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Saadaasha Roob-di’idda Soomaaliya - 01 April 2020

Dhowrkii maalin oo dambe roob-di’iddii waa yaraatay guud ahaan Soomaaliya iyadoo xarumaha badankood ay diiwaangeliyeen roobab fudfud ama roob la’aan. Sidoo kaleb Buuraleyda sare ee Itoobiya qudheedu ma aysan diiwaangelin roobab macna leh. Saadaasha roob-di’idda ee todobada maalin oo socota waxay leedahay roobabku waa sii yaraanayaan meelaha intooda badan marka laga reebo koonfurta cirifika u dambeeya dalka gudaha Jubada Hoose halkaas oo ay ka sii socon doonaan roobab fudfud. Ma jiraan roobab laga odorosayo gudaha buuraleyda Itoobiya toddobada maalin ee soo socota. Roobab la’aanta la arkay dhowrkii maalin oo dambe, waxay keentay in heerarka webigu ay hoos u yara dhacaan oo ay gaaraan heer caadiga ka hooseysa waqtigaan kale sanadka. Waxaa la filayaa in xaaladda ay sidaas ku sii socoto ilaa roobab la helo bartamaha Abriil. Macaamiisha waxaa lala socodsiinayaa in tani tahay saadaal oo marmarka qaarkood ay kala duwanaadaan qiyaasaha iyo xaddiyada dhabta ah ee roobabka la helay. Macluumaadka saadaasha iyo heerarka webiga la arko waxaa loo cusboonaysinayaa si maalinle ah oo waxaa laga heli karaa xiriir kan: http://frrims.faoswalim.org.

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Rainfall Outlook

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 23 April 2020

The Gu rainy season continued to spread in time and space within Somalia. Moderate to heavy rains were reported in many places in the last two days since the last update. Gedo, Bay, Bakool and Middle Juba regions in the south recorded the highest amounts of rainfall. Heavy rains were also observed in Somaliland where some stations received a total of more than 100mm in a single day on 21 April 2020. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall activities in most areas inside Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. The rains will be between today and tomorrow followed by a slight reduction of the activities thereafter. There has been very heavy rains within the Juba basin over the last 24 hours. Flash floods have been reported in Dollow this morning while the river level at Luuq is 0.50m away from the moderate flood risk level. The levels in Bardheere have surpassed the moderate flood risk level and flooding has been reported in the area. In Middle Juba region, the levels are also very high and expected to continue rising. There is therefore a High risk of flooding along the Juba River during this week. The River levels along the Shabelle River remain below normal at this time of the year. Given the rainfall forecast within the Ethiopian highlands, the levels are expected o continue rising with no foreseen immediate threat of flooding. There is also a High risk of flash floods in Bay region due to foreseen heavy rains within the next 24 hours.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 08 April 2020

Most parts of Somalia will remain dry in the next seven days, apart from some areas in Gedo, Bay, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions, in the south where light to moderate rains are expected. Moderate wet conditions are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands within the week. Other areas including Somaliland, Puntland and central regions will remain dry or receive minimal rains during the week. River levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers continued to rise gradually but still remains below normal at this time of the year. The levels may increase further towards the end of the week with no risk of flooding.

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Somali Floods Update - Issued 27 April 2020

