Library Advanced Search

Latest Documents and Publications listed. Use search terms in the box below to find what you need

Status of River Breakages Along Juba River as at March 2018

As part of flood preparedness and contingency planning, the FAO Somalia Water and Land Information Management project (SWALIM) has finalized mapping of river breakages along the Juba River using Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite images. The middle and lower parts of the river are most vulnerable to flooding. Three types of breakages have been identified namely; open (37), potential (191) and closed with sand bags (21). The open breakages are those that were still open during the period of investigation. The potential breakages represent points that have very weak river embankment or have experienced several breakages in the recent past. The closed with sand bags breakages are those that were previously open but efforts have been made to close them although they are still at risk. The open river breakages pose an immediate danger and high risk of flooding.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Map

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Somalia Rainfall Forecast 13-03-2018

While the Gu season is yet to start in Somalia, light to moderate rains were reported in parts of Somaliland since the last week of February and first week of March. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands also recorded moderate rains during the last two weeks which led to slight increase of river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. Light rains are foreseen in a few pockets of Bay and Bakool regions as well as western parts of Somaliland and the Ethiopian highlands in the coming three days (Map 1). The rains are then expected to intensify in space and quantity towards the end of the week (Map 2). Given the rainfall forecast, the river levels are expected to rise with no risk of flooding. Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between forecast and actual amounts of rainfall received.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Rainfall Forecast

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Somalia Rainfall Forecast 28-03-2018

The last few days saw light rains in some parts of northern and southern regions in the country. The three days rainfall forecast is pointing towards minimal rains with light showers expected in a few pockets of Sool, Gedo, Middle Juba and the southern coastal areas. The seven days rainfall forecast indicates increased rains both in the Ethiopian highland and southern regions of the country as the week progresses. Given the rainfall forecast, the river levels are expected to continue rising gradually in the coming week with no risk of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Rainfall Forecast

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Temporal Analysis of Shabelle River Water-levels as Seen from Very High-resolution Satellite Images

The Shabelle River which is one of the two perennial rivers in Somalia has had some sections of the channel getting dry for the third time in three years. The first being February and March 2016, then February and March 2017 and finally some sections dried early December 2017 to Mid-March 2018. The Gu rains are expected to kick off in late March and early April within the basin and this will see a rise in river levels. While there are many reasons behind the drying river bed, the main driver to this could be attributed to consecutive failed rainy seasons both in the Ethiopian Highlands and inside Somalia. Rainfall analysis indicates depressed rains during the Deyr seasons of 2015, 2016 and 2017. The poor rains, and increased agricultural water use led to significant reduction of river flow. Massive sedimentation on the river bed has also resulted in decreased water quantity and quality along Shabelle River. Some reports attribute the flow reduction to riverine activities in Ethiopia where the river originates. SWALIM has analysed the temporal river level status using observed river level data and very high-resolution satellite images taken on different dates in selected towns along the Shabelle River. The analysis of multi-temporal images performed by visual estimation of the water levels covers the period from January 2017 to January 2018. The most suitable cloud free images used are panchromatic black and white acquired by the World View 1 satellite. The readability of panchromatic images is more difficult, but generally water is displayed in a dark grey colour, while bare soil is represented by a light grey colour. In addition SWALIM analyzed the vegetation conditions using the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) for December 2001 and December 2017. The selection of these two periods was informed by observation of similar rainfall/vegetation trends in the previous months. This analysis shows a great increase of active irrigated crops upstream (Belet Weyne) in 2017, a slight increase in Bulo Burti and clear decrease in Jowhar (downstream), which could be explained with a progressive increase of water abstraction upstream, affecting the Shabelle river level downstream.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Brochure

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Somalia GU 2018 Rainfall Outlook

