Flood advisory for Lower Shabelle - Issued 24 July 2020
Observed river levels of the Shabelle River in Somalia have been rising for the past two weeks. This has been attributed to heavy rains in the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands and localized rains in Lower Shabelle. The current Shabelle river levels at the upper reaches in Somalia are slightly above the historical normal range, while the lower reaches are at bank full levels. This has resulted in over bank spillage leading to riverine floods in parts of Jowhar, Balcad, Genaale and Afgooye. About 24,000Ha land is currently inundated along the Shabelle affecting over 150 villages. The rainfall forecast for the coming week (24—30 July 2020) is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains within the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands and within Lower Shabelle inside Somalia. Observed river levels along the Shabelle River are expected to continue rising further in the coming week following the foreseen rains. Flooding in the middle and lower reaches of the Shabelle will be sustained in the coming week given the current situation and the foreseen rains. Areas to watch include Jowhar town and its environs; where the river level is near full crest and other riverine towns in the Lower Shabelle region. The situation could be further exacerbated by weak river embankments and open river banks. Along the Juba river levels are within normal for this period of the year.
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