The 2020 Gu (April-June) seasonal rains continued to intensify across Somalia during the 4th week of April. Compared to the previous two weeks, there was a significant increase of rainfall in most parts of Somalia as well as the eastern Ethiopian highlands. Many areas observed more than three days of consecutive heavy rains across the country. The good rains received so far have continued to replenish water and pasture resources. An improvement in livestock body conditions and milk production has been reported as well. On the downside, parts of the country experienced flash flood and flooding has begun in the Juba and Shabelle rivers. Following heavy rains, river levels increased considerably along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers leading to flooding along the Juba. Flash floods were also experienced in Bay and Bakool Regions. Shabelle River: Heavy rains within the Shabelle basin both in Ethiopia and inside Somalia have led to a drastic increase in river levels along the Shabelle River. Most of the stations in the basin recorded 50 mm to 100 mm of rainfall in the last three days. In Belet Weyne and surrounding areas, river levels recorded a sharp increase in the last 72 hours, which has seen a rise of 3.50 m to 6.00 m as of today. This is only 0.50 m below the moderate flood risk level. The river level at Bulo Burti is 3.50 m, which is 1.5 m increase in the last 72 hours, and is 2.5 m below the moderate flood risk level; however, this is likely to increase rapidly in the next few days. In Jowhar, there has been a 1.00 m increase in river level in the last 24 hours following heavy rains in the area last night. A similar trend has been observed in Balcad and the lower reaches of the river. The river levels are expected to continue rising along the entire channel of Shabelle as more waters from the Ethiopian highlands are still streaming in. High risk of flooding is therefore foreseen along the Shabelle during this week and through early May. Existence of river breakages (50 points identified and reported by SWALIM in February 2020) is likely to exacerbate the flooding situation unless urgent measures are taken. Juba River: River levels increased sharply last week following heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands and within Somalia. Flash floods were observed in Dollow town leading to destruction of some business premises and houses. Further, riverine flooding has been reported north of Dollow town where the Dawa and Juba rivers converge, leading to inundation of unconfirmed acreage of cropland. Floods were also observed around Luuq town leading to inundation of cropped area. In Gedo region around Bardheere, river levels remain very high and have surpassed the high-risk flood level this morning. Flooding in the area started since 23 April 2020 and continues to date. Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions are experiencing high river levels with flooding being reported in these reaches. River levels are expected to fluctuate in the coming week with a high risk of flooding along the entire Juba river channel. In Bay and Bakool regions: Heavy rains resulted led to flash floods which have affected some IDP settlements within Baidoa town. Bur Hakaba, Baardale, Huddur and Qansadheere districts were the most affected. Moderate risk of flooding remain in this area. Puntland, Somaliland and Central regions: Since the beginning of the rainy season, moderate to heavy rains have been reported in many parts of the northern regions. In Somaliland, more than 10 stations in Woqooyi Galbeed and Togdheer regions recorded heavy rains of more than 50 mm to 100 mm cumulatively. Moderate rains have also been observed in Puntland; however, a few places in Bari and Nuugal regions have only recorded light rains during the month.

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Flood watch bulletin

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 14 April 2020

The last one week saw a significant reduction of rainfall activities in Somalia with light rains being observed in scattered areas across the country as the Gu season continues to spread. The rainfall forecast for the next three days is calling for moderate rains of up to 50mm cumulatively in most parts of Somaliland, Southern regions and the Ethiopian highlands with the intensity expected to increase as the week progresses. The weekly cumulative forecast indicates more than 100mm of rainfall within the Juba and Shabelle river basins both inside Somali and within the Ethiopian Highlands. The same amount of rainfall is foreseen in parts of Awdal, Toghdheer and Woqqoyi Galbeed in Somaliland. On the other hand, light or no rains are foreseen in the central regions of the country. The foreseen heavy rains will lead to an increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia with no risk of flooding along the rivers. Flash floods may occur in built up and low lying areas of Somaliland, Bay and Bakool regions where more rains are expected during the forecast period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 29 April 2020

The Gu rainy season continued to spread in time and space within Somalia leaving trails of devastating flood impacts in some locations. Heavy storms in Qardo, Bari region and Burao in Togdheer region on the night of 27 April 2020 led to severe flash floods leading to massive destruction of properties and loss of lives. In the southern regions, heavy rains within the Juba and Shabelle basins led to river flooding along the Juba River while the levels increased dramatically along the Shabelle. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall in most areas inside Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. Today, 29 April 2020, heavy storms are expected in southern parts of Wooqoyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Nugaal, Bari and Mudug regions in the northern regions. Parts of Bay and Bakool regions in the south are also expected to record good rains within the next 24 hours. Another bout of flash floods is high likely in the northern regions, especially Bari and Nugal regions, within the 24 to 48 hours period. Further, low lying areas of Bay and Bakool will experience the same given the forecast. The levels in Bardheere surpassed the high flood risk level, leading to severe river flooding in the area in the last two days. The flooding is expected to continue during this week. Floods are also reported in the middle and lower reaches of the Juba river. The River levels along the Shabelle River which increased sharply in the last few days are expected to remain so with high likelihood of flooding starting from 30 April 2020.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 17 April 2020

The last two days saw an increase in rainfall activities across Somalia. Most stations within the Juba and Shabelle basins in the south, recording 50 mm to 70 mm cumulatively. Moderate rains were also recorded in Somaliland while Puntland regions saw light rains in the last two days. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall activities in Somaliland, Southern parts of Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. Heavy rains of up to 100 mm are expected in these regions. Bari, Sool, Nugal and Mudug regions are expected to remain dry during the forecast period. The foreseen heavy rains will lead to an increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia with no risk of flooding along the rivers. Flash floods may occur in built up and low lying areas of Somaliland, Middle Juba, Bay and Bakool regions where more rains are expected during the forecast period.

