Equal chances of average, enhanced and depressed rains expected during the Gu 2021 season. According to the March to May 2021 seasonal forecast issued by IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC) during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF57), there are equal chances of receiving either above average, average or below average rainfall amounts in most parts of Somalia. The three-month outlook favours a similar situation for the eastern Ethiopian highlands which are responsible for most of the flow in the Juba and Shabelle rivers in Somalia. A few pockets in Puntland within Bari and Sanaag regions will receive enhanced rains during the season. Warmer than usual season is expected in the northern areas while relatively cooler conditions are likely to occur in the southern parts of Somalia. In contrast, forecast from FEWS NET’s science partners (NOAA/CPC, NASA/GFSC and CHC) indicates: (1) cumulative rainfall during the March-June 2021 long rains/Gu season in Somalia is most likely to be below-average in Somalia, (2) Gu season rainfall onset is likely to be poor or delayed, and (3) there is an increased likelihood that the rainfall amounts will be widely below average in May, which may signal an earlier-than-normal end of the rainfall season. Given the above seasonal rainfall forecast, all sectors should be prepared for both best and worst case scenarios. However, a pessimistic forecast should be considered for humanitarian response planning during Gu 2021. SWALIM and partners will closely monitor the situation and provide shorter timescale forecasts throughout the season.  Sunny and dry weather conditions characterized by higher than average daytime temperatures prevailed over most parts of the country since December 2020. The unusually dry period is as a result of the poor Deyr 2020 rainfall season in many parts of the country. The areas in northern and central Somalia worst affected by poor rainfall during the 2020 Deyr (October-December) season are currently experiencing mild to moderate drought conditions, leading to water shortages and high water prices. The local authorities in these areas have initiated water tracking activities with Sanaag, Bari, Nuugal and Mudug areas being worst affected by the water shortage. The Juba and Shabelle river levels are very low at this time of the year. Parts of the middle and lower reaches of the Shabelle River are reportedly dry leaving insufficient flow to support irrigation along the river. Whether this drought condition deteriorates to a full-fledged drought or improves will depend on the timeliness, amount and distribution of the forthcoming Gu season rainfall. A more detailed downscaled outlook will be released in the coming days by national inter-ministerial meteorological working group (IMMWG) of Somalia. The downscaled outlook is expected to cover sectorial impacts and advisories for the coming season.

A recent flood analysis by SWALIM indicates that there has been an increase in flood frequency and intensity in the last 10 years along the riverine areas of Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia. Recognizing the recurrent flooding along the Shabelle River in the last few years, SWALIM undertook a field survey in Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye districts. The objective of the survey was to map existing open and weak river embankments in the three districts. We are pleased to share with you the status and impacts of open river points along the Shabelle River in Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye Districts bulletin and related annexes.

Tropical Storm GATI weakened leaving a trail of destruction in parts of Bari and Sanaag regions The tropical storm GATI has weakened further and is moving westwards with a speed of 7KPH. It is expected to dissipate in the next 12 hours. The storm left behind a significant physical and economic damage especially in Bari region. More than 700 houses were destroyed, several boats and fishing gears damaged and loss of a large number of livestock. This has led to loss of livelihood for most families and may take time and huge financial input to replace the loss. There was a reduction of rainfall amounts and wind speeds in the last 24 hours in many areas along the storm path. This trend is expected to continue as the storm gets weaker and the situation will stabilize thereafter. The sea conditions are still rough over the coastal areas of Puntland and Somaliland and fishermen are advised not to venture into fishing operations for today. The storm impacts will continue to be experienced today in Sanaag and Woqooyi Galbeed coastal areas but with lesser magnitude compared to what was experienced Bari in the last two days. The rainfall forecast for Somaliland and Puntland is calling for moderate rains in the next couple of days and a reduction towards the end of the week. The Ethiopian highland and southern parts of the country are also expected to experience moderate to heavy rains in the course of the week. Given the three days rainfall forecast, flash floods may occur in Toghdheer, Sool, Galgaduud and Mudug regions within the areas neighboring Ethiopia.

