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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 06-11-2017

The last few days continued to record good rains in many parts of the southern and central regions of Somalia while the northern regions remained relatively dry. The good rains are expected to continue in the next seven days. With a reduction of intensity and spatial distribution towards the end of the week. River levels are expected to continue rising with a moderate to high risk of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Flash floods may also occur in areas where the forecast indicates high rainfall.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 13-11-2017

The last 10 days have seen extremely heavy rains in some parts of southern and central regions of Somalia causing flooding and displacements in a few places. Bay region saw the heaviest amounts of rainfall with some station surpassing the annual average rains in a few days. Rainfall activities are expected to decrease in the coming week given the 3 days and one week rainfall forecasts. There remains a moderate to high risk of flooding in the middle and lower reaches of both Juba and Shabelle rivers where the river levels are currently very high.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 30-10-2017

Light to moderate rains continued in some places across the country with the southern regions recording relatively good rains in many places. Heavy rains are foreseen in the coming week in South and central regions of Somalia. The Ethiopian highlands are also expected to get heavy rains within the forecast week. Given the rainfall forecast, the river levels are expected to rise and causing moderate to high risk of flooding in Middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River towards the end of the week.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 11-10-2017

The three days cumulated rainfall forecast is pointing towards light to moderate rains in central and southern regions of the country and this is expected to increase in quantity and space as the week progresses, given the one week forecast. Light rains are also expected in the upper parts of Ethiopian highlands whose rainfall contribute significantly to the river flow in Somalia. River levels in the middle reach of Shabelle are currently high with a high risk of flooding in Jowhar and the environs.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 18-10-2017

The three day cumulated rainfall forecast is pointing towards light to moderate rains in scattered areas of the country and this is expected to increase in quantity and space as the week progresses, given the one week forecast. Light rains are also expected in the upper parts of Ethiopian highlands whose rainfall contribute significantly to the river flow in Somalia. River levels in the middle reach of Shabelle are currently high with a high risk of flooding in Jowhar and its environs.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 25-10-2017

The three days cumulated rainfall forecast is pointing towards light rains in the southern regions bordering Kenya and Scattered places in Somaliland. Light rains are also expected in parts of Bari region of in the north within the three days. The one week forecast is calling for increased rains in Somaliland and the upper parts of the Juba and Shabelle basins within the Ethiopian highlands. River levels in the middle reach of Shabelle are currently high with a moderate risk of flooding in Jowhar and the environs given the rainfall forecast.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 21-09-2017

The three day cumulated rainfall forecast (Map 1) is pointing towards light to moderate rains in scattered areas of the country and this is expected to increase in quantity and space as the week progresses, given the one week forecast (Map 2). Light rains are also expected in the upper parts of Ethiopian highlands whose rainfall contribute significantly to the river flow in Somalia. River levels in the middle reach of Shabelle are currently high with a high risk of flooding in Jowhar and its environs.

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Deyr 2017 Somalia Rainfall Outlook Bulletin - Issued: 29 August 2017

Normal to below normal rains expected in most parts of Somalia during the Deyr 2017 season. The Deyr rains are usually shorter and less in quantity than the Gu rains. However, they are beneficial in supporting agricultural activities and boosting water availability for different uses. Generally the season starts in late September and ends in November. Nevertheless, this varies from place to place across the country with the northern parts receiving the rains much earlier than the southern parts. The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) has confirmed a drastic reduction of the chances of experiencing an El Nino event during the September to December rainy season. The rainfall forecast indicates that the Deyr 2017 season in Somalia is expected to be normal (40% probability of normal rains) with a tendency of 35 % probability of below normal rains in most parts of the country. This also includes part of the Ethiopian highlands which contribute significantly to both Juba and Shabelle river flow inside Somalia. Further, the southern coastal regions of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle are expected to experience normal rains (40% probability of normal rains) with a tendency of 35% above normal rains. This forecast is a consensus forecast designed for a regional audience that addresses the rainfall totals summed over the three-month period from October to December 2017. However, SWALIM and other technical partners will keep updating this forecast  for shorter lead time periods and will share with you through the regular bulletins throughout the rainfall season. Given the existing conditions and the rainfall forecast, problems related to water scarcity are likely to persist especially in the northern parts of the country where the previous three rainy seasons were below normal. There is also potential for human-livestock conflicts over limited water resources in these areas. Close monitoring of the situation and contingency measures are necessary in order to adequately cope with the situation. However, flash floods cannot be ruled out as well as river line flooding due to weak river embankments and artificial river bank breakages for irrigation purposes. Increased water supply is expected in areas where normal rains will be experienced. In such cases, communities should take advantage of the rains to harvest rain-water for future use, using simple technologies. On the other hand, in case of depressed rains replenishing of the surface water points may be minimal and therefore communities should use the available resources sparingly.

