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Belet Weyne District Reported Floods observation and Sentinel-2 image analysis (25 May 2016)

This dataset was digitized directly from Sentinel-2 imagery of 25th May 2016 to show the areal extent of Belet Weyne flooding. Sentinel-2 image resolution of 10m was downloaded free of charge from European Space Agency (ESA)

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Middle Shabelle Region Floods Reported observation and Landsat-8 (12 May 2016) image analysis

This dataset was digitized directly from Landsat-8 imagery of 12th May 2016 to show the areal extent of Jowhar flooding. Please note that the flooded area might not be exact due to the cloud cover hindering the interpretation. Landsat-8 image resolution of 15m was downloaded free of charge from USGS Earth Explorer

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Map

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Belet Weyne flood map - June 2016

The town of Belet Weyne and its environs experienced one of the biggest floods in recent history. The floods, which lasted over 10 days were caused by overbank spillage from Shabelle River following heavy rains experienced in the Ethiopian highlands over the past one month. The floods covered about 60% (591 ha) of the entire town, resulting to mass displacement. This map depicts the peak of the flood extent, as observed from 10 meters resolution Sentinel-2 satellite image of 25th May 2016

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SWALIM Update Issue 11

We are pleased to share Issue 11 of our newsletter “SWALIM Update” for the period January 2016 – April 2016.

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Newsletter

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Somali Gu 2016 Rainfall Performance

The Gu 2016 season started off well in advance in some parts of the country during the third dekad of March and continued to spread spatially in the first and second dekads of April. Other parts especially in Puntland and southern regions had a late start of the season which also ended early. The distribution of the rains were normal to below normal with an exception of north western regions which saw above average rains compared to the long termmean for the period under review. Some places that recorded depressed rains include Sanaag, Bari, north of Sool, south of Mudug, Galgaduud, Bakool, Hiraan, Middle Juba, Lower Juba and Lower Shabekke. The poor rains which also had an early cessation raises a concern especially in Puntland where drought conditions have been present for a long time. With no more rainfall expected in the coming months, most of Puntland regions and the coastal areas of Mudug and Galgaduud regions remain under drought conditions. The north west parts of Somaliland recorded above average rains. Other areas that received good rains include south of Togdheer and Sool regions. Some parts of the south and central regions within Bay and Bakool regions also received good rains. The rains were well received by the communities especially in the northern parts which had a prolonged dry period. This came as a relief for many people who experienced drought conditions in parts of the country. The Ethiopian highlands experienced heavy rains that led to increased river flow inside Somalia leading to floods in some sections of Juba and Shabelle Rivers. In general the rains led to improved soil moisture conditions that were favourable for both crops and pasture growth. Enhanced rains also led to replenishment of water reservoirs. However, negative impacts were also felt such as floods that caused destruction of properties, infrastructure and loss of livestock. The floods affected about 100,000 people with 72,000 of them being displaced.

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Rainfall Performance

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 09-05-2016

Heavy rains have been reported in parts Somalia over the last two days. Consequently, river levels have gone up with cases of river flooding in Gedo, Hiraan and Middle Shabelle regions in the south. Flash floods were also reported in parts of Puntland following the heavy rains. The three days rainfall forecast calls for reduced rainfall activities in the country, however, some parts in Lower Juba and northern regions may experience moderate rains. The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding is moderate.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 04-05-2016

Wet conditions are expected to persist across Somalia in the next three days. The northern regions of the country are expected to receive moderate to high rains, while in the central and southern regions the forecast points towards light to moderate rains. The upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle rivers are also expected to receive moderate to high rains within the same period. Given the forecast and the rising levels, there remains a high risk of flooding along the Middle and Lower Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding is remains moderate.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Shabelle River Flood Advisory 27-05-2016

Observed river levels of the Shabelle River in Somalia have remained high for the last few weeks. This has been attributed to heavy rains in the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands during the months of April and May. The River level at Belet Weyne in Hiran is currently at bank full and has remained so for the last one week as seen in Figure 1. This has resulted in over bank spillage leading to riverine floods in Belet Weyne town and the surroundings. There has been a significant reduction of rainfall activities both in Somali and the Ethiopian highlands. The high river levels being observed in Belet Weyne currently are due to the large amount of water coming from the upstream reaches in Ethiopia. Unofficial reports from Ethiopia indicate that there has been flooding in some areas and the flood water is now getting back to the river. In additional to this, there are minimal water abstractions in Ethiopia for irrigation and other purposes following the heavy rains in the highlands since April. It is expected that the flood wave will be transmitted downstream of Belet Weyne in the coming days. Currently the river levels at Bulo Burti are very high and in less than five days this high levels will be reflected in Jowhar. There is therefore high risk of flooding in the coming few days in the Middle and lower reaches of the Shabelle river given the current situation. Areas to watch include Jowhar town and its environs; where the river level is currently high and other riverine towns in the lower Shabelle region. The situation could be further exacerbated by weak river embankments and open river banks. For more information on this and related issues please visit: http://systems.faoso.net/frrims/rivers/floods