Tropical Storm GATI dissipated leaving a trail of destruction in parts of Bari and Sanaag regions The tropical storm GATI that developed on 22 November and intensified in the following day on 23 November 2020 lost its intensity and dissipated in the last 12 hours. However, light to moderate rains associated with the storm passage will continue to be felt until end of day tomorrow 26 November 2020. Today, a few places in Somaliland recorded moderate rains while others continue to receive light showers. The impacts of the storm also continue to be felt by communities living along its path. This may last for a long time as most livelihoods were disrupted. The sea conditions are still rough over the coastal areas of Wooqoyi Galbeed and Awdal regions of Somaliland and fishermen in these areas are advised not to venture into fishing operations for today. Sea water in Bari and Sanaag coastal areas started to stabilize and will be back to normal by tomorrow. Fishermen in these areas are advised to take caution as well. The rainfall forecast for Awdal and Wooqoyi Galbeed regions in Somaliland is calling for moderate rains in the next three days including today. No rains are expected in Puntland safe for a few pockets in the coastal areas that may record light rains during the same period. The Ethiopian highland and southern parts of the country are also expected to experience moderate to heavy rains in the course of the week. Given the three days rainfall forecast and the reduction of rainfall activities in the last 24 hours there is a moderate to low risk of flash floods in the southern parts of Togdheer region. No risk of flooding is foreseen Puntland.

The last few days saw increased rainfall amounts in parts of Somaliland and Puntland which were associated with the passage of Tropical Storm GATI. Some stations like Bossaso recorded 128 mm surpassing its annual average rainfall (50mm) in just a single day on 23 November 2020. Caalulla which had not received any rains in the year since March also saw significant rains of 76 mm on the same day. Other stations within the coastal areas of Bari, Sanaag, Woqooyi Galbeed and Adwal regions also recorded moderate to heavy rains. The storm which was characterized by strong winds and heavy rains led to loss of human lives, livestock death and destruction of properties. On the other hand, the unusual heavy rains in the area also led to immediate and short term recharge of subsurface water sources and pasture growth especially in Somaliland which has had a prolonged dry period since September 2020. However, these rains are not sufficient to cater the water deficit in the area. The three and seven days cumulated rainfall forecast (Map 1 &2) is pointing towards light rains in scattered areas in southern regions and moderate rains within in Lower Juba. Light rains are foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands during the forecast week. Hot and dry conditions will persist in Somaliland and Puntland with the rainy season coming to an end. River levels along the Juba and Shabelle basins remain within the normal ranges with no risk of flooding given the rainfall forecast. There remains a great concern in Somaliland and a few other places in the country due to insufficient rains during the Deyr season. With no more rains expected until the next rainy season in April 2021, the condition could deteriorate further towards a drought situation. This is confirmed further by the current climate models confirming a higher certainty of La Niña conditions persisting through March 2021. SWALIM and other technical partners are on the lookout of such developments.

There has been a significant decline of rainfall amounts across Somalia over the last week. In the north western regions of Awdal, Wooqoyi Galbeed and Toghdheer, a prolonged dry period has been observed since the last week of September 2020. Most stations in these regions recorded little or no rainfall during the month of October 2020. Similarly, parts of Puntland have not received any rains since the first week of October. There also remains a significant rainfall deficit in most parts of the southern regions and especially the Jubas and Lower Shabelle. The last week saw a reduction of river levels along the Shabelle River. Currently, levels are within normal in Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti districts while the mid and lower reaches are still at high levels. In Agfooye, the levels are at full capacity and most parts of the riverine areas remain inundated with massive displacement being reported in the area. River levels along the Juba increased sharply in the last one week reaching alarming levels in Bardheere. This was due to heavy rains in the upper reaches of the Ethiopian side which also led to river flooding in Dollow. The last three days have however seen a reduction of the levels along the channel. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week suggests a significant reduction of rainfall amounts across the country with light rains along the southern coastal areas. Little or no rainfall is foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands. This will subsequently lead to a decrease in river levels especially along the Shabelle river. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, flooding is likely to persist in Lower Shabelle riverine areas. There is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba River. There is however a great concern of moisture deficits across the country especially in the rain fed agricultural areas of the southern regions. Drought conditions are foreseen if the trend continues.

