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Somalia GU Rainfall Performance-Issued on 19 July 2019

The Overall 2019 Gu season rainfall performance was normal to below normal in terms of amount but highly erratic and poorly distributed. The rains started a month late in most areas leading to a prolonged dry period in some areas and moderate drought conditions in others especially during March and April. The last half of May saw increased rainfall activity, including heavy storms that lasted a few hours and distributed within a period of less than ten days during the whole season. Some places received more than 200mm of rainfall especially in the southern regions and a few pockets of Somaliland which is normal for this season. Bari region and the east parts of Sool and Sanag regions in the north recorded the least amounts of rainfall of 30 to 75 mm.

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Rainfall Performance

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 06-06-2019

There were increased rainfall activities across the country during the last few days of May and first three days of June. Heavy rains which led to flash floods were reported in Puntland. Some stations recorded more than 50mm in a single day. The Southern regions also recorded moderate rains during the last week of May. The rains came as immediate relief following a prolonged water stressed period. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates light rains in the northern coastal areas of Puntland and Somaliland. The rains will then spread further inland as the week progresses but with lesser magnitude compared to the previous week. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands will also receive good rains towards the end of the week.The central regions and large parts of southern regions except Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle will remain dry in the coming week save for the coastal areas of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle regions.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 22-05-2019

The last week saw increased rainfall activities in most parts of the country which however did not last for long. The Ethiopian highlands also recorded good amounts of rainfall which saw sharp increases in the river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates light rains in a few pockets of Somaliland while moderate to heavy rains are foreseen in the southern regions. The cumulative seven days rainfall forecast shows that the southern regions as well as the Ethiopian highlands will continue to receive moderate rains until the end of the week. Other parts of Puntland and central regions are expected to receive little or no rains during the coming week. It is worth noting that the Gu rainy season started late in Somalia, and the rainfall amounts recorded so far are significantly below normal, with poor temporal and spatial distribution. More rains are required to reverse the damage that has been caused by the poor rains. With no significant rains foreseen until the end of the season, the existing situation may deteriorate further in all the water dependent sectors.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 03-05-2019

The Gu 2019 rainy season started late in many places across the country and have so far been characterized with low amounts of rainfall, poor temporal and spatial distribution. However, a few places are yet to receive the much awaited rains. Moderate rains within the Ethiopian highlands led to a gradual increase in river levels inside Somalia, which are still significantly below normal at this time of the year. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates moderate rains in the southern regions with little or no rains in the rest of the country. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 09 May 2019 shows moderate rains across the central and southern regions of Somalia and within Ethiopian highlands. Light rains are expected in Puntland and Somaliland regions during the forecast period.

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Somalia 2019 Gu Season Rainfall Update - Issued on 22 May 2019

The 2019 Gu (March/April-June) season rainfall season was marked by a delayed start in most parts of the country. The distribution of the rains have been poor in terms of quantity, temporal and spatial distribution throughout March and May. The month of May saw increased rainfall activities in the first half of the month with some stations recording moderate to heavy rains. Although this comes very too late for most crop growing areas, the rains in May led to replenishment of pasture and ground water sources in most of the pastoral areas that have been affected by moderate to severe drought since January 2019. Exacerbated by below-average 2018 Deyr (October-December) season rainfall, the cumulative 2019 Gu season rainfall is way below the long-term average and not sufficient to fully address the water shortage across Somalia. As a result, Mild to moderate drought conditions are still present in many areas across the country. An update will be issued every 10-days throughout the remainder of the season.

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Dekadal Rainfall Update

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 06-05-2019

The temporal and spatial distribution of the Gu 2019 rains continue to improve across Somalia. The rains started late in April, with many places across the country recording low rainfall or remaining dry to the end of the month. The situation has however improved over the last few days, especially in the southern parts of the country where moderate rains have been recorded in some stations. The Ethiopian highlands have also received moderate to high rains over the last two weeks, resulting to gradual increase in River levels along Juba and Shabelle. With the current steady rise, the river levels are expected to reach the normal level for this time of the year within the coming one week. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates light to moderate rains in many parts of the country, apart from Bari Region and the coastal areas of Somaliland where little or no rains condition is foreseen for this period. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 13 May 2019 shows moderate rains across the country, and less rains along the coastal areas of Somaliland and Bari Region. Moderate to high rains are foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands. As a result, the Juba and Shabelle River levels are expected to continue rising in the coming week.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 24-05-2019

