Based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country with chances of very light rains in some parts of Jubaland (Figure 1). Dry conditions are also expected over the entire Shabelle River catchment. Light isolated rains are expected over the Juba River catchment within and outside Somalia.

Based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country with chances of very light rains in some parts of Jubaland (Figure 1). Dry conditions are also expected over the entire Shabelle River catchment. Light isolated rains are expected over the Juba River catchment within and outside Somalia.

Based on climatology, the first week of November represents the climax of the Deyr rainfall season. So far into the season, Deyr rains have been below normal across most parts of the country. Given that the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index (Figure 5) is out-of-phase, and as confirmed by the NOAA GFS (Figure 4), dry conditions are forecast over Somalia including the entire Juba and Shabelle River catchments in the coming week. The Deyr season may actually come to an end in the coming two weeks ushering in the hot and dry Jilaal season. Based on the available observed and forecast data, the likelihood of flooding along both Juba and Shabelle Rivers remain low.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country, particularly northern and central parts during the third week of November (Figure 2). Light rains are likely over few isolated areas in Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Gedo, and Bay regions, and coastal parts of the following areas: Hobyo district in Mudug region, Caluul and Bosasso districts in Bari region, and Laasqoraay in Sanaag region. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is presently strong but out-of-phase and is therefore not likely to favor any significant rain during the forecast period.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, light rains are likely over some areas in the south with dry conditions expected to prevail in most other parts of the country, particularly Somaliland and Puntland (Figure 2). The rains in the south may be of moderate intensity over isolated areas in Bay, Lower Shabelle, Banadir, and Middle Shabelle regions, and over the coastal parts of both Galgaduud and Mudug. These light to moderate rain is likely to be observed between 22 and 24 November 2025.

Based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country with chances of very light rains in some parts of Jubaland (Figure 1). Dry conditions are also expected over the entire Shabelle River catchment. Light isolated rains are expected over the Juba River catchment within and outside Somalia.

Based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country with chances of very light rains in some parts of Jubaland (Figure 1). Dry conditions are also expected over the entire Shabelle River catchment. Light isolated rains are expected over the Juba River catchment within and outside Somalia.

Based on climatology, the month of November marks the peak of Deyr rains. However, according to NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country, particularly northern and central parts during the coming week (Figure 1). Light rains are likely over few isolated areas in Bay, Gedo, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions, and Sablaale district in Lower Shabelle region. The present status of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is strong but out-of-phase and is therefore not likely to favor any significant rain during the forecast period.

Based on the ICPAC seasonal forecast, the Deyr rains are likely to begin in the first dekad of October in Togdheer, Sool and Nugaal regions. According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, widespread light rainfall is expected over most parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag and Hiraan regions and some inland parts of Nugaal, Mudug, and Galgaduud regions. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50.0 and 100.0 mm is forecast over northern parts of Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region; northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region; southwestern parts of Qardo district in Bari region; eastern parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region; western and eastern parts of Buuhodle district in Togdheer region; and western parts of Laas Caanood district in Sool region. The intensity of the rains over northern parts of both Hargeisa and Ceerigaabo districts may lead up to more than 100 mm at the end of the forecast week. Heavy rainfall above 150 mm is likely over the upper catchments of Shabelle River in Ethiopia in the far north-eastern highlands of Gode city. Light rainfall of less than 50.0 mm is expected over most other parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions; and most other parts of Qardo, Bulo Burte, Buuhodle, and Laas Caanood districts. Similarly light rains are also expected over most parts of Borama and Baki districts in Awdal region; Qandala and Bandarbeyla districts in Bari region; Garowe and Burtinle districts in Nugaal region; Galkacyo district and inland parts of bothJ ariiban and Hobyo districts in Mudug region; Cadaado, Dhuusamarreeb and Cabudwaaq districts in Galgaduud region; Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region; Ceel Barde and Tayeglow districts in Bakool region and Baydhaba district in Bay region. Similar light rains are expected over the Shabelle River catchment within Somalia. Dry conditions are likely over most parts of the following regions: Lower Juba, Middel Juba, Gedo, Lower Shabelle, and Middel Shabelle. Similar conditions are expected over Dinsoor district in Bay region; Rab Dhuure and Waajid districts in Bakool region; Ceel Dheer and Xaradheere districts in Galgaduud region; coastal parts of both Hobyo and Jariiban districts in Mudug region; coastal parts of Eyl district in Nugaal region; Iskushuban, Caluula and Bossaso districts in Bari region; and Zeylac and Lughaye districts in Awdal region. Similar dry conditions are likely over most areas over the Juba River catchment within and outside Somalia.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, widespread light to moderate rainfall is expected over most parts of central Somalia including Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan, Middel Shabelle, Bay and Bakool regions. The north and southmost parts of the country are expected to remain dry. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions are as follows (Figure 1): Moderate rainfall of between 50.0 and 100.0 mm is forecast over most parts of Galkacyo district in Mudug, central parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal, central parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool and central parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region which forms the middle section of the Shabelle River in Somalia. Rains of similar moderate intensity are also likely over the uppermost catchment of Shabelle River in Ethiopia. Light rainfall of less than 50.0 mm is expected over most other parts of Mudug, Nugaal, Bakool and Hiraan regions. Rains of lighter intensity are also likely over most parts of Galgaduud, Middle Shabelle, and Bay regions, Luuq district in Gedo region, Bu’aale district in Middel Juba region, southern parts of Qardo and Bandarveyla districts in Bari region. Similar light rains are expected over the middle and upper sections of the Juba River catchment and over upper portions of Shabelle River catchment within Somalia. Dry conditions are likely over most parts of Somaliland including Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag regions; most parts of Bari, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, and Lower Shabelle regions. Dry conditions are also likely to prevail over most parts of Garowe district in Nugaal region; Cadaado and Cabudwaaq districts and eastern parts of Ceel Buur district in Galgaduud; Jilib abd Saakow districts in Middle Juba region; Baardheere, Ceel Waaq, Garbahaarey, Belet Xaawo and Dollow districts in Gedo region;and coastal parts of Middle Shabelle including Banadir. Similar dry conditions are likely over most areas over the lower sections of the Juba River catchment within Somalia.