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The SWALIM Update Issue 13

Welcome to yet another edition of the SWALIM Update, in this edition we cover; SWALIM Runs Webinar on Land and Water Data Collection Using Low Cost Smartphones in Somalia, SWALIM Maps Prosopis invaded areas in Somaliland, Impacts of river breakages monitoring on communities along Shabelle River, SWALIM Supports the Drought Operation & Coordination Centre (DOCC) in Mogadishu, Monitoring of Charcoal Production in South Central Somalia and the Use of Live Map for Water Sources Information Access in Drought Response.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 09-06-2017

There has been a significant reduction of rainfall activities across Somalia over the last one week marking a possible end of the Gu rainy season in many parts of the country. Little or no rains are foreseen in the country in the next one week. Following the reduction of rainfall activities within the Juba and Shabelle River basins both in Ethiopia and Somalia, river levels have been decreasing gradually and are expected to stabilize in the coming week. There is no foreseen risk of flooding along the two rivers.

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Gu 2017 Rainfall Performance Bulletin

Somalia is in the second year of a severe drought the kind that is increasingly likely as the climate warms. Somali communities were looking forward to a relief from the Gu 2017 rainfall season but the devastating drought conditions meant that the country experienced yet another below-average season affecting the recovery of the key livelihood sectors; agricultural and livestock. So far, drought conditions continues to affect Somalia; a situation that may persist until the next rainy season in October. The Gu rainy season was generally poor in most parts of the country except some places in Puntland and Somaliland that saw good rains during the month of May. The southern regions of Middle Juba, Lower Juba and southern Bay also recorded good rains during the months of May and June. Regions that recorded very poor rains include Mududg, Galgaduud, Hiraan, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Bakool, Gedo and southern parts of Bay (Map 1). The Gu rains were sporadic and scattered. In March, a few pockets of Somaliland recorded good rains followed by a long dry period until end of April when the rains started in most parts albeit very late. The rains then spread in space, time and quantity in May. While many parts continued to receive rains until the last week of May, there was an early cessation of the rains in many parts of south and central regions except South of Bay and Middle and Lower Juba regions that continued to receive rains in June. Even with the rains, most parts of the country remain under drought conditions with the impacts being felt across the country. More rains are required to end the ongoing drought in the country and the drought situation is expected to continue until the coming Deyr season in October. It is important to note that only 20% to 40% of the ground water sources have been sufficiently recharged throughout the country. The rest remain water stressed. The rains, though poorly distributed, eased stress levels for the livestock sector due to regrowth of pasture, which provided grazing lands. Areas with below normal rains also saw regrowth of pasture, but may not last until the next season expected in October. If El Niño predictions for late 2017 prove correct, Deyr rainfall in Somalia could be substantial. Most climate models gives the El Niño event a 45 percent chance of returning in 2017. El Niño events tends to cause enhanced rainfall events in Somalia, generally cool temperatures and lots of run-off, which would be good for both ground and surface water recharge in the country.