There has been a significant decline of rainfall amounts across Somalia over the last week. In the north western regions of Awdal, Wooqoyi Galbeed and Toghdheer, a prolonged dry period has been observed since the last week of September 2020. Most stations in these regions recorded little or no rainfall during the month of October 2020. Similarly, parts of Puntland have not received any rains since the first week of October. There also remains a significant rainfall deficit in most parts of the southern regions and especially the Jubas and Lower Shabelle. The last week saw a reduction of river levels along the Shabelle River. Currently, levels are within normal in Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti districts while the mid and lower reaches are still at high levels. In Agfooye, the levels are at full capacity and most parts of the riverine areas remain inundated with massive displacement being reported in the area. River levels along the Juba increased sharply in the last one week reaching alarming levels in Bardheere. This was due to heavy rains in the upper reaches of the Ethiopian side which also led to river flooding in Dollow. The last three days have however seen a reduction of the levels along the channel. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week suggests a significant reduction of rainfall amounts across the country with light rains along the southern coastal areas. Little or no rainfall is foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands. This will subsequently lead to a decrease in river levels especially along the Shabelle river. Given the rainfall forecast, No risk of flooding is foreseen along the Juba and Shabelle rivers. There is however a great concern of moisture deficits across the country especially in the rain fed agricultural areas of the southern regions. Drought conditions are foreseen if the trend continues.

Moderate to heavy rains are foreseen in parts of Puntland and central regions within this week. In particular, Hiraan, Bakool, Galgaduud, Mudug, Nugaal and southern parts of Sool region will receive significant rainfall amounts during the forecast period. The Ethiopian highland will also receive moderate to heavy rains during the same period. Heavy storms are expected between 03 and 05 October in Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud and Hiraan regions. This is likely to lead to flash floods the areas. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle while there is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba River. There is a also a high risk of flash floods in the built up low lying areas of central regions, Bakool, Nugaal and Sool.

The Deyr 2020 rainy season (Sept/Oct—Dec) continued to spread in the north eastern parts of Somalia and a few places in the south during the last two weeks. A dry period was observed in Somaliland which has not recorded any rains since the beginning of the month. Low to moderate rains were observed in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period. There was a fluctuation of river along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Currently, levels are significantly above normal along the Shabelle. Today’s River level at Belet Weyne is 7.58m which has surpassed the high risk level of flooding. Similarly, the levels are high in the mid and lower reaches of the river. Todays river level at Jowhar is 5. 25m which is almost at bank-ful. In Agfooye, the levels are at full capacity and most parts of the riverine areas remain inundated. A recent ground survey by SWALIM indicates that there are several open and weak river embankments in Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye districts with some ranging from 500m to 1,000m wide. Some villages continue to be under water since August 2020. River levels are within normal along the Juba. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates moderate to heavy rains in central and parts of southern regions including, Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan and Bakool regions. No rains are expected along the Juba and in Somaliland during the forecast period. The Ethiopian highlands whose soil moisture is already saturated due to heavy rains since July 2020 will see an increase of rainfall amounts this week. This will subsequently lead to a further increase in river levels especially along the Shabelle river. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle while there is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba River. There is a also a high risk of flash floods in the built up low lying areas especially in Mudug and Galgaduud regions

The Deyr 2020 rainy season (Sept/Oct—Dec) continued to spread in a few places during the last week. A dry period was observed in greater parts of Somaliland which has not recorded any rains since the beginning of the month. Light to moderate rains were observed in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period. The last few days saw a reduction of river levels along the Shabelle. Currently, levels are within normal in Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti districts while the mid and lower reaches are still at high levels. Today’s River level at Belet Weyne is 5.25m, a drastic drop from last week; while in Jowhar the level is 5.20m, which is almost at bank-ful. In Agfooye, the levels are at full capacity and most parts of the riverine areas remain inundated. A recent ground survey by SWALIM indicates that there are several open and weak river embankments in Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye districts with some ranging from 500m to 1,000m wide. Some villages continue to be under water since August 2020. River levels along the Juba increased slightly during the last few days due to moderate rains in the Ethiopian highlands. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates moderate to heavy rains in many areas across the country, with minimal rains in the western parts of Somaliland and south of Bari region in Puntland. The Ethiopian highlands whose soil moisture is already saturated due to heavy rains since July 2020 will see an increase of rainfall amounts this week. This will subsequently lead to a further increase in river levels especially along the Shabelle river. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the lower reaches of Shabelle while along the Juba River there is Moderate Risk of flooding foreseen . There is a also a High Risk of flash floods in the built up low lying areas especially in Bay and Bakool regions