The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) has confirmed a reduction of the chances of experiencing a La Nina event during the March to May rainy season. During the recent GHACOF, the March to May 2018 rainfall forecast for the region was released. According to the forecast, Gu 2018 season in Somalia is expected to be normal (40% probability of normal rains) with a tendency of 35 % probability of below normal rains in most parts of the country. This also includes part of the Ethiopian highlands which contribute significantly to both Juba and Shabelle river flow inside Somalia and all inland parts of the country. Further, Awdal , northern parts of Sanaag and Bari regions in the north as well as the southern coastal regions of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle are expected to experience normal rains (40% probability of normal rains) with a tendency of 35% above normal rains.. The expected depressed rains in many parts of the country will only exacerbate the existing drought conditions. Togdheer, Sool , Nugal and Mudug regions will be worst affected owing to the prevailing drought conditions. Gedo, Bakool, Hiraan and parts of Bay will also be affected adversely by the below normal rains. This outlook is a consensus forecast designed for a regional audience that addresses the rainfall totals summed over the three-month period from March to May 2018. However, SWALIM and other technical partners will keep updating this forecast  for shorter lead time periods and will share with you through the regular bulletins throughout the rainfall season. For more information, please find attached the Somalia Gu 2018 rainfall outlook bulletin.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Rainfall Outlook

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Status of River Breakages Along Shabelle River as at August 2018

Recurrent flooding along the Shabelle River in Southern Somalia has been one of the key challenges for agencies involved in community development in the area. The Shabelle River is worst affected owing to the topography of the area, uncontrolled irrigation activities and poor river basin management following the collapse of pre-war flood control infrastructure. The Gu 2018 rainy season which was characterised by heavy rains inside Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands led to a significant increase of river levels subsequently leading to river flooding that caused agricultural and economic damage in the Shabelle river basin. SWALIM, has been involved in analysing and mapping the river breakages along the Shabelle River using very high resolution (sub meter) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) derived from earlier acquired aerial photographs having 3 meter resolution. Four types of breakages have been identified along Shabelle River namely; Open, Overflow, Potential and Closed. The open breakages are those that were still open during the month of July 2018. The Overflow, indicates points where there has been recent river spillage causing extensive flooding. The potential breakages represent points that have very weak river embankments or have experienced several breakages in the recent past. The closed breakages are those that were previously open but efforts have been made to close them either with sand bags or heavy machinery. The attached table provides locations of both Open and Overflow points along the Shabelle River which require immediate attention. A total of 50 Open points have been identified which is 100% increase from the previous assessment carried out in March 2018 (Refer to the attached table for estimated width of the open breakages). The sharp increase is due to the heavy rains of Gu 2018 rainy season that led to river breakages. 126 Overflow (Overbank river spillage) points have also been identified. The estimated cumulative length of the Overflow sections along the river bank is approximately 82.6 km whose calculation is derived from visible spillages and fresh sand deposits during the flooding period. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have also been identified. With the Deyr rains expected in October and November 2018, river levels will increase with a likelihood of flooding especially where open and overflow points have been identified. There is therefore an immediate need to close the open points and reinforce areas where there are weak river embankments. Maps of the status of river breakages, with detailed information, have been produced at large scale and hard copies can be obtained from SWALIM offices or by email request through swalim@fao.org It is worth noting that the methodology is biased towards Remote Sensing (RS) interpretation with only limited “ground truthing” due to access constraints. Open breakages and overflows might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images were not available or may not have been very clear due to heavy cloud cover.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Map

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Somalia Rainfall Forecast 13-11-2017

The last 10 days have seen extremely heavy rains in some parts of southern and central regions of Somalia causing flooding and displacements in a few places. Bay region saw the heaviest amounts of rainfall with some station surpassing the annual average rains in a few days. Rainfall activities are expected to decrease in the coming week given the 3 days and one week rainfall forecasts. There remains a moderate to high risk of flooding in the middle and lower reaches of both Juba and Shabelle rivers where the river levels are currently very high.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Rainfall Forecast

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Somalia Flood Watch Bulletin 16-11-2017

During the week ending on 13 November 2017, the Juba and Shabelle river basins experienced heavy rains both inside Somalia and within the Ethiopian highlands.  In Bay region, Qansax Dheere and Dinsor stations recorded a total of 426mm and 376mm respectively while Baidoa town received 125mm in the last 10 days. The heavy rains consequently led to increased river levels causing riverine flooding in sections of the rivers and flash floods elsewhere. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands continued to receive good rains during the same period. Map - 1 shows the total satellite Rainfall Estimates (RFE) which also indicates heavy amounts of rainfall in the basins. The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates a significant reduction of rainfall amounts both in the Ethiopian highlands and inside Somalia. Following the heavy rains seen in the last week, the levels along the two rivers rose significantly and are currently above normal at this time of the year. However, this is expected to stabilize towards the end of the week given the rainfall forecast. There remains a high risk of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Juba and Shabelle Rivers.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Flood watch bulletin

