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Somali Floods Update - Issued 04 May 2020

The week that ended on 03 May saw increased rainfall in most regions in Somalia. Heavy rains led to flash floods in northern regions and riverine flooding along the Juba River in the south. The significant rains received so far, follows another above average rainy season, observed during the Deyr (October-December) 2019 season. There has been a general improvement in pasture and ground water recharge across the country. The rainfall forecast for this week is for more rains, especially in the Juba and Shabelle river basins, while there will be a slight reduction of rains in the northern regions. Moderate to high flood risk is likely to persist at least through mid-May, threatening urban and riverine populations, including in Belet Weyne (Hiran) and Jowhar (Middle Shabelle). Shabelle River: River levels continued to rise following heavy rains within the Shabelle River basin in both Ethiopia and inside Somalia. Mataban, Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti, Jowhar and Balcad rainfall stations recorded over 50mm in the last week. Today, the river level at Belet Weyne is 7.20m, which is just 0.10m less the high risk flood level and 1.10m less the bank-full level. The river level at Bulo Burti continued to rise slowly reaching 4.55m today. In Jowhar, the river level reached 5.30 m, which is the high-risk flood level and has remained so in the last four days. Localized flooding has been reported in Tugaarey village within Jowhar district. A similar trend has been observed in Balcad and the lower reaches of the river. The levels are expected to continue rising along the entire channel of Shabelle as more waters from the Ethiopian highlands are still streaming in. High risk of flooding is foreseen along the Shabelle during this week and the following week. Further, reports from the Ethiopian catchment indicate high river levels and flooding in some locations. There is therefore a high likelihood that these waters will reach in Belet Weyne in two to 5 days, which will likely exceed bank full level in the area. It is advisable that the riverine communities within Belet Weyne to prepare for possible evacuation in the course of the week. Existence of river breakages (50 points identified and reported by SWALIM in February 2020) along the Shabelle is likely to exacerbate the flooding situation unless urgent measures are taken. Juba River: River levels were very high at the beginning of last week and started to drop slightly in the last three days in Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere monitoring stations, all within Gedo region. Flood waters started to recede back to the river in Bardheere and this has in turn led to an increase of levels in the downstream reaches where flooding continue to be observed. Using high-resolution satellite images, SWALIM identified 51 Km2 of flood-affected areas along the Juba for the period 23 to 30 April 2020. The worst affected areas are found in Saakow, Buaale, Jilib and Jamame districts. Given the current high levels and rainfall forecast, there is a High risk of flooding along the entire Juba river channel. In Bay and Bakool regions: Heavy rains resulted to flash floods in some areas within Bay and Bakool regions. In the last week of April, Baidoa station recorded 190mm while Dinsor recorded 110mm of rainfall. In Bakool region, 88 mm and 178 mm of rainfall were recorded in Hudur and El Berde stations respectively in the same period. Flash floods were observed in Qansadheere, Dinsor districts where around 124 Ha of crop fields comprising of Sorghum, Maize, Beans and Sesame were affected. Moderate risk of flooding remains in this area. Puntland, Somaliland and Central regions: Since the beginning of the rainy season, moderate to heavy rains have been reported in many parts of the northern regions. Heavy storms in Qardho, Bari region and Burao in Togdheer region on the night of 27 April 2020 led to severe flash floods leading to massive destruction of properties and loss of lives. In Puntland, more than 10 stations in Bari, Nuugal and Mudug regions recorded heavy rains of between 50 mm to 100 mm cumulatively in the last seven days. Moderate rains have also been observed in Somaliland. This week will see a reduction of rainfall amounts in both areas with no risk of flash floods.

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Flood watch bulletin

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 07 May 2020

The ongoing Gu seasonal rains in the country have led to disruption of road networks in some areas which have experienced flash floods and riverine flooding. The most recent affected area was Badhan district in Sanaag region that received heavy rains on 05 and 06 May leading to flash floods that left tens of households displaced. Unconfirmed acreage of cropland has also been destroyed. Flash floods were also reported in the wadis of Bay and Bakool regions which have been experiencing heavy rains since the beginning of the season. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is for increased rainfall in the southern regions as well as the Ethiopian highlands. In the next three days, moderate to heavy rains are expected in these regions. This is likely to lead to flash floods especially in Bay, Bakool and Lower Juba where the rains will be intensified. A reduction of rainfall amounts is expected in the northern regions which will record light to moderate rains during the week. The river levels in Gedo, along the Juba reduced slightly in the last three days while an increasing trend was observed in Middle Juba and Lower Juba. Flooding is expected to continue during the week along the lower reaches of the river. The River levels along the Shabelle River at Belet Weyne today is at 7.74m which about half a meter away from the bank full level (8.30m). Since last night flooding has been reported in parts of the district specifically in two sections of Hawo Tako settlement (Dhagax Jebis and Shaah Macaan) where residents have began evacuating. In Jowhar, the river level has remained at the high flood risk level of 5.30m for the last one week. Given the forecast and existing high river levels, flooding alert remains in place for Belet Weyne until further notice.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 23 April 2020

