Given the recent evolution of warmer than average Sea- Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, most global climate models have confirmed the presence and persistence of El Niño conditions throughout the October - December 2023 season. Moreover, similar warming of ocean waters near the East African coastline, together with cooling down of the waters near the western Australian coastline, which technically defines a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is expected to lead to above normal rains over most parts of East Africa. Somalia’s Deyr (October - December) “short rains” season is associated with the somewhat-faster southward movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which dictates much of the country’s climate. According to ICPAC, the climate outlook for the “Deyr Short Rains’’ season indicates an exceptionally high likelihood (85 %) of enhanced rainfall over southern parts of the country encompassing the catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers where up to 10 consecutive rainy days are probable. Upstream of the river catchments across the Ethiopian border, 4 - 6 consecutive rainy days are expected with higher likelihood of cumulative amounts exceeding 150 mm. In terms of associated risks, the enhanced amounts, more so consecutive rainy days, over Juba and Shabelle River catchments within the country and across the Ethiopian border will likely lead to flooding as from the third week of October. However, the forecast dry conditions over the southern parts of Somalia where the two river catchments lie in the month of September offer some lead time for intervention measures to be put in place to mitigate the potential flood risks. The forecast dry conditions over the agricultural zones in the southern parts of the country in the month of September are also opportune for land preparation. The subsequent rains will likely lead to substantial recharge of water sources, replenished water catchment levels, and improved soil moisture conditions. These will create favorable conditions for grass regeneration, offering fodder for the livestock, and timely crop planting across the agro-pastoral livelihoods.

Somalia grapples with the looming impacts of an impending El Niño, exacerbating the ongoing climate change challenges. Recurrent riverine and flash floods, particularly in urban centers like Beletweyne and Jowhar, are of significant concern. Urgent action is needed to prepare for and mitigate the forthcoming El Niño floods, aiming to safeguard lives and mitigate economic losses. Key to this strategy is proactive flood management, involving timely evacuations to higher ground. Identifying suitable elevated areas serves a dual purpose, ensuring safety and facilitating aid delivery. In this regard a rigorous GIS & RS methodology by SWALIM considered nine crucial factors, such as historical flood extent, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, drainage density, strategic boreholes, settlements, land cover, and roads, to isolate higher grounds suitable for evacuation. The resulting maps show safe areas for evacuation in case of flooding, while exercising discretion considering factors like proximity to schools, healthcare facilities, pest prevalence and any other unforeseen factors.

Rainfall Forecast: There is agreement among several forecast products that light to moderate rains of up to 100 mm is expected over the southwest state and central parts of the country, with some forecasting products anticipating more intense rains. The spatial variation of the consensus-based rainfall forecast is follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is expected over isolated areas in Galgaduud, Mudug and Hiraan regions. Specifically, such rains are likely over Ceel Buur district and southern parts of Cabudwaaq district in Galgaduud region, northern parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiran region, and northern parts of Jariiban district in Mudug region. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is anticipated over Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, Mudug, and Nugal regions. Rains of such intensity are also possible over northern parts of Bay region, southern parts of Bari region, and isolated areas in Sool, Togdheer and Woqqoyi Galbeed regions. Dry conditions are likely in extensive areas in the southern and northern parts of the country. In the north such dry conditions are expected over Awdal region, northeastern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region, Sanaag and Bari regions. In the south, such dry conditions are likely over Gedo region, coastal parts of Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba, and Lower Juba regions. However, there are chances of cloudiness leading up to light rains over some of these areas.

Review of the 2023 March-April-May (MAM) seasonal rainfall has demonstrated three key points: First, there was an early transition into the Gu (April-May-June) long rains season in Somalia this year. Secondly, above Long Term Mean (LTM) rainfall was received over Puntland and Somaliland and below LTM over South and Central Somalia. Thirdly, the observed rainfall was more in agreement with the forecast over South and Central Somalia and less over Somaliland. The early onset of the generally above-LTAM MAM rainfall led to substantial recharge of water sources, replenished water catchment levels, improved soil moisture conditions, creating favorable conditions for pasture regeneration, offering first line fodder for the livestock. It also favored land preparation and timely crop and fodder planting across the agro-pastoral livelihoods. However, the exceptionally heavy rains over both Shabelle and Juba River catchments in Ethiopian Highlands and the already-soaked soil conditions over the catchments within Somalia led to excessive overbank spillage resulting to devastating floods at Belet Weyne from 9th May, at Bulo Burti from 25th May and at Jalalaqsi from 26th May 2023. Flash floods occassioned by localised rains also occured in several places within Somalia like Bardheere from 23rd March 2023. The floods led to extensive damage to farmlands with earlier-grown crop and fodder and the grassland plains with devastating implications. Nonetheless, the MAM rains generally led to improved food security situation across the country particularly in the case of Somaliland where the observed rains were above LTM. The wetter than average projected rainfall conditions are likely to at least slow the loss of soil moisture and support agricultural and livestock productivity over South and Central Somalia over which below LTM Gu rains were observed. This bulletin presents both qualitative and quantitative review of the temporal and spatial variation of observed-, and verification of the forecast Gu rainfall season.