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Somalia Rainfall Forecast 01-11-2017

Light rains continued to be observed in a few places across the country within the last few days. The cumulated rainfall forecast for the coming three days shows an expected increase of rainfall activities especially in Mudug, Galgadud, Hiraan, Bay and Bakool regions of Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands. The intensity of the rains is expected to spread further in space and quantity as the week progresses given the 7 days rainfall forecast. Consequently, river levels are expected to rise further with a moderate risk of flooding in middle and lower reaches of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers towards the end of the week. Flash floods may also occur in areas where the forecast indicates high rainfall. Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between forecast and actual amounts of rainfall received. The forecast, observed river levels and rainfall amounts are updated on a daily basis and can be found on this link: http://systems.faoso.net/frrims/

+ More details

Publication Type:

Rainfall Forecast

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Somalia Rainfall Forecast 02-11-2017

The last 24 hours have seen moderate to heavy rains in many parts of the central and southern regions. Today morning, Baidoa and Bulo Burti stations recorded the highest amounts of 124mm and 119mm respectively. Other stations that recorded heavy rains include Bardheere (65mm), Wanle Weyne (52mm), and Mataban (40mm) among others. Heavy rains in Baidoa town and the surroundings led to flash floods and destruction of property. The heavy rains are expected to continue in the next seven days. River levels are expected to continue rising with a moderate to high risk of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Flash floods may also occur in areas where the forecast indicates high rainfall.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Rainfall Forecast

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Somalia Rainfall Forecast 06-11-2017

The last few days continued to record good rains in many parts of the southern and central regions of Somalia while the northern regions remained relatively dry. The good rains are expected to continue in the next seven days. With a reduction of intensity and spatial distribution towards the end of the week. River levels are expected to continue rising with a moderate to high risk of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Flash floods may also occur in areas where the forecast indicates high rainfall.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Rainfall Forecast

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Somalia Rainfall Forecast 25-10-2017

The three days cumulated rainfall forecast is pointing towards light rains in the southern regions bordering Kenya and Scattered places in Somaliland. Light rains are also expected in parts of Bari region of in the north within the three days. The one week forecast is calling for increased rains in Somaliland and the upper parts of the Juba and Shabelle basins within the Ethiopian highlands. River levels in the middle reach of Shabelle are currently high with a moderate risk of flooding in Jowhar and the environs given the rainfall forecast.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Rainfall Forecast

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Somalia Rainfall Forecast 30-10-2017

Light to moderate rains continued in some places across the country with the southern regions recording relatively good rains in many places. Heavy rains are foreseen in the coming week in South and central regions of Somalia. The Ethiopian highlands are also expected to get heavy rains within the forecast week. Given the rainfall forecast, the river levels are expected to rise and causing moderate to high risk of flooding in Middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River towards the end of the week.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Rainfall Forecast

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Somalia Rainfall Forecast 11-10-2017

The three days cumulated rainfall forecast is pointing towards light to moderate rains in central and southern regions of the country and this is expected to increase in quantity and space as the week progresses, given the one week forecast. Light rains are also expected in the upper parts of Ethiopian highlands whose rainfall contribute significantly to the river flow in Somalia. River levels in the middle reach of Shabelle are currently high with a high risk of flooding in Jowhar and the environs.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Rainfall Forecast

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Somalia Rainfall Forecast 18-10-2017

The three day cumulated rainfall forecast is pointing towards light to moderate rains in scattered areas of the country and this is expected to increase in quantity and space as the week progresses, given the one week forecast. Light rains are also expected in the upper parts of Ethiopian highlands whose rainfall contribute significantly to the river flow in Somalia. River levels in the middle reach of Shabelle are currently high with a high risk of flooding in Jowhar and its environs.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Rainfall Forecast

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Somalia Rainfall Forecast 21-09-2017