The last few days have a seen a decline in rainfall activities in most parts of Somalia. Parts of Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Bay regions however recorded moderate to heavy rainfall. The Ethiopian highlands received reduced amounts of rainfall compared to the previous week. This led to a slight decrease in levels along the Juba and Shabelle rivers in Somalia. Field reports from Middle Shabelle indicate riverine flooding around Jowhar caused by open river breakages. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates light to no rains in Somaliland, Puntland and Central regions, while light moderate to heavy rains are foreseen in the southern regions. The cumulative seven days rainfall forecast shows that the southern regions as well as the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands will continue to receive moderate rains of reduced intensity until the end of the week. Heavy rains are expected in the coastal areas of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle which are likely to cause flash floods. It is worth noting that the Gu rainy season started late in Somalia, and the rainfall amounts recorded so far are significantly below normal, with poor temporal and spatial distribution. More rains are required to reverse the damage that has been caused by the poor rains. With the Gu rains season almost coming to an end, the existing situation may deteriorate further in all the water dependent sectors.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 09-05-2019

The Gu 2019 rains continued to spread across Somalia over the last few days. Many stations especially in the south have recorded light to moderate rains in the past three days. In the central and northern regions there were scattered rains, while in the Ethiopian highlands moderate to high rains were received over the same period. River levels along Shabelle continued with gradual increase, while the levels along Juba river started to decline after a sharp rise the previous week. Both Shabelle and Juba river levels are currently still below the long term mean for this period of the year. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days (Map 1) indicates light to moderate rains across the entire country, apart from the northern coastal areas where no rains are foreseen. The southern coastal areas are likely to receive moderate to high rainfall in the next three days. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 15 May 2019 shows moderate rains across the country. Along the southern and central coastal areas, and some selected places in Sanaag, Togdheer and Bari regions, the forecast indicates moderate to high rains in the coming week. Moderate to high rains are also foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands (Map 2). As a result, the Juba and Shabelle River levels are expected to slightly increase in the coming week.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 28-05-2019

The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates light to moderate rains in the coastal areas of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle regions. Moderate to heavy rains of more than 50mm cumulatively are expected in Sool and parts of Nugaal regions in Puntland starting from 29 May 2019 with a moderate risk of flash floods in built up and low lying areas. The rains are expected to spread further in space and intensity as the week progresses with good rains expected in many areas across Somaliland and Puntland towards the end of the week. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands will also receive good rains towards the end of the week. The central regions and large parts of southern regions except Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle will remain dry in the coming week. Insufficient soil moisture is a primary factor limiting crop, forage and pasture growth in Somalia. The temporal distribution of the seasonal rainfall is paramount compared to the total quantity rainfall in the season. The Gu rains of 2019 has seen unreliable short spans of rain storms across the country which are not dependable to the water dependent sectors, the crops and pasture require some rainfall to remain productive. For instance, some stations have recorded only one day of rainfall since the start of the season with some exceeding 50mm in the one day rainfall. Such rainfall is rendered ineffective for crop and pasture growth while it would be effective for rainwater harvesting and refill of surface water reservoirs.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 13-05-2019

The Gu 2019 rains continued to spread across Somalia over the last week with many stations recording moderate to heavy rains of more than 50mm total rainfall. Moderate to high rains were also received in Ethiopian highlands over the same period. River levels along the Shabelle continued to increase, while the levels along Juba river dropped slightly. Both Shabelle and Juba river levels are currently below the long term mean for this period of the year. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days (Map 1) indicates light to moderate rains across the entire country, apart from Somaliland and parts of southern regions around Gedo where little no rains are foreseen. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 19 May 2019 shows moderate to heavy rains across the country as well as the Ethiopian highlands (Map 2). Heavy rains in Mudug and Galgaduud regions bordering Ethiopia may lead to flash floods. Given the rainfall forecast, the Juba and Shabelle River levels are expected to increase slightly in the coming week.

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