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Flood Watch Bulletin 04-05-2016

During the week that ended on 3rd May 2016, moderate to heavy rains were experienced in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Mataban in Hiraan region recorded a total of 115mm in the week while Bur Hakaba in Bay region received a total of 92mm during the same period. Satellite rainfall estimates also indicates moderate to heavy rainfall amounts during the same period within the Juba and Shabelle basins. The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates a possibility of moderate to heavy rains in two river basins both in Somalia and within the Ethiopian highlands. River levels have been increasing since mid April due to heavy rains received within the basins. Currently, the levels are above the normal at this time of the year at all monitoring stations along the two rivers. Given the rainfall forecast and the rising river levels there is a foreseen high risk of flooding in the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River while moderate risk of flooding is foreseen along Juba during the forecast period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 30-05-2016

Light rains are expected in a few places within Somaliland as well as the coastal areas of southern regions. The rest of the country and the upper parts of Juba and Shabelle River basins in Ethiopia will remain dry during the forecast period. The river level in the upper parts of Shabelle at Belet Weyne has slightly decreased from the week-long bankful level, but still remain within the high risk level. Downstream the river levels are expected to continue rising for the next few days, posing a risk to flooding especially in middle and lower reaches with existing open and weak river banks.

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Somalia Flood Watch Bulletin 17-05-2016

During the week that ended on 16th May 2016, there was a significant reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. River levels remain high along the entire channels of the two rivers. The table below shows the total amounts received in some stations during the last week within the two basins.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 10-05-2016

Heavy rains reported in parts of Somalia have led to flash floods and river flooding in the country. In Puntland, Bari region in Bali Dhiddin district , heavy storms led to destruction of property last night. Eyl station along the coast of Nugaal region also recorded high amount of rainfall (75mm) in the last 24 hours. The three days rainfall forecast calls for more rains in northern parts of the country while light rains are expected in the southern parts. There is a high risk of flash floods in the coastal areas of Bari and Nugaal regions The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding is moderate.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 05-05-2016

Wet conditions are expected to persist across Somalia in the next three days. The northern regions of the country are expected to receive moderate to high rains, while in the central and southern regions the forecast points towards light to moderate rains. The upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle rivers are also expected to receive moderate to high rains within the same period. Given the forecast and the rising levels, there remains a high risk of flooding along the Middle and Lower Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding is remains moderate.

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Somalia Flood Watch 31-05-2016

During the week that ended on 30 May 2016, minimal rainfall activities were experienced in Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Most stations recording no rainfall. The table below shows the total amounts received in some stations during the last week within the two basins.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 02-05-2016

Heavy rains within the Juba and Shabelle Basins have led to increased river levels along the two rivers. The forecast for the next three days calls for more rains in the basins. There is a high likelihood of flooding in Gedo, Middle and Lower Juba regions along the Juba River and in Middle and Lower regions of the Shabelle River.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 18-05-2016

Light rains are expected in a few pockets of Bari region, central and northern regions in Somalia as well as the headwaters of the two rivers in Ethiopia in the coming three days. The rest of the country is expected to remain dry within the same period. Today the river level at Belet Weyne, in the upper reaches of Shabelle River inside Somalia is at 8.30 m which is the bankfull level. Riverine areas within Belet Weyne town and the surrounding are currently flooded. This flood wave is expected to be transmitted to the downstream reaches in the next few days. There still remains a moderate risk of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers owing to the high river levels and existing open and weak river banks in the middle and lower reaches.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 11-05-2016

Heavy rains reported in parts of Somalia continue to cause flash floods and river flooding in the country. In Puntland Eyl station along the coast of Nugaal region recorded high amount of rainfall (86mm) in the last 24 hours after which was followed by 75mm the yesterday (10 May 2016). The three days rainfall forecast calls for more rains in northern parts of the country while light rains are expected in the central and southern parts. There is a high risk of flash floods in the coastal areas of Bari and Nugaal regions. The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding has changed from moderate to high with river flooding in Lower Juba.

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Update on the Status of River Breakages Along Juba and Shabelle Rivers as April 2016

The 2016 Gu rainfall season has continued to spread widely in terms of time, space and quantity over the last one month. The Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia have experienced moderate to heavy rains since the beginning of the season. There has also been heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, which contributes about 90% of the river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. These rains have subsequently led to increased river levels along the two rivers, with flooding being reported in a few areas. The Flood Risk and Response Management Information System (FRRMIS) on the SWALIM interactive web page is updated every morning with current River levels. On the FRRMIS site, you can see current levels compared to the long-term mean and also to the levels that indicate flood risk. Using recent satellite imageries and field reports SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages information which had been issued in February 2016. Two open breakages (Bayaxaaw and Bardheere) which were previously marked as potential points have been identified in Middle Shabelle. The breakages are about 10m wide and pause an immediate threat to nearby villages and cropped land. The attached tables provide details of the open and potential river breakages along the two rivers.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 23-05-2016

Light rains are expected to prevail in a few places within Puntland and Somaliland as well as the coastal areas of southern regions and the upper parts of the Juba and Shabelle River basins in Ethiopia. Other parts of the country will remain dry during the forecast period. The river levels in the upper parts of Shabelle River in Belet weyne , Hiraan region have remained at full capacity for the last few days. Riverine areas within Belet Weyne town and the surrounding are currently flooded. This flood wave is expected to be transmitted to the downstream reaches in the next few days. There still remains a moderate risk of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers owing to the high river levels and existing open and weak river banks in the middle and lower reaches.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 12-05-2016

The three days rainfall forecast calls for more rains in northern parts of the country while light rains are expected in the central and southern parts. There is a high risk of flash floods in the coastal areas of Bari and Nugaal regions. The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the two rivers.