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Flood Alert

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 17-05-2016

Light rains are expected in a few pockets of central and northern regions in Somalia in the coming three days. The rest of the country is expected to remain dry within the same period. There still remains a high risk of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers owing to the high river levels and existing open and weak river banks.

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Flood Watch Bulletin 04-05-2016

During the week that ended on 3rd May 2016, moderate to heavy rains were experienced in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Mataban in Hiraan region recorded a total of 115mm in the week while Bur Hakaba in Bay region received a total of 92mm during the same period. Satellite rainfall estimates also indicates moderate to heavy rainfall amounts during the same period within the Juba and Shabelle basins. The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates a possibility of moderate to heavy rains in two river basins both in Somalia and within the Ethiopian highlands. River levels have been increasing since mid April due to heavy rains received within the basins. Currently, the levels are above the normal at this time of the year at all monitoring stations along the two rivers. Given the rainfall forecast and the rising river levels there is a foreseen high risk of flooding in the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River while moderate risk of flooding is foreseen along Juba during the forecast period.

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Flood watch bulletin

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 30-05-2016

Light rains are expected in a few places within Somaliland as well as the coastal areas of southern regions. The rest of the country and the upper parts of Juba and Shabelle River basins in Ethiopia will remain dry during the forecast period. The river level in the upper parts of Shabelle at Belet Weyne has slightly decreased from the week-long bankful level, but still remain within the high risk level. Downstream the river levels are expected to continue rising for the next few days, posing a risk to flooding especially in middle and lower reaches with existing open and weak river banks.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Flood Watch Bulletin 17-05-2016

During the week that ended on 16th May 2016, there was a significant reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. River levels remain high along the entire channels of the two rivers. The table below shows the total amounts received in some stations during the last week within the two basins.

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Flood watch bulletin

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 10-05-2016

Heavy rains reported in parts of Somalia have led to flash floods and river flooding in the country. In Puntland, Bari region in Bali Dhiddin district , heavy storms led to destruction of property last night. Eyl station along the coast of Nugaal region also recorded high amount of rainfall (75mm) in the last 24 hours. The three days rainfall forecast calls for more rains in northern parts of the country while light rains are expected in the southern parts. There is a high risk of flash floods in the coastal areas of Bari and Nugaal regions The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding is moderate.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 05-05-2016

Wet conditions are expected to persist across Somalia in the next three days. The northern regions of the country are expected to receive moderate to high rains, while in the central and southern regions the forecast points towards light to moderate rains. The upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle rivers are also expected to receive moderate to high rains within the same period. Given the forecast and the rising levels, there remains a high risk of flooding along the Middle and Lower Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding is remains moderate.

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Somalia Flood Watch 31-05-2016

During the week that ended on 30 May 2016, minimal rainfall activities were experienced in Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Most stations recording no rainfall. The table below shows the total amounts received in some stations during the last week within the two basins.

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Flood watch bulletin

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 02-05-2016

Heavy rains within the Juba and Shabelle Basins have led to increased river levels along the two rivers. The forecast for the next three days calls for more rains in the basins. There is a high likelihood of flooding in Gedo, Middle and Lower Juba regions along the Juba River and in Middle and Lower regions of the Shabelle River.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 18-05-2016

Light rains are expected in a few pockets of Bari region, central and northern regions in Somalia as well as the headwaters of the two rivers in Ethiopia in the coming three days. The rest of the country is expected to remain dry within the same period. Today the river level at Belet Weyne, in the upper reaches of Shabelle River inside Somalia is at 8.30 m which is the bankfull level. Riverine areas within Belet Weyne town and the surrounding are currently flooded. This flood wave is expected to be transmitted to the downstream reaches in the next few days. There still remains a moderate risk of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers owing to the high river levels and existing open and weak river banks in the middle and lower reaches.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 11-05-2016