Many places received light to moderate rains across Somalia in the last two days as the Deyr rainy season continued to spread albeit with a delay in some areas. Hiraan, Bakool and Bay regions in the south recorded heavy rains of up to 60mm within 24 hours. Light to moderate rains were observed in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period. River levels are within normal in Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti districts while the mid and lower reaches are still at high levels. Today’s River level at Belet Weyne is 5.00m while Jowhar is 5.25m which is almost at bank-ful. In Agfooye, the levels are at full capacity and most parts of the riverine areas remain inundated. A recent ground survey by SWALIM indicates that there are several open and weak river embankments in Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye districts with some ranging from 500m to 1,000m wide. Some villages continue to be under water since August 2020. River levels along the Juba increased slightly during the last few days due to moderate rains in the Ethiopian highlands. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates moderate to heavy rains in many areas across the country. In the western parts of Somaliland and south of Bari region in Puntland the rains will be less. The Ethiopian highlands whose soil moisture is already saturated due to heavy rains since July 2020 will see an increase of rainfall amounts this week. This will subsequently lead to a further increase in river levels especially along the Shabelle river. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the lower reaches of Shabelle while along the Juba River there is Moderate Risk of flooding foreseen . There is a also a High Risk of flash floods in the built up low lying areas especially in Galgaduud, Mudug, Bay and Bakool regions

Current ongoing floods affected more than 132,000 ha of agricultural land and 294 villages in Belet Weyne, Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye, a positive trend in flood frequency is observed in Belet Weyne, especially in the last 5 years. The severity of the floods has also gone up with time. Gu season is most vulnerable, as more floods occurred during this time, a positive trend of annual rainfall amounts has also been observed. This can be lined to climate change, but subject to further analysis,a new analysis of the status of Shabelle and Juba river was finalized by SWALIM indicates that there are 154 open river breakages which pose threat to flooding.

The Deyr 2020 rainy season (Sept/Oct—Dec) is expected to start in late September in the northern parts and mid October in the southern areas. However, some parts of the northern regions have been receiving rains since the first week of this month. On 16 and 17 September, heavy rains that led to flash floods and destruction of properties in KarKar district of Puntland were reported. About 300 people were affected by the flash floods in Duudhayo village. There was reduction of rainfall amounts within the Ethiopian highlands over the last week. This subsequently led to a slight reduction of river flow along the Shabelle River. However, river levels are still very high along the entire channel and flooding continue to be reported in parts of the riverine areas. In Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti, the river levels are still above the high flood risk level to date. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates moderate rains in Bari and Sanaag regions of Puntland and the coastal areas of Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba regions. Heavy rains are foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands during the week in forecast. This may lead to an increase of river levels along the Shabelle river thus increasing the risk of flooding especially in Hiraan region. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle while there is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba River.

Deyr (Sep/Oct-Dec) season rainfall is usually of shorter duration and less amount and intensity compared to Gu (April-June) season rainfall. However, they are beneficial in supporting seasonal agricultural activities and replenishing water and pasture resources. Generally, Deyr season starts in late September and ends in early December, but this varies from place to place across the country, with the northern regions receiving rainfall much earlier than southern regions. According to the recently issued Seasonal Climate Forecast issued by IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), the 2020 Deyr rains in Somalia are likely to be below normal to near normal with a 45 percent chance of experiencing below normal rains and a 30 chance of near normal rains in Somaliland, central and southern regions of the country. Similarly, the upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in neighboring Ethiopia are also expected to record below normal to near normal rainfall during the 2020 Deyr season ( Map 1. Most parts of Puntland have equal chances of (35%) of experiencing normal or above normal rains during the season. Further, the outlook predicts a delayed start of the season with warmer than normal temperatures.