The Gu rainy season continued to spread in time and space within Somalia. Moderate to heavy rains were reported in many places in the last two days since the last update. Gedo, Bay, Bakool and Middle Juba regions in the south recorded the highest amounts of rainfall. Heavy rains were also observed in Somaliland where some stations received a total of more than 100mm in a single day on 21 April 2020. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall activities in most areas inside Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. The rains will be between today and tomorrow followed by a slight reduction of the activities thereafter. There has been very heavy rains within the Juba basin over the last 24 hours. Flash floods have been reported in Dollow this morning while the river level at Luuq is 0.50m away from the moderate flood risk level. The levels in Bardheere have surpassed the moderate flood risk level and flooding has been reported in the area. In Middle Juba region, the levels are also very high and expected to continue rising. There is therefore a High risk of flooding along the Juba River during this week. The River levels along the Shabelle River remain below normal at this time of the year. Given the rainfall forecast within the Ethiopian highlands, the levels are expected o continue rising with no foreseen immediate threat of flooding. There is also a High risk of flash floods in Bay region due to foreseen heavy rains within the next 24 hours.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 08 April 2020

Most parts of Somalia will remain dry in the next seven days, apart from some areas in Gedo, Bay, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions, in the south where light to moderate rains are expected. Moderate wet conditions are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands within the week. Other areas including Somaliland, Puntland and central regions will remain dry or receive minimal rains during the week. River levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers continued to rise gradually but still remains below normal at this time of the year. The levels may increase further towards the end of the week with no risk of flooding.

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Somali Floods Update - Issued 27 April 2020

The 2020 Gu (April-June) seasonal rains continued to intensify across Somalia during the 4th week of April. Compared to the previous two weeks, there was a significant increase of rainfall in most parts of Somalia as well as the eastern Ethiopian highlands. Many areas observed more than three days of consecutive heavy rains across the country. The good rains received so far have continued to replenish water and pasture resources. An improvement in livestock body conditions and milk production has been reported as well. On the downside, parts of the country experienced flash flood and flooding has begun in the Juba and Shabelle rivers. Following heavy rains, river levels increased considerably along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers leading to flooding along the Juba. Flash floods were also experienced in Bay and Bakool Regions. Shabelle River: Heavy rains within the Shabelle basin both in Ethiopia and inside Somalia have led to a drastic increase in river levels along the Shabelle River. Most of the stations in the basin recorded 50 mm to 100 mm of rainfall in the last three days. In Belet Weyne and surrounding areas, river levels recorded a sharp increase in the last 72 hours, which has seen a rise of 3.50 m to 6.00 m as of today. This is only 0.50 m below the moderate flood risk level. The river level at Bulo Burti is 3.50 m, which is 1.5 m increase in the last 72 hours, and is 2.5 m below the moderate flood risk level; however, this is likely to increase rapidly in the next few days. In Jowhar, there has been a 1.00 m increase in river level in the last 24 hours following heavy rains in the area last night. A similar trend has been observed in Balcad and the lower reaches of the river. The river levels are expected to continue rising along the entire channel of Shabelle as more waters from the Ethiopian highlands are still streaming in. High risk of flooding is therefore foreseen along the Shabelle during this week and through early May. Existence of river breakages (50 points identified and reported by SWALIM in February 2020) is likely to exacerbate the flooding situation unless urgent measures are taken. Juba River: River levels increased sharply last week following heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands and within Somalia. Flash floods were observed in Dollow town leading to destruction of some business premises and houses. Further, riverine flooding has been reported north of Dollow town where the Dawa and Juba rivers converge, leading to inundation of unconfirmed acreage of cropland. Floods were also observed around Luuq town leading to inundation of cropped area. In Gedo region around Bardheere, river levels remain very high and have surpassed the high-risk flood level this morning. Flooding in the area started since 23 April 2020 and continues to date. Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions are experiencing high river levels with flooding being reported in these reaches. River levels are expected to fluctuate in the coming week with a high risk of flooding along the entire Juba river channel. In Bay and Bakool regions: Heavy rains resulted led to flash floods which have affected some IDP settlements within Baidoa town. Bur Hakaba, Baardale, Huddur and Qansadheere districts were the most affected. Moderate risk of flooding remain in this area. Puntland, Somaliland and Central regions: Since the beginning of the rainy season, moderate to heavy rains have been reported in many parts of the northern regions. In Somaliland, more than 10 stations in Woqooyi Galbeed and Togdheer regions recorded heavy rains of more than 50 mm to 100 mm cumulatively. Moderate rains have also been observed in Puntland; however, a few places in Bari and Nuugal regions have only recorded light rains during the month.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 14 April 2020

