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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 14 April 2020

The last one week saw a significant reduction of rainfall activities in Somalia with light rains being observed in scattered areas across the country as the Gu season continues to spread. The rainfall forecast for the next three days is calling for moderate rains of up to 50mm cumulatively in most parts of Somaliland, Southern regions and the Ethiopian highlands with the intensity expected to increase as the week progresses. The weekly cumulative forecast indicates more than 100mm of rainfall within the Juba and Shabelle river basins both inside Somali and within the Ethiopian Highlands. The same amount of rainfall is foreseen in parts of Awdal, Toghdheer and Woqqoyi Galbeed in Somaliland. On the other hand, light or no rains are foreseen in the central regions of the country. The foreseen heavy rains will lead to an increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia with no risk of flooding along the rivers. Flash floods may occur in built up and low lying areas of Somaliland, Bay and Bakool regions where more rains are expected during the forecast period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 29 April 2020

The Gu rainy season continued to spread in time and space within Somalia leaving trails of devastating flood impacts in some locations. Heavy storms in Qardo, Bari region and Burao in Togdheer region on the night of 27 April 2020 led to severe flash floods leading to massive destruction of properties and loss of lives. In the southern regions, heavy rains within the Juba and Shabelle basins led to river flooding along the Juba River while the levels increased dramatically along the Shabelle. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall in most areas inside Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. Today, 29 April 2020, heavy storms are expected in southern parts of Wooqoyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Nugaal, Bari and Mudug regions in the northern regions. Parts of Bay and Bakool regions in the south are also expected to record good rains within the next 24 hours. Another bout of flash floods is high likely in the northern regions, especially Bari and Nugal regions, within the 24 to 48 hours period. Further, low lying areas of Bay and Bakool will experience the same given the forecast. The levels in Bardheere surpassed the high flood risk level, leading to severe river flooding in the area in the last two days. The flooding is expected to continue during this week. Floods are also reported in the middle and lower reaches of the Juba river. The River levels along the Shabelle River which increased sharply in the last few days are expected to remain so with high likelihood of flooding starting from 30 April 2020.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 17 April 2020

The last two days saw an increase in rainfall activities across Somalia. Most stations within the Juba and Shabelle basins in the south, recording 50 mm to 70 mm cumulatively. Moderate rains were also recorded in Somaliland while Puntland regions saw light rains in the last two days. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall activities in Somaliland, Southern parts of Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. Heavy rains of up to 100 mm are expected in these regions. Bari, Sool, Nugal and Mudug regions are expected to remain dry during the forecast period. The foreseen heavy rains will lead to an increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia with no risk of flooding along the rivers. Flash floods may occur in built up and low lying areas of Somaliland, Middle Juba, Bay and Bakool regions where more rains are expected during the forecast period.

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Saadaasha Roob-di’idda Soomaaliya – 17/4/2020

Toddobaakii la soo dhaafay waxaa la arkayey kororka roob-di’idda guud ahaan Soomaaliya. Meelo badan oo ku yaal dooxooyinka Juba iyo Shabeelle ee Koonfurta, waa la diiwaaniyey 50 mm ilaa 70 mm wadar ahaan. Roobab dhexdhexaad ayaa sidoo kale laga diiwaaniyey gudaha Soomaliland halka ay Puntland ka ahaayeen roobab fudfudud labadii maalin ee u dambeeyey. Saadaasha roob-di’idda toddobaadka soocda waxay sheegaysaa roobabka oo kordhaya gudaha Soomaaliland, qaybaha koonfureed ee Soomaaliya iyo gudaha buuraleyda Itoobiya. Roobab culculus oo gaara ilaa 100 mm ayaa laga filayaa gudaha gobolladaan. Gobollada Bari, Nugaal iyo Mudug waxaa la filayaa inay ahaadaan kuwo engegan inta lagu jiro muddada saadaashan. Roobabka culculus ee la saadaalinayo waxay horseedi doontaa koror ku yimaadaheerka qulqulka webiyada Juba iyo Shabeelle gudaha Soomaaliya oo lahayn halis fataadeed jiidda webiyada. Daadad ka soo rogmada meelaha sarsare oo saameeya meelaha hooseeya ee gobollada Soomaaliland, Jubada Dhexe, Bay iyo Bakool oo ayaa laga filayaa meelaha roobaka culculus ku da’aan inta lagu jiro muddada la saadaalinayo.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 01 April 2020

The last few days saw a reduction of rainfall activities across Somalia with most stations recording light or no rains. The Ethiopian highlands did not record any significant rains as well. The rainfall forecast for the coming seven days is calling for a further reduction of rains in most areas except the southern most tip of the country in Lower Juba that will continue receive light rains. No rains are foreseen within the Ethiopian highlands in the coming seven days. With no rains seen in the last few days, the river levels have dropped slightly and remain below normal at this time of the year. The trend is expected to continue until more rains are received in Mid April.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 20 April 2020

As the Gu rainy season continues, moderate to heavy rains were observed in many areas across the country especially in Somaliland and southern areas in the last one week. Some of the stations that recorded significant rains include; Mogadishu (76mm), Luuq (172mm), Bardheere 68(mm), Buaale (130mm), Balcad (75mm) and Bur Hakaba 71mm. Light rains were observed in Puntland and the central areas. Heavy rains in the Juba catchments have led to a significant increase in river levels. At Luuq and Bardheere stations located in Gedo region, the river levels increased drastically (+1.00m) in the last 24 hours. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall activities in most areas inside Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. Heavy rains of more than 100 mm cumulatively are expected in within the Juba and Shabelle regions and in Somaliland. Cumulative rains of 40mm to 60mm are expected in Puntland and central regions. The foreseen heavy rains will lead to an increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia. Given the rainfall forecast and the existing high river levels along the Juba, there is a moderate risk of flooding along the Middle sections of the Juba River. Flash floods may occur in built up and low lying areas of Somaliland, Middle Juba, Bay and Bakool regions where more rains are expected during the forecast period.