Moderate rainfall expected over southern coastal regions with light rains predicted over most other parts of Somalia during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial distribution of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is expected over the areas next to the coastline in the southern part of the country. These areas include the eastern and coastal parts of both Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts, eastern and southern parts of Afmadow district, and the entire Jamaame district in Lower Juba region. Similarly, moderate rains are also likely over Jilib district and the isolated areas in the southern part of Buále district in the Middle Juba region and over several areas in southern and western parts of both Sablaale and Baraawe districts in Lower Shabelle region. Some isolated areas in the north particularly over Eerigavo in Sanaag region are also likely to receive moderate rains. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected over several areas in Afmadow district and the western parts of Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region; Saakow district and northern parts of Buáale district in Middle Juba region; and southern and eastern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region. Similar rains are likely over Qoryoley, Kurtunwaarey, Marka, Afgooye and Wanla Weyne districts in Lower Shabelle region; several areas in Middle Shabelle and Bay regions; non-coastal areas of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region; and non-coastal areas of both Xaradheere district and southern Hobyo district in Mudug region. In the northern parts of the country, such light rains are likely over southern and central parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed; several isolated areas in Togdheer region; Xudun and Caynabo districts in Sool region; central border areas of Ceel Afweyne and Ceerigaabo districts, northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts in Sanaag region, areas in southern Bossaso district and northeastern parts of Iskushuban district in Bari region. Similarly lighter rains are also likely over the border areas between Garowe and Eyl districts in Nugaal region. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several areas in Afmadow district and the western parts of Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region; Saakow district and northern parts of Buáale district in Middle Juba region; and southern and eastern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region. Similar rains are likely over Qoryoley, Kurtunwaarey, Marka, Afgooye and Wanla Weyne districts in Lower Shabelle region; several areas in Middle Shabelle and Bay regions; non-coastal areas of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region; and non-coastal areas of both Xaradheere district and southern Hobyo district in Mudug region. In the northern parts of the country, such light rains are likely over southern and central parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed; several isolated areas in Togdheer region; Xudun and Caynabo districts in Sool region; central border areas of Ceel Afweyne and Ceerigaabo districts, northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts in Sanaag region, areas in southern Bossaso district and northeastern parts of Iskushuban district in Bari region. Similarly lighter rains are also likely over the border areas between Garowe and Eyl districts in Nugaal region. Dry conditions are expected over the entire Awdal region and several areas in Gedo, Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, Mudug, Nugaal and Bari regions. In the northern parts of the country, such dry conditions are likely over Berbera district and the northern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed; northern parts of Ceel Afweyne district, northwestern, southern and eastern parts of Ceerigaabo district and central and southern parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region; Caluula, Qandala, Qardho, and Bandarbeyla districts and southern parts of Iskushuban district and northern parts of Bossaso district in Bari region.

Light rainfall is predicted over the southern regions and some isolated areas in the north with dry conditions expected over most parts of Somalia during the forecast period. The spatial patterns of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected in the southern regions including: the eastern and coastal parts of both Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts, eastern and southern parts of Afmadow district, and the entire Jamaame district in Lower Juba region; Jilib district and Buáale district in the Middle Juba region; Diinsoor district and northern border areas of Buur Hakaba and Baydhaba districts in Bay region; Sablaale district and the entire coastal parts of Lower Shabelle region, and areas around Mogadishu in Banadir region. In the northern part of the country, similarly light rains are likely over southern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed, the northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts over Sanaag region and areas bordering the three districts of Qandala, Iskushuban and Caluula in Bari region. Localized light rains in other parts of the country are as shown in the map. Dry conditions are expected over the rest of the country especially the entire Awdal region, many parts of Gedo, Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, Mudug, Nugaal, Sool and Bari regions, northern Woqooyi Galbeed region and southern parts of Sanaag region.

Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected the southern regions including: Middle Juba region, the eastern and coastal parts of Lower Juba region, coastal parts of Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions, south and central parts of Bay region, some areas in eastern parts of Gedo region, and coastal parts of Galgaduud region and Ceel Dheer district in Mudug region. In the northern part of the country, similarly light rains are likely over southern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed, the northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts over Sanaag region and areas bordering Iskushuban and Caluula distrcits in Bari region. Dry conditions are expected over the rest of the country..