The three day cumulated rainfall forecast (Map 1) is pointing towards light to moderate rains in scattered areas of the country and this is expected to increase in quantity and space as the week progresses, given the one week forecast (Map 2). Light rains are also expected in the upper parts of Ethiopian highlands whose rainfall contribute significantly to the river flow in Somalia. River levels in the middle reach of Shabelle are currently high with a high risk of flooding in Jowhar and its environs.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Rainfall Forecast

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Deyr 2017 Somalia Rainfall Outlook Bulletin - Issued: 29 August 2017

Normal to below normal rains expected in most parts of Somalia during the Deyr 2017 season. The Deyr rains are usually shorter and less in quantity than the Gu rains. However, they are beneficial in supporting agricultural activities and boosting water availability for different uses. Generally the season starts in late September and ends in November. Nevertheless, this varies from place to place across the country with the northern parts receiving the rains much earlier than the southern parts. The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) has confirmed a drastic reduction of the chances of experiencing an El Nino event during the September to December rainy season. The rainfall forecast indicates that the Deyr 2017 season in Somalia is expected to be normal (40% probability of normal rains) with a tendency of 35 % probability of below normal rains in most parts of the country. This also includes part of the Ethiopian highlands which contribute significantly to both Juba and Shabelle river flow inside Somalia. Further, the southern coastal regions of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle are expected to experience normal rains (40% probability of normal rains) with a tendency of 35% above normal rains. This forecast is a consensus forecast designed for a regional audience that addresses the rainfall totals summed over the three-month period from October to December 2017. However, SWALIM and other technical partners will keep updating this forecast  for shorter lead time periods and will share with you through the regular bulletins throughout the rainfall season. Given the existing conditions and the rainfall forecast, problems related to water scarcity are likely to persist especially in the northern parts of the country where the previous three rainy seasons were below normal. There is also potential for human-livestock conflicts over limited water resources in these areas. Close monitoring of the situation and contingency measures are necessary in order to adequately cope with the situation. However, flash floods cannot be ruled out as well as river line flooding due to weak river embankments and artificial river bank breakages for irrigation purposes. Increased water supply is expected in areas where normal rains will be experienced. In such cases, communities should take advantage of the rains to harvest rain-water for future use, using simple technologies. On the other hand, in case of depressed rains replenishing of the surface water points may be minimal and therefore communities should use the available resources sparingly.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Rainfall Outlook

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

The SWALIM Update Issue 13

Welcome to yet another edition of the SWALIM Update, in this edition we cover; SWALIM Runs Webinar on Land and Water Data Collection Using Low Cost Smartphones in Somalia, SWALIM Maps Prosopis invaded areas in Somaliland, Impacts of river breakages monitoring on communities along Shabelle River, SWALIM Supports the Drought Operation & Coordination Centre (DOCC) in Mogadishu, Monitoring of Charcoal Production in South Central Somalia and the Use of Live Map for Water Sources Information Access in Drought Response.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Newsletter

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Gu 2017 Rainfall Performance Bulletin

Somalia is in the second year of a severe drought the kind that is increasingly likely as the climate warms. Somali communities were looking forward to a relief from the Gu 2017 rainfall season but the devastating drought conditions meant that the country experienced yet another below-average season affecting the recovery of the key livelihood sectors; agricultural and livestock. So far, drought conditions continues to affect Somalia; a situation that may persist until the next rainy season in October. The Gu rainy season was generally poor in most parts of the country except some places in Puntland and Somaliland that saw good rains during the month of May. The southern regions of Middle Juba, Lower Juba and southern Bay also recorded good rains during the months of May and June. Regions that recorded very poor rains include Mududg, Galgaduud, Hiraan, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Bakool, Gedo and southern parts of Bay (Map 1). The Gu rains were sporadic and scattered. In March, a few pockets of Somaliland recorded good rains followed by a long dry period until end of April when the rains started in most parts albeit very late. The rains then spread in space, time and quantity in May. While many parts continued to receive rains until the last week of May, there was an early cessation of the rains in many parts of south and central regions except South of Bay and Middle and Lower Juba regions that continued to receive rains in June. Even with the rains, most parts of the country remain under drought conditions with the impacts being felt across the country. More rains are required to end the ongoing drought in the country and the drought situation is expected to continue until the coming Deyr season in October. It is important to note that only 20% to 40% of the ground water sources have been sufficiently recharged throughout the country. The rest remain water stressed. The rains, though poorly distributed, eased stress levels for the livestock sector due to regrowth of pasture, which provided grazing lands. Areas with below normal rains also saw regrowth of pasture, but may not last until the next season expected in October. If El Niño predictions for late 2017 prove correct, Deyr rainfall in Somalia could be substantial. Most climate models gives the El Niño event a 45 percent chance of returning in 2017. El Niño events tends to cause enhanced rainfall events in Somalia, generally cool temperatures and lots of run-off, which would be good for both ground and surface water recharge in the country.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Rainfall Performance