The last one week saw a significant reduction of rainfall activities in Somalia with light rains being observed in scattered areas across the country as the Gu season continues to spread. The rainfall forecast for the next three days is calling for moderate rains of up to 50mm cumulatively in most parts of Somaliland, Southern regions and the Ethiopian highlands with the intensity expected to increase as the week progresses. The weekly cumulative forecast indicates more than 100mm of rainfall within the Juba and Shabelle river basins both inside Somali and within the Ethiopian Highlands. The same amount of rainfall is foreseen in parts of Awdal, Toghdheer and Woqqoyi Galbeed in Somaliland. On the other hand, light or no rains are foreseen in the central regions of the country. The foreseen heavy rains will lead to an increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia with no risk of flooding along the rivers. Flash floods may occur in built up and low lying areas of Somaliland, Bay and Bakool regions where more rains are expected during the forecast period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 29 April 2020

The Gu rainy season continued to spread in time and space within Somalia leaving trails of devastating flood impacts in some locations. Heavy storms in Qardo, Bari region and Burao in Togdheer region on the night of 27 April 2020 led to severe flash floods leading to massive destruction of properties and loss of lives. In the southern regions, heavy rains within the Juba and Shabelle basins led to river flooding along the Juba River while the levels increased dramatically along the Shabelle. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall in most areas inside Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. Today, 29 April 2020, heavy storms are expected in southern parts of Wooqoyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Nugaal, Bari and Mudug regions in the northern regions. Parts of Bay and Bakool regions in the south are also expected to record good rains within the next 24 hours. Another bout of flash floods is high likely in the northern regions, especially Bari and Nugal regions, within the 24 to 48 hours period. Further, low lying areas of Bay and Bakool will experience the same given the forecast. The levels in Bardheere surpassed the high flood risk level, leading to severe river flooding in the area in the last two days. The flooding is expected to continue during this week. Floods are also reported in the middle and lower reaches of the Juba river. The River levels along the Shabelle River which increased sharply in the last few days are expected to remain so with high likelihood of flooding starting from 30 April 2020.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 17 April 2020

The last two days saw an increase in rainfall activities across Somalia. Most stations within the Juba and Shabelle basins in the south, recording 50 mm to 70 mm cumulatively. Moderate rains were also recorded in Somaliland while Puntland regions saw light rains in the last two days. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall activities in Somaliland, Southern parts of Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. Heavy rains of up to 100 mm are expected in these regions. Bari, Sool, Nugal and Mudug regions are expected to remain dry during the forecast period. The foreseen heavy rains will lead to an increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia with no risk of flooding along the rivers. Flash floods may occur in built up and low lying areas of Somaliland, Middle Juba, Bay and Bakool regions where more rains are expected during the forecast period.

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Saadaasha Roob-di’idda Soomaaliya – 17/4/2020

Toddobaakii la soo dhaafay waxaa la arkayey kororka roob-di’idda guud ahaan Soomaaliya. Meelo badan oo ku yaal dooxooyinka Juba iyo Shabeelle ee Koonfurta, waa la diiwaaniyey 50 mm ilaa 70 mm wadar ahaan. Roobab dhexdhexaad ayaa sidoo kale laga diiwaaniyey gudaha Soomaliland halka ay Puntland ka ahaayeen roobab fudfudud labadii maalin ee u dambeeyey. Saadaasha roob-di’idda toddobaadka soocda waxay sheegaysaa roobabka oo kordhaya gudaha Soomaaliland, qaybaha koonfureed ee Soomaaliya iyo gudaha buuraleyda Itoobiya. Roobab culculus oo gaara ilaa 100 mm ayaa laga filayaa gudaha gobolladaan. Gobollada Bari, Nugaal iyo Mudug waxaa la filayaa inay ahaadaan kuwo engegan inta lagu jiro muddada saadaashan. Roobabka culculus ee la saadaalinayo waxay horseedi doontaa koror ku yimaadaheerka qulqulka webiyada Juba iyo Shabeelle gudaha Soomaaliya oo lahayn halis fataadeed jiidda webiyada. Daadad ka soo rogmada meelaha sarsare oo saameeya meelaha hooseeya ee gobollada Soomaaliland, Jubada Dhexe, Bay iyo Bakool oo ayaa laga filayaa meelaha roobaka culculus ku da’aan inta lagu jiro muddada la saadaalinayo.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 01 April 2020

The last few days saw a reduction of rainfall activities across Somalia with most stations recording light or no rains. The Ethiopian highlands did not record any significant rains as well. The rainfall forecast for the coming seven days is calling for a further reduction of rains in most areas except the southern most tip of the country in Lower Juba that will continue receive light rains. No rains are foreseen within the Ethiopian highlands in the coming seven days. With no rains seen in the last few days, the river levels have dropped slightly and remain below normal at this time of the year. The trend is expected to continue until more rains are received in Mid April.

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