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Somali Flood Alert 06-05-2016

Wet conditions persist in many parts of Somalia as a result of heavy rains in the country. The Ethiopian highlands have been receiving heavy rains in the last few weeks. Following these heavy rains, river  levels have increased drastically along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Further more, flash floods have been reported in some areas in Puntland and Somaliland due to heavy rains in those areas. The 3 days rainfall forecast (Map-1) points towards continued heavy rains with an increase towards the end of the week (Map-2). Given the rainfall forecast, observed river levels along the  two rivers are expected to continue rising further, especially in downstream areas. Today’s river level at Belet Weyne along the Shabelle River is 6.60m. These high levels area expected to be transmitted further downstream with a likelihood of flooding. There is therefore a high risk of flooding in the coming few days along the Shabelle River, while a moderate risk of flooding is foreseen along the Juba River. The foreseen heavy rains are also likely to cause flash floods in built up and low lying areas within Somaliland, Puntland (especially in Bari and Nugaal regions) and the central parts of the country.

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Flood Alert

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 03-05-2016

Widespread rains are expected across Somalia in the next three days. The northern regions of the country are expected to receive moderate to high rains, while in the central and southern regions the forecast points towards light to moderate rains. The upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle rivers are also expected to receive moderate to high rains within the same period. The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the Middle and Lower Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding is moderate.

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Somalia Flood Watch Bulletin 24-05-2016

During the week that ended on 23 May 2016, there was a significant reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands with most stations recording little or no rainfall. For the last one week River levels at Belet Weyne remained at bank full resulting to flooding in the town and surrounding areas which has caused displacements and damage of properties. This flood wave is expected to be transmitted downstream with a moderate risk of flooding along the River. River levels along the Juba have been reducing for the last few days. Given the rainfall forecast and the reducing trend there is minimal risk of flooding along the River.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 13-05-2016

Light to moderate rains are expected across Somalia in the next three days. Along the coastal areas of Bari and Nugal regions the forecast calls for moderate to high rains; while in the Ethiopian highlands scattered light to moderate rains will be experienced in the forecast period. There is a high risk of flash floods in the coastal areas of Bari and Nugaal regions. The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the two rivers.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 20-04-2016

The three days rainfall forecast is calling for a reduction of rainfall activities in many areas. Light rains may be experienced in western Somaliland and southern regions The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands are expected to get moderate rains. Dry conditions are expected in the other parts of the country.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 08-04-2016

The wet conditions with moderate to heavy rains are expected to persist in the next three days in most parts of Somaliland and Puntland and the Ethiopian highlands. Other and parts of southern central regions are expected to record light too moderate rains withn the same period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 29-04-2016

The last 24 hours continued to see an increase of rainfall amounts in many parts of the country with some stations recording over 50mm in some parts. The three days forecast is calling for more rains across the country. But with a reduction of rainfall amounts in Puntland . Heavy rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period. There remains a moderate risk of flooding in middle and lower Shabelle in the coming days.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 25-04-2016

The three days rainfall forecast is calling for an increase of rainfall activities in many areas of the country. Heavy rains of between 40mm to 150mm will be experienced in the Ethiopian highlands while most parts of Somalia may get up to 50mm within the three days.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 14-04-2016

Most parts of Somaliland, northern parts Bari region in Puntland as well as the Ethiopian highlands will continue to receive rains in the next three days. Other parts of the northern Somalia (Nuugal and southern Bari) and parts of southern and central regions inside Somalia will experience little or no rains during the forecast period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 30-04-2016

The last 24 hours have seen heavy rains within the Juba and Shabelle basins both in Ethiopia and Somalia. This has led to a drastic increase of river levels along the two rivers. Today the river level at Luuq along Juba is 6.10m which above the high risk of flooding. River flooding have reported in Luuq area and the surrounding. The three days rainfall forecast is calling for more rains in the basins. Given the rainfall forecast and the rising levels there is a high risk of flooding along the Juba River as well as the Middle and Lower reaches of Shabelle River in the coming days.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 04-04-2016

The rainfall forecast for the next three days points towards moderate to heavy rains in the southern, North western and parts of Sanaag regions as well in the Ethiopian highlands. Most of Sool, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions are expected to record little or no rains during the same period.

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Somalia Dekadal Rainfall Update Dekad 11, April 2016

During the second Dekad of April 2016 (11th – 20th), there was an increase of rainfall activities in Somaliland and a few places in the southern regions. Heavy rains also continued to be received in the Ethiopian highlands leading a further increase of river levels in Somalia. Most parts of Puntland and the central regions of the country remained dry during the same period causing more concern in the drought stricken areas of Puntland.

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Dekadal Rainfall Update

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 15-04-2016

The last week has seen moderate to heavy rains in some parts of Somaliland which came as a relief to the area that had been hard hit by a prolonged dry period. Some stations like Boroma, Gebilley and Dilla recorded over 100mm of cumulative rainfall in seven days. In Puntland, only parts of Bari region have recorded rains in the last few days while the central and southern parts of the country received minimal rains over the last one week. Moderate to heavy rains have also been reported in the Ethiopian highlands and this has consequently led to an increase in river levels in the upper reaches of Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. The three days rainfall forecast is calling for moderate rains in Most parts of Somaliland and the southern regions. Wet conditions are expected to persist in the Ethiopian highlands. Dry conditions are expected in Galgadud, Mudug, Nugaal and Bari regions within the same period.

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