), dry conditions are forecast over Somalia including the entire Juba and Shabelle River catchments in the coming week. The Deyr season may actually come to an end in the coming two weeks ushering in the hot and dry Jilaal season. Based on the available observed and forecast data, the likelihood of flooding along both Juba and Shabelle Rivers remain low.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country, particularly northern and central parts during the third week of November (Figure 2). Light rains are likely over few isolated areas in Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Gedo, and Bay regions, and coastal parts of the following areas: Hobyo district in Mudug region, Caluul and Bosasso districts in Bari region, and Laasqoraay in Sanaag region. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is presently strong but out-of-phase and is therefore not likely to favor any significant rain during the forecast period.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, light rains are likely over some areas in the south with dry conditions expected to prevail in most other parts of the country, particularly Somaliland and Puntland (Figure 2). The rains in the south may be of moderate intensity over isolated areas in Bay, Lower Shabelle, Banadir, and Middle Shabelle regions, and over the coastal parts of both Galgaduud and Mudug. These light to moderate rain is likely to be observed between 22 and 24 November 2025.

Based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country with chances of very light rains in some parts of Jubaland (Figure 1). Dry conditions are also expected over the entire Shabelle River catchment. Light isolated rains are expected over the Juba River catchment within and outside Somalia.

Dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country, particularly in the northern and central parts during the coming week according to NOAA-NCEP GFS forecast (Figure 1). Synoptic forecast show that light rains are likely to be observed in Badhaadhe and Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, Saakow district in Middle Juba region, Bardheere and Ceel Waaq districts in Gedo region, and Buur Hakab district in Bay region. While most forecasts anticipate similar distribution of rain, ICPAC anticipates relatively intense rains particularly in some parts of Gedo and Bay region.

After the GHACOF-71, the 2nd National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF) for the October–December (Deyr) 2025 season was convened in Mogadishu, Somalia, from 2nd to 3rd September 2025 under the theme “Climate Science and Forecasting for a Resilient The major highlights were; Poor and late Deyr rains: Most of Somalia is forecast to receive below-normal rainfall, with a delayed onset, especially in the south. Hotter than usual: Above-average temperatures will worsen drought, water stress, and health risks Northern drought persists: Conditions in Somaliland and Puntland are expected to deteriorate further. Flood risks remain: Despite the dry forecast, localized flash floods and river overflows remain a threat in flood-prone areas Livelihoods at risk: Short and erratic rains will limit farming recovery and stress livestock. Therefore, urgent need for drought response in the north, safeguarding gains in the south, proactive flood, water, and health preparedness