According to the weekly forecast, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over several areas in central and northwestern parts of Somalia with light rains over southern and northeastern parts during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Very heavy rainfall of more than 150 mm is likely to be observed over Sablaale and Baraawe districts in Lower Shabelle Region; western parts of Ceel Buur district and central parts of Dhuusamarreeb district in Galgaduud Region; Xarardheere district, northern parts of Hobyo district, eastern parts of Gaalkacyo district and western parts of Jariiban district in Mudug region. Rains of similar amounts are also predicted over Sheikh district in the northern part of Togdheer region and the northern border between Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed. Very heavy rains which may exceed 200 mm are expected over the northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over several areas in Mudug and Galgaduud regions; central parts of Hiraan region, the border between Afmadow, Kismaayo and Jamaame districts in Lower Juba region; Jilib district in Middle Juba region; coastal areas of Lower Shabelle region, the central areas of Adan Yabaal district and the border between Balcad and Cadale districts in Middle Shabelle region. Rainfall of similar amounts is likely over the northern part of Togdheer region; the northern border between Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed; southern parts of Awdal region; western parts of Ceel Afweyn and northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is predicted over several areas in Nugaal region, central and northern parts of Awdal region, central and southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region, northern and southern parts of Togdheer region, central and western parts of Sanaag region, central and northern parts of Sool region, and some areas in the central parts of Bari region. Comparatively moderate rainfall is also expected over Galdogob district, western parts of Gaalkacyo district, northern parts of Jariiban district and western parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region, eastern parts of Galgaduud region, central and northern parts of Hiraan region, Balcad , Cadale and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region, near-coastal parts of the entire Lower Shabelle region, Buáale district in Middle Juba and Kismaayo, Jilib and eastern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several areas in Bari region, eastern parts of Sanaag region, northern parts of both Woqooyi and Awdal regions, Bay region, central and eastern parts of Bakool region, southwestern parts of Hiraan region and its entire border with Middle Shabelle region, Wanla Weyn in Lower Shabelle region. In the south, similar light rains are expected over western Afmadow in Lower Juba, Saakow in Middle Juba region, northern Bardheere in Gedo region. Dry conditions are expected in the southwestern parts of the country particularly Gedo region, Waajid, Ran Dhuure, western parts of Ceel Barde and southern parts of Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region, and the coastal areas of Bari region. Moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C are expected over several areas in the southern and northern parts of the country. Temperatures as low as 20°C are likely over some areas in the southern parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions, Sheikh district in northern Togdheer region and Ceerigaabo in Sanaag region. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°C are expected in the central regions and some parts in the south and northern parts of the country.

Moderate to heavy rainfall expected over isolated parts of northern Somalia with light rains over central and dry conditions over southwestern parts of the country during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Very heavy rainfall of between 150 m and 200 mm is likely over central and northern parts of Awdal region, southern parts of Ceerigaabo district and western parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region, northern parts of Caynabo district in Sool region, Buuhoodle district in Togdheer region, and central parts of Bari region. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is anticipated over several areas in Awdal region; northern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeiya districts in Woqooyi Galbeed; northern and southern parts of Togdheer region; several areas in Sool region; several areas in Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region; northern parts of Qardho district, western parts of Iskushuban district, southern parts of Qandala district and southwestern parts of Caluula district in Bari region; central Garowe district, southern Eyl district and southern parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal region; and Galdogob district in Mudug region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is likely over southern Hargeisa in Woqooyi Galbeed region; Owdweyne in Togdheer region; northern parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region; Caluula district and southern parts of Qardho district in Bari region; northern parts of both Garowe and Eyl district and western parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal region; Jariiban and Garowe districts and southern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region; and northern parts of Cabudwaaq in Galgaduud region. Similar moderate rainfall is likely over several areas in Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle regions. SOMALIA WEEKLY WEATHER FORECAST Valid From 24th to 30th May 2023 Moderate to heavy rainfall expected over isolated parts of northern Somalia with light rains over central and dry conditions over southwestern parts of the country. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected over several areas in Lower Juba region, Middel Juba region, Bay region, eastern parts of Bakool region, Hiraan region, Galgaduud region, Hobyo district in Mudug region, and the coastal areas of Bari region and Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Dry conditions are expected in the southwestern parts of the country particularly over Gedo region, Ran Dhuure and Waajid districts and southern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region, and western parts of Saakow district in Middel Juba region. Moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C are expected over several areas in the southern and northern parts of the country. Temperatures as low as 20°C are likely over some areas in the southern parts of Awdal region, southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region, Sheikh district in northern Togdheer region, several areas in central Sanaag region (Ceerigaabo) and northern parts of Qandala district in Bari region. The coldest conditions (16°C to 20°C) are forecast over Erigavo in Sanaag region. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°C are expected in in Hiraan, Galgaduud, mudug, and the coastal areas in the northern part of the country. Similar hot conditions are also likely over Dollow and Luuq districts in Gedo region.

There is a High Risk of Flooding along the Shabelle River at Belet Weyne Moderate rains received in Shabelle River catchment in the Ethiopian highlands and light rains observed in the areas around the Ethiopian borderhave sustained a steady rise in levels along Shabelle River. In the last four days, 40.5 mm of cumulative rainfall has been received at Belet Weyne; 22 mm on 5th, 8.5 mm on 6th and 10 mm on 8th May 2023. The river levels at Belet Weyne steadily increased from 6.38m on 26th April to 7.90m as reported today (8th May 2023). Today’s level is 60 cm above the high flood risk level (7.30 m) and just 40 cm below the bank full (8.30m) threshold. However, at 6.12 m and 3.75 m, the levels at Bulo Burti and Jowhar are 38 cm and 1.25 m below their moderate flood risk thresholds. Since 2nd May 2023 when the high flood risk level was reached at Belet Weyne, any increment in run off occasioned by the moderate rains across the