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Somalia Rainfall Forecast 09-06-2017

There has been a significant reduction of rainfall activities across Somalia over the last one week marking a possible end of the Gu rainy season in many parts of the country. Little or no rains are foreseen in the country in the next one week. Following the reduction of rainfall activities within the Juba and Shabelle River basins both in Ethiopia and Somalia, river levels have been decreasing gradually and are expected to stabilize in the coming week. There is no foreseen risk of flooding along the two rivers.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Rainfall Forecast

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Somalia Rainfall Forecast 17-05-2017

The northern parts of he country and coastal areas in the south will continue to receive rains in the next three days. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains in the basins both in the Ethiopian highlands and inside Somalia. Many areas in Puntland and Somaliland will also continue to receive rains during this period

+ More details

Publication Type:

Rainfall Forecast

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Somalia Rainfall Update - March to 04 May 2017

The Gu rainy season kicked off in the last week of March in some areas of Somaliland including southern parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed and Togdheer regions. The March rains were poorly distributed in terms of space and time, but provided an immediate relief to water stressed areas. The month of April saw a reduction of rainfall activities with most stations recording below normal rains for the month. There was a relief in the last week of April when heavy rains were observed in many areas. A few stations continued to receive rains in the beginning of May especially in Togdheer region. In general, despite the good short lived rains, the amounts so far received in Somaliland are below average and not adequate to support the current water stress in the area. More rains with good distribution are required to end water scarcity. The Forecast for the coming two weeks calls for continued rains in the area especially in Woqooyi Galbeed and Togdheer regions. River levels along the two rivers inside Somalia have subsequently been rising since the last two weeks with the rising trend set to continue in the coming weeks.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Rainfall Performance

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Somalia Flood Watch Bulletin 19-05-2017

The northern parts of he country and coastal areas in the south will continue to receive light rains in the next three days. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is pointing towards heavy rains in Nugaal, South of Sool and north of Mudug regions. Other regions in the north will receive light to moderate rains. The upper parts of Ethiopian highlands and southern coastal areas of Somalia are expected to receive moderate rains. Little or no rains are expected in central and inland southern regions of the country during the forecast period.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Rainfall Forecast

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Somalia Rainfall Forecast 09-05-2017

Light to moderate rains continued to be received in a few places across the country in the last two days. The rains are expected to continue in most parts of the country in the next seven days. The rainfall forecast for the coming week (Map 2), indicates moderate to heavy rains in Somaliland and Puntland. Light to moderate rains are foreseen in the southern parts while central regions are expected to remain dry during the same period. The Ethiopian highlands are also expected to continue receiving rains during the same period. This is will turn lead to a further increase in river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Riverine flooding has been reported in Middle reaches of the Shabelle River due to existing open river banks and weak river embankments. There remains a moderate risk of flooding in middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. No risk of flooding is foreseen along the Juba. Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between forecast and actual amounts of rainfall received.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Somalia Rainfall Forecast 23-05-2017

Most regions of Somalia will remain dry for the next three days, apart from few areas in Somaliland and Puntland where light showers are expected in the same period. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is pointing towards light to moderate rains in Puntland and parts of Somaliland. Light rains are also expected in a few areas in the Central and coastal areas of the South. The upper parts of Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive moderate rains. Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between forecast and actual amounts of rainfall received.

+ More details

Publication Type:

Rainfall Outlook

Publication Date:

Author:

Corporate Author:

Pages

RSS feed [compliant with the Agris AP] | Agris AP XML