Heavy rains reported in parts of Somalia continue to cause flash floods and river flooding in the country. In Puntland Eyl station along the coast of Nugaal region recorded high amount of rainfall (86mm) in the last 24 hours after which was followed by 75mm the yesterday (10 May 2016). The three days rainfall forecast calls for more rains in northern parts of the country while light rains are expected in the central and southern parts. There is a high risk of flash floods in the coastal areas of Bari and Nugaal regions. The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding has changed from moderate to high with river flooding in Lower Juba.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Update on the Status of River Breakages Along Juba and Shabelle Rivers as April 2016

The 2016 Gu rainfall season has continued to spread widely in terms of time, space and quantity over the last one month. The Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia have experienced moderate to heavy rains since the beginning of the season. There has also been heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, which contributes about 90% of the river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. These rains have subsequently led to increased river levels along the two rivers, with flooding being reported in a few areas. The Flood Risk and Response Management Information System (FRRMIS) on the SWALIM interactive web page is updated every morning with current River levels. On the FRRMIS site, you can see current levels compared to the long-term mean and also to the levels that indicate flood risk. Using recent satellite imageries and field reports SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages information which had been issued in February 2016. Two open breakages (Bayaxaaw and Bardheere) which were previously marked as potential points have been identified in Middle Shabelle. The breakages are about 10m wide and pause an immediate threat to nearby villages and cropped land. The attached tables provide details of the open and potential river breakages along the two rivers.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 23-05-2016

Light rains are expected to prevail in a few places within Puntland and Somaliland as well as the coastal areas of southern regions and the upper parts of the Juba and Shabelle River basins in Ethiopia. Other parts of the country will remain dry during the forecast period. The river levels in the upper parts of Shabelle River in Belet weyne , Hiraan region have remained at full capacity for the last few days. Riverine areas within Belet Weyne town and the surrounding are currently flooded. This flood wave is expected to be transmitted to the downstream reaches in the next few days. There still remains a moderate risk of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers owing to the high river levels and existing open and weak river banks in the middle and lower reaches.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 12-05-2016

The three days rainfall forecast calls for more rains in northern parts of the country while light rains are expected in the central and southern parts. There is a high risk of flash floods in the coastal areas of Bari and Nugaal regions. The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the two rivers.

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Somali Flood Alert 06-05-2016

Wet conditions persist in many parts of Somalia as a result of heavy rains in the country. The Ethiopian highlands have been receiving heavy rains in the last few weeks. Following these heavy rains, river  levels have increased drastically along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Further more, flash floods have been reported in some areas in Puntland and Somaliland due to heavy rains in those areas. The 3 days rainfall forecast (Map-1) points towards continued heavy rains with an increase towards the end of the week (Map-2). Given the rainfall forecast, observed river levels along the  two rivers are expected to continue rising further, especially in downstream areas. Today’s river level at Belet Weyne along the Shabelle River is 6.60m. These high levels area expected to be transmitted further downstream with a likelihood of flooding. There is therefore a high risk of flooding in the coming few days along the Shabelle River, while a moderate risk of flooding is foreseen along the Juba River. The foreseen heavy rains are also likely to cause flash floods in built up and low lying areas within Somaliland, Puntland (especially in Bari and Nugaal regions) and the central parts of the country.

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Flood Alert

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 03-05-2016

Widespread rains are expected across Somalia in the next three days. The northern regions of the country are expected to receive moderate to high rains, while in the central and southern regions the forecast points towards light to moderate rains. The upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle rivers are also expected to receive moderate to high rains within the same period. The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the Middle and Lower Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding is moderate.

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Somalia Flood Watch Bulletin 24-05-2016

During the week that ended on 23 May 2016, there was a significant reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands with most stations recording little or no rainfall. For the last one week River levels at Belet Weyne remained at bank full resulting to flooding in the town and surrounding areas which has caused displacements and damage of properties. This flood wave is expected to be transmitted downstream with a moderate risk of flooding along the River. River levels along the Juba have been reducing for the last few days. Given the rainfall forecast and the reducing trend there is minimal risk of flooding along the River.

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Flood watch bulletin

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 13-05-2016

Light to moderate rains are expected across Somalia in the next three days. Along the coastal areas of Bari and Nugal regions the forecast calls for moderate to high rains; while in the Ethiopian highlands scattered light to moderate rains will be experienced in the forecast period. There is a high risk of flash floods in the coastal areas of Bari and Nugaal regions. The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the two rivers.

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