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Saadaasha Roob-di’idda Soomaaliya - 01 April 2020

Dhowrkii maalin oo dambe roob-di’iddii waa yaraatay guud ahaan Soomaaliya iyadoo xarumaha badankood ay diiwaangeliyeen roobab fudfud ama roob la’aan. Sidoo kaleb Buuraleyda sare ee Itoobiya qudheedu ma aysan diiwaangelin roobab macna leh. Saadaasha roob-di’idda ee todobada maalin oo socota waxay leedahay roobabku waa sii yaraanayaan meelaha intooda badan marka laga reebo koonfurta cirifika u dambeeya dalka gudaha Jubada Hoose halkaas oo ay ka sii socon doonaan roobab fudfud. Ma jiraan roobab laga odorosayo gudaha buuraleyda Itoobiya toddobada maalin ee soo socota. Roobab la’aanta la arkay dhowrkii maalin oo dambe, waxay keentay in heerarka webigu ay hoos u yara dhacaan oo ay gaaraan heer caadiga ka hooseysa waqtigaan kale sanadka. Waxaa la filayaa in xaaladda ay sidaas ku sii socoto ilaa roobab la helo bartamaha Abriil. Macaamiisha waxaa lala socodsiinayaa in tani tahay saadaal oo marmarka qaarkood ay kala duwanaadaan qiyaasaha iyo xaddiyada dhabta ah ee roobabka la helay. Macluumaadka saadaasha iyo heerarka webiga la arko waxaa loo cusboonaysinayaa si maalinle ah oo waxaa laga heli karaa xiriir kan: http://frrims.faoswalim.org.

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Status of River Breakages Along Juba and Shabelle Rivers - Issued March 2020

The Food and Agriculture Organization’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management (FAO SWALIM) Project, has finalized the analysis and mapping of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers using very high resolution satellite imagery. Breakages identified in the map have been classified into five different categories; Open, Overflow, Potential Overflows, Potential breakages and Closed with sandbags. A legend/Key for further explanation of the different types of breakages is provided here. The heavy rains during the Deyr 2019 rainy season led to increased flow causing overflow and riverbank breakages in sections of the two rivers. Henceforth, there was an increase of the open points from the previous assessment of August 2019. A total of 152 Open points have been identified, 100 on the Shabelle River and 52 on the Juba River which require immediate attention. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have also been identified. The Gu 2020 rainfall outlook is calling for enhanced rains within the Juba and Shabelle Rivers as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Consequently, river levels are expected to increase with a high likelihood of flooding especially where open and potential points have been identified. There is therefore an immediate need to close the open points and reinforce areas where there are weak river embankments. Intervening agencies are advised to take advantage of the current dry period until the rains start and carry out temporary or long term measures to close the river breakages. This will see a reduction of riverine flooding in case of heavy rains and consequently a massive reduction in economic losses to the country. SWALIM is pleased to share with you maps and tables of the status of river breakages along the two rivers. Hardcopies can be obtained from FAO SWALIM offices. It is worth noting that the methodology is biased towards Remote Sensing (RS) interpretation with only limited “ground truthing” due to constraints in accessing the areas. Open breakages and overflows might have been omitted or classified as potential in some cases where satellite images were not available or may not have been very clear due to heavy cloud cover and dense vegetation cover.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 24 March 2020

The Gu 2020 rainy season (March/April—June) has kicked off in some parts of the country since 20 March 2020. In Somaliland, Wajaale and Aburin stations recorded a total of 68mm and 40mm respectively with other regions receiving less than 30mm. In Puntland, Buhoodle and Baran stations recorded 30mm and 24mm respectively in the last two days. The last 24 hours also saw moderate rains in parts of the Juba and Shabelle basins in the south where Belet Weyne recorded 42mm and Buaale 13mm. The rains are expected to continue spreading in time and space during the coming weeks with the season expected to record enhanced rains before coming to an end in June 2020. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three days indicates light to moderate rains in many regions in the northern areas and scattered places in the south. Moderate rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highland whose rainfall is largely responsible for increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. The rains will then spread further as the week progresses with more intensity in the Ethiopian highlands and southern parts of Somalia. Most parts of the central areas will remain dry in the coming week. River levels are currently very low along the two rivers. Given the rainfall forecast, the levels will start to increase towards the end of the week with no risk of flooding during the forecast period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 27 March 2020

The Gu 2020 rains continued to be spread across the country in the last few days with moderate to heavy rains being recorded in the northern regions and light to moderate rains in the southern regions. The rains are yet to start in the central regions of the country. In Somaliland, Lughaye station and the surrounding areas received unusually heavy rains of 102mm on 26 March 2020. Hargeisa recorded 61mm while Gebiley saw a total of 40mm in the same day. The eastern side of Somaliland received light to moderate rains. Parts of Puntland also saw increased rainfall activities in the last three days with many stations recording good rains of between 20mm and 50mm. The southern regions also received good rains of about 20mm-50mm in the last two days. The rains are expected to continue spreading in time and space during the coming weeks with the season expected to record enhanced rains before coming to an end in June 2020. Moderate to heavy rains are expected on 27 March 2020 in the southern regions of Somalia especially in Bay, Bakool and the Juba regions. The cumulative weekly forecast is calling for a reduction of rainfall activities in the northern regions as well as within the Ethiopian highlands. The central regions will remain dry during the forecast period. There has been a slight increase in river levels over the last two days. The river levels are expected to continue increasing gradually with no risk of flooding during the forecast period.

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