The early rains received in northern parts of Somalia since the first week of September continued to spread across the region over the last one week, marking an early start of the Deyr 2020 rainy season. Normally, the Sept/Oct—Dec rainy season is expected to start in late September in the northern parts and mid October in the southern areas of the country. The Ethiopian highlands, which contribute to the Juba and Shabelle river flow, continued to receive moderate rains over the last one week. River levels along the entire Shabelle River remained very high with flooding reported in parts of the riverine areas. In Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti the river levels are still above the high flood risk level to date, while in Jowhar the river is at moderate flood risk level. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates light to moderate rains spreading from the central to the northern parts of the country. Awdal Region will however will remain dry for the next one week. Bakool Region in the south is expected to receive light to moderate rains, while in the Ethiopian highlands there will be moderate to heavy rainfall over the same forecast period. This may lead to an increase of river levels along the Shabelle river thus increasing the risk of flooding especially in Hiraan and Middle Shabelle Regions. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle while there is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba River.

Moderate to heavy rains persisted in the upper parts of the Shabelle Basin within the Ethiopian highlands during the last week. Consequently, observed river levels of the Shabelle River in Somalia continued to rise. Today, the river level at Belet Weyne is 8.00m which only 0.30m away from bank-full level. Overbank spillage within Belet Weyne town could happen any time from now given the high river levels. Currently, Hawa-Hako and Hilaac sections of the district are flooded since mid August and unconfirmed number of people were displaced. Massive flooding has been reported 20km north of Belet Weyne town in the last 24 hours due to overbank spillage. A similar trend of exceptionally above normal river levels is being observed in Bulo Burti, Jalalaqsi, Mahadey weyne, Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye districts with floods being reported in several points due to overbank flow and lateral flows from broken river banks. The flooding situation has been exacerbated by weak river embankments and open river banks. As of today, an estimated 132,000 ha of agricultural land and 294 villages along the Shabelle River have been affected by the Hagaa floods. The rainfall forecast for the coming week (03—10 September 2020) is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains within the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands. Observed river levels along the Shabelle River are expected to continue rising further in the coming week following the foreseen rains. High risk of flooding is foreseen in Belet Weyne district. Flooding in the middle and lower reaches of the Shabelle will be sustained in the coming week given the current situation and the foreseen rains. Areas to watch include Jowhar town and its environs; where the river level is near full crest and other riverine towns in the Lower Shabelle region. Recent analysis by SWALIM indicates that there are 109 open river bank points along the Shabelle River.

Light to moderate rains continued to spread in the northern parts of Somalia over the past one week; while many areas in the south remained dry over the same period. At the Ethiopian highlands, where majority of the flow along Juba and Shabelle Rivers originate from, moderate to heavy rains continued to be experienced over the last one week. River levels along the Shabelle reduced slightly in the upper reaches, but remain above the high flood risk levels at Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti. In Jowhar the river level has risen from last week’s levels, and today it is at 5.20m, which is only 5cm below the high flood risk level. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates light to moderate rains spread across the northern parts of the country. Parts of Bari, Nugaal, Sool and Sanaag Regions, are expected to receive high rainfall in the forecast period, which may lead to flash floods. The central parts of the country are expected to receive light to moderate rains, while most of the southern parts of the country will remain either dry or receive little rains in the coming week. Within the Ethiopian highlands the forecast indicates moderate to heavy rains within the forecast period. This may lead to an increase of river levels along the Shabelle river thus increasing the risk of flooding especially in Hiraan and Middle Shabelle Regions. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle while there is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba River.

Following three consecutive significant rainy seasons, (Dery 2019, Gu 2020 and Hagaa 2020-traditionally dry) river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers have remained high for a long period with flooding due to overbank spillage and existing river breakages/weak embankments. The high rains and subsequent floods of Gu 2020 saw new open river banks. SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers using available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM); supported by “limited ground truthing” field observations, where feasible. Four types of breakages have been identified, namely; open, overflow, potential overflows and closed with sandbags. The open breakages are those that are currently open as observed on the latest VHR image available. The open breakages are further categorised into four classes in a chronological order, according to the assessment date and/or their former status as seen in the maps. All the observations reported refers to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. 154 Open points have been identified, 109 on the Shabelle River and 45 on the Juba River which require immediate action. It is noted that several new breakages occurred during the Gu 2020 season which was exceptionally good along the two rivers. Belet Weyne district was worst affected along the Shabelle while Bu’aale district was worst affected along the Juba. SWALIM has also embarked on a ground truthing survey along the Shabelle River in Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye districts. The survey aims to monitor existing open and weak riverbanks while capturing the dimensions of each point. The findings of the survey will be key to planning and interventions on those points. SWALIM is pleased to share with you maps and tables of the status of river breakages along the two rivers in the links below. This information is also available on the SWALIM website. Users are advised that the methodology is biased towards Remote Sensing (RS) interpretation with only limited “ground truthing” due to access constraints. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear (e.g. heavy cloud cover) or were not available.