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Saadaasha Roob-di’idda Soomaaliya – 17/4/2020

Toddobaakii la soo dhaafay waxaa la arkayey kororka roob-di’idda guud ahaan Soomaaliya. Meelo badan oo ku yaal dooxooyinka Juba iyo Shabeelle ee Koonfurta, waa la diiwaaniyey 50 mm ilaa 70 mm wadar ahaan. Roobab dhexdhexaad ayaa sidoo kale laga diiwaaniyey gudaha Soomaliland halka ay Puntland ka ahaayeen roobab fudfudud labadii maalin ee u dambeeyey. Saadaasha roob-di’idda toddobaadka soocda waxay sheegaysaa roobabka oo kordhaya gudaha Soomaaliland, qaybaha koonfureed ee Soomaaliya iyo gudaha buuraleyda Itoobiya. Roobab culculus oo gaara ilaa 100 mm ayaa laga filayaa gudaha gobolladaan. Gobollada Bari, Nugaal iyo Mudug waxaa la filayaa inay ahaadaan kuwo engegan inta lagu jiro muddada saadaashan. Roobabka culculus ee la saadaalinayo waxay horseedi doontaa koror ku yimaadaheerka qulqulka webiyada Juba iyo Shabeelle gudaha Soomaaliya oo lahayn halis fataadeed jiidda webiyada. Daadad ka soo rogmada meelaha sarsare oo saameeya meelaha hooseeya ee gobollada Soomaaliland, Jubada Dhexe, Bay iyo Bakool oo ayaa laga filayaa meelaha roobaka culculus ku da’aan inta lagu jiro muddada la saadaalinayo.

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Status of River Breakages Along Juba and Shabelle Rivers - Issued March 2020

The Food and Agriculture Organization’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management (FAO SWALIM) Project, has finalized the analysis and mapping of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers using very high resolution satellite imagery. Breakages identified in the map have been classified into five different categories; Open, Overflow, Potential Overflows, Potential breakages and Closed with sandbags. A legend/Key for further explanation of the different types of breakages is provided here. The heavy rains during the Deyr 2019 rainy season led to increased flow causing overflow and riverbank breakages in sections of the two rivers. Henceforth, there was an increase of the open points from the previous assessment of August 2019. A total of 152 Open points have been identified, 100 on the Shabelle River and 52 on the Juba River which require immediate attention. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have also been identified. The Gu 2020 rainfall outlook is calling for enhanced rains within the Juba and Shabelle Rivers as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Consequently, river levels are expected to increase with a high likelihood of flooding especially where open and potential points have been identified. There is therefore an immediate need to close the open points and reinforce areas where there are weak river embankments. Intervening agencies are advised to take advantage of the current dry period until the rains start and carry out temporary or long term measures to close the river breakages. This will see a reduction of riverine flooding in case of heavy rains and consequently a massive reduction in economic losses to the country. SWALIM is pleased to share with you maps and tables of the status of river breakages along the two rivers. Hardcopies can be obtained from FAO SWALIM offices. It is worth noting that the methodology is biased towards Remote Sensing (RS) interpretation with only limited “ground truthing” due to constraints in accessing the areas. Open breakages and overflows might have been omitted or classified as potential in some cases where satellite images were not available or may not have been very clear due to heavy cloud cover and dense vegetation cover.

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Map

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 24 March 2020

The Gu 2020 rainy season (March/April—June) has kicked off in some parts of the country since 20 March 2020. In Somaliland, Wajaale and Aburin stations recorded a total of 68mm and 40mm respectively with other regions receiving less than 30mm. In Puntland, Buhoodle and Baran stations recorded 30mm and 24mm respectively in the last two days. The last 24 hours also saw moderate rains in parts of the Juba and Shabelle basins in the south where Belet Weyne recorded 42mm and Buaale 13mm. The rains are expected to continue spreading in time and space during the coming weeks with the season expected to record enhanced rains before coming to an end in June 2020. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three days indicates light to moderate rains in many regions in the northern areas and scattered places in the south. Moderate rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highland whose rainfall is largely responsible for increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. The rains will then spread further as the week progresses with more intensity in the Ethiopian highlands and southern parts of Somalia. Most parts of the central areas will remain dry in the coming week. River levels are currently very low along the two rivers. Given the rainfall forecast, the levels will start to increase towards the end of the week with no risk of flooding during the forecast period.

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