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Somalia Flood Watch Bulletin 19-05-2017

The northern parts of he country and coastal areas in the south will continue to receive light rains in the next three days. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is pointing towards heavy rains in Nugaal, South of Sool and north of Mudug regions. Other regions in the north will receive light to moderate rains. The upper parts of Ethiopian highlands and southern coastal areas of Somalia are expected to receive moderate rains. Little or no rains are expected in central and inland southern regions of the country during the forecast period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 09-05-2017

Light to moderate rains continued to be received in a few places across the country in the last two days. The rains are expected to continue in most parts of the country in the next seven days. The rainfall forecast for the coming week (Map 2), indicates moderate to heavy rains in Somaliland and Puntland. Light to moderate rains are foreseen in the southern parts while central regions are expected to remain dry during the same period. The Ethiopian highlands are also expected to continue receiving rains during the same period. This is will turn lead to a further increase in river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Riverine flooding has been reported in Middle reaches of the Shabelle River due to existing open river banks and weak river embankments. There remains a moderate risk of flooding in middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. No risk of flooding is foreseen along the Juba. Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between forecast and actual amounts of rainfall received.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 23-05-2017

Most regions of Somalia will remain dry for the next three days, apart from few areas in Somaliland and Puntland where light showers are expected in the same period. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is pointing towards light to moderate rains in Puntland and parts of Somaliland. Light rains are also expected in a few areas in the Central and coastal areas of the South. The upper parts of Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive moderate rains. Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between forecast and actual amounts of rainfall received.

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Somalia Flood Watch Bulletin 10-05-2017

During the week ending on 09 May 2017, there were light to moderate rains within the Juba and Shabelle river basins both inside Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is pointing towards light to moderate rains within the Juba and Shabelle river basins with heavy rains foreseen in the coastal areas of the basins inside Somalia. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands are also expected to record significant rains during the week in focus. Following the rains that were recorded in the basins in the last few weeks, the river levels along the two rivers rose significantly and are currently above normal levels at this time of the year. Given the rainfall forecast and the high river levels, there is a high risk of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River. Flooding in Middle Shabelle has been reported in Madheere Village and has caused damage to large amounts of cropped area and displacement of some households. There is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba during the forecast period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 25-05-2017

Most parts of Somalia will remain dry for the next three days, apart from few areas in Puntland where light showers are expected. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is pointing towards light to moderate rains in Puntland and parts of Somaliland. Light rains are also expected in the coastal areas of the Central and South Somalia. The upper parts of Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive moderate rains.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 15-05-2017

Light rains are expected to prevail for the next 3 days (Map 1) in a few places within Puntland and Somaliland as well as the coastal areas of southern regions in Somalia. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 21 May 2017 (Map 2) shows light to moderate in parts of Somaliland, Puntland and coastal areas of southern Somalia including the Ethiopian highlands. Most of the rains are expected towards the end of the week. Other parts of the country will remain dry during the forecast period. The river levels are also expected to rise given the forecast.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 02-05-2017

Rainfall activities intensified in many parts of the country over the last three days. Flash floods were reported in some places including Bari, Nugaal, Mudug and Bay regions following the heavy rains. Most stations in these regions recorded over 50mm in the three days with Baidao station recording 100mm on 30 April 2017. The rains are expected to continue in most parts of the country in the next seven days but with less magnitude. The Ethiopian highlands are also expected to continue receiving rains during the same period. This is will turn lead to increased river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. There is no risk of flooding along the rivers during the forecast period. Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between forecast and actual amounts of rainfall received.