n the south. Heavy rains were reported in parts of Sool and Sanaag regions in the last 24 hours. Las Caanood recorded a total of 97mm and Taleex received a total of 49mm on 30 September 2020. Qardo station also recorded heavy amounts of 30mm. The southern parts of the country recorded little or no rains in the last few days. There was reduction of rainfall amounts within the Ethiopian highlands over the last week. This subsequently led to a slight reduction of river flow along the Shabelle River. However, river levels are still very high along the entire channel and flooding continue to be reported in parts of the riverine areas. In Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti, the river levels are still above the high flood risk level to date. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates moderate to heavy rains in Sanaag, Sool, Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan and Bakool regions. Light to moderate rains are expected in Somaliland and most parts of the southern regions during the forecast period. The Ethiopian highlands whose soil moisture is already saturated due to heavy rains since July 2020 will see an increase of rainfall amounts this week. This will subsequently lead to a further increase in river levels especially along the Shabelle river. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle while there is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba River. There is a also a high risk of flash floods in the built up low lying areas of central regions, Bakool, Nugaal and Sool.

The upper parts of the Shabelle Basin in the Ethiopian Highlands continued to receive moderate rains during the last week. High river levels along the entire channel of Shabelle River also persisted with an increase of flood extents in Belet Weyne and Jalalaqsi districts. Today, 08 September, the river level at Belet Weyne is bank-full and there has been overbank spillage in parts of the town. Thousands of people have been displaced and have started to evacuate from high-risk areas to low risk areas since yesterday. In Bulo Burti, the river level is at high risk level of 7.00m and is expected to increase further. The river level at Jowhar remains high and is at 4.90m as of today. Flooding is currently reported also in Jalaalaqsi. The rainfall forecast for the week ending on 14 September 2020 indicates moderate rains in the Ethiopian highlands and minimal rains inside Somalia. Therefore, the levels are expected to continue rising along the entire channel of Shabelle as more waters from the eastern Ethiopian highlands are still streaming in. High risk of flooding is foreseen along the Shabelle during this week. It is advisable that riverine communities within low-lying areas of Belet Weyne who have not evacuated yet to do so, while following guidelines by the local authorities. Existence of river breakages (109 points identified and reported by SWALIM in Septemebr 2020) along the Shabelle is likely to exacerbate the flooding.

During the last week, there was a reduction of rainfall amounts in the southern parts of Somalia. On 11th August, a heavy storm was observed in Somaliland in Salaxley area, about 60km south of Hargeisa. The rainfall station in that area recorded a total of 44mm in less than 24 hours. This led to a significant damage of infrastructure including schools, houses, roads, electricity and interruption of communication network in the area. Moderate to heavy rains persisted in the upper reaches of the Shabelle Basin in Ethiopia during the same period. Consequently, river levels at Belet Weyne and other stations along the Shabelle inside Somalia continued to rise. Todays’ river level at Belet Weyne is 6.85m which means less than half a meter below the high risk level of flooding. The rainfall forecast for the coming week (13-19 August 2020) is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains within the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands. Little or no rains are foreseen in the basin within Somalia. Observed river levels along the Shabelle River are expected to continue rising further in the coming week following the foreseen rains in the upper catchment. Flooding along the Shabelle will be sustained in the coming week given the current situation and the foreseen rains. Areas to be monitored include Belet Weyne, Jalalaqsi, Jowhar town and its environs where the river level is near full crest, and other riverine towns in the Lower Shabelle region. The situation could be further exacerbated by weak river embankments and open river banks.

