Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued: 28 September 2020

Rainfall Forecast
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Light to moderate rains continued to spread in the northern parts of Somalia over the past one week; while many areas in the south remained dry over the same period. At the Ethiopian highlands, where majority of the flow along Juba and Shabelle Rivers originate from, moderate to heavy rains continued to be experienced over the last one week. River levels along the Shabelle reduced slightly in the upper reaches, but remain above the high flood risk levels at Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti. In Jowhar the river level has risen from last week’s levels, and today it is at 5.20m, which is only 5cm below the high flood risk level. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates light to moderate rains spread across the northern parts of the country. Parts of Bari, Nugaal, Sool and Sanaag Regions, are expected to receive high rainfall in the forecast period, which may lead to flash floods. The central parts of the country are expected to receive light to moderate rains, while most of the southern parts of the country will remain either dry or receive little rains in the coming week. Within the Ethiopian highlands the forecast indicates moderate to heavy rains within the forecast period. This may lead to an increase of river levels along the Shabelle river thus increasing the risk of flooding especially in Hiraan and Middle Shabelle Regions. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle while there is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba River.
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Date of publication: 
September, 2020