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Somalia Flood Watch Bulletin 16-05-2017

During the week ending on 16 May 2017, there was a significant reduction of rains within the Juba and Shabelle river basins inside Somalia. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands continued to receive good rains during the same period. Map - 1 shows the total satellite Rainfall Estimates (RFE) for the same reporting period while Map –2 shows the rainfall forecast for coming week. The rainfall forecast for the coming week (Map – 2) is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains in the basins both in the Ethiopian highlands and inside Somalia.no Following the rains that were recorded in the basins in the last few weeks, the river levels along the two rivers rose significantly and are currently above normal levels at this time of the year Given the rainfall forecast and the high river levels, there remains a high risk of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River. Flooding in Middle Shabelle has been reported in Mahadey, Jowhar and Balcad districts which have caused damage to large amounts of cropped area and displacement of some households. There is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba during the forecast period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 04-05-2017

Light to moderate rains continued to be received in a few places across the country in the last two days. Togdheer and Woqooyi Galbeed regions in Somaliland recorded good rains which was well distributed in space and time since 01 May 2017. Southern parts of the country also received good rains in a few pockets since the beginning of the month. There was a significant reduction of rainfall activities in Puntland over the last two days. The rains are expected to continue in most parts of the country in the next seven days but with less magnitude. The Ethiopian highlands are also expected to continue receiving rains during the same period. This is will turn lead to increased river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Riverine flooding has been reported in Middle reaches of the Shabelle River due to existing open river banks and weak river embankments. Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between forecast and actual amounts of rainfall received.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 17-05-2017

The northern parts of he country and coastal areas in the south will continue to receive rains in the next three days. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains in the basins both in the Ethiopian highlands and inside Somalia. Many areas in Puntland and Somaliland will also continue to receive rains during this period

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Somalia Rainfall Update - March to 04 May 2017

The Gu rainy season kicked off in the last week of March in some areas of Somaliland including southern parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed and Togdheer regions. The March rains were poorly distributed in terms of space and time, but provided an immediate relief to water stressed areas. The month of April saw a reduction of rainfall activities with most stations recording below normal rains for the month. There was a relief in the last week of April when heavy rains were observed in many areas. A few stations continued to receive rains in the beginning of May especially in Togdheer region. In general, despite the good short lived rains, the amounts so far received in Somaliland are below average and not adequate to support the current water stress in the area. More rains with good distribution are required to end water scarcity. The Forecast for the coming two weeks calls for continued rains in the area especially in Woqooyi Galbeed and Togdheer regions. River levels along the two rivers inside Somalia have subsequently been rising since the last two weeks with the rising trend set to continue in the coming weeks.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 04-04-2017

The Gu 2017 rainy season started in parts of Somaliland during the last week of March. Many stations in the region recorded moderate rains while southern parts of Awdal region recorded heavy rains that were distributed within five days. This brought an immediate relief to the area which has been experiencing a prolonged dry period like the rest of the country. More rains are expected in April and May. The rains are yet to start in many other areas of the country, including Puntland and southern regions. The rainfall forecast for today (Map 1) indicates no significant rainfall amounts but the rains are expected to intensify with the time and space during the week ending on 10th April, 2017 as seen in Map 2. The Cumulated rainfall forecast for the week is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains in the southern regions and the Ethiopian highland (20 to 100mm). Light to moderate rains of up to 40mm is expected in Somaliland while Puntland and central regions will remain dry.

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Somali Dekadal Rainfall - Dekad 11 of 2017

The Gu rains started in may parts of Somalia with below average performance in Southern regions. During the second Dekad of April 2017 (11th – 20th), there was a reduction of rainfall activities in in many places from the previous dekad. The season is yet to start in Puntland and the central regions of the country which remained dry remained dry during the same period causing more concern in the drought stricken areas. Moderate rains received in the in the Ethiopian highlands in the beginning of the month led to an increase of river levels along the Juba and Shabelle.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 05-04-2017

The Gu 2017 rainy season started in parts of Somaliland during the last week of March with the southern parts of Awdal region recording heavy rains that were distributed within five days. This brought an immediate relief to water stress in the area. The other parts of the country are expected to start receiving the Gu rains by mid April. The rainfall forecast for today (Map 1) indicates light rains of up to 20mm in the southern regions, parts Somaliland and the Ethiopian highlands. The rains re expected to increase in the same areas towards the end of the week as seen in Map 2 which is valid up to 11 April 2017. Little or no rains are foreseen in Puntland and central regions during the forecast period.

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