Unusual Haggai (July—August) seasonal rains persisted in some parts of the southern regions of Somalia during the last week. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands also saw significant amounts of rainfall during the same period. Consequently, observed river levels of the Shabelle River in Somalia continued to rise over the last week. The current Shabelle river levels in Hiraan and Middle Shabelle regions are currently above the historical normal range while the levels are at bank full levels in Lower Shabelle. Flooding has been reported in parts of Belet Weyne district within Hawa-Hako and Hilaac sections displacing unconfirmed number of people. Other areas where floods have been reported include Mahadey Weyne and Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye districts. The situation has been exacerbated by weak river embankments and open river banks especially in Jowhar and Balcad districts where more than 20, 000Ha of land remains inundated. The rainfall forecast for the coming week (04—10 August 2020) is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains within the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands. Observed river levels along the Shabelle River are expected to continue rising further in the coming week following the foreseen rains. Flooding in the middle and lower reaches of the Shabelle will be sustained in the coming week given the current situation and the foreseen rains. Areas to watch include Jowhar town and its environs; where the river level is near full crest and other riverine towns in the Lower Shabelle region. There exists several open river bank points in these areas and this will only worsen the situation.

The Ethiopian highlands have received heavy rainfall since beginning of July 2020, which has caused significant increase in Shabelle river flow in Somalia. The river level at Belet Weyne today is 6.75m surpassing the moderate level of flooding in the area. In Bulo Burti, the levels are increasing steadily and today the river level is ta 5.40m, which is 1.10m meters below the moderate risk level of flooding. Flooding has been reported in Belet Weyne district following the existence of open river bank points and weak river embankments. According to analysis based on remotely sensed data, about 11 villages have been affected by the unusual floods while 6 km2 of agricultural land has been inundated in the district. This follows another flood season (Gu 2020) that saw massive destruction of properties in the area and damage of crops. It is worth noting that the existence of open river breakages and weak river embankments have exacerbated the flooding. Further, there has been massive sedimentation along the Shabelle River bed in the recent past, which has caused a rise in the riverbed with about 0.5 m. There are several ongoing efforts to mitigate the recurrent flooding in the district by the local communities, Hirshabelle authority and foreign aid. However, a long-term solution is needed which includes river basin management.

The 2020 Gu rainy season was generally good with many areas in Somalia recording normal to above normal rains (Map 1 & 2 and Annex I). There was an early start of the season in late March in some areas and continued to spread spatially with a peak during the last two weeks of April. The season came to an early end during the second half of May. The good rains were beneficial to most water dependent sectors which saw a boost in the growth of pasture and crops in many areas and especially in the north eastern and central parts of the country which had a poor rainfall performance in the previous season. The rains also contributed to significant ground water recharge which had been depleted previously. There was also an improvement in animal body conditions thus more reproduction and availability of milk and meat. On the other hand, the heavy rains experienced in April led to both flash and riverine flooding affecting about 919 0001 people of whom 411, 905 were displaced and 24 killed. Further, along the Juba and Shabelle basins, more than 100,000 km2 of land was inundated as seen in Annex II. Belet Weyne town in Hiraan region was the worst affected by the floods and remained submerged for over two weeks. It is also worth noting that while the overall rainfall amounts for the season are mostly average to above average, there was a prolonged dry period since mid-May that is adversely impacting crop harvest prospects.

Observed river levels of the Shabelle River in Somalia have been rising for the past two weeks. This has been attributed to heavy rains in the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands and localized rains in Lower Shabelle. The current Shabelle river levels at the upper reaches in Somalia are slightly above the historical normal range, while the lower reaches are at bank full levels. This has resulted in over bank spillage leading to riverine floods in parts of Jowhar, Balcad, Genaale and Afgooye. About 24,000Ha land is currently inundated along the Shabelle affecting over 150 villages. The rainfall forecast for the coming week (24—30 July 2020) is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains within the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands and within Lower Shabelle inside Somalia. Observed river levels along the Shabelle River are expected to continue rising further in the coming week following the foreseen rains. Flooding in the middle and lower reaches of the Shabelle will be sustained in the coming week given the current situation and the foreseen rains. Areas to watch include Jowhar town and its environs; where the river level is near full crest and other riverine towns in the Lower Shabelle region. The situation could be further exacerbated by weak river embankments and open river banks. Along the Juba river levels are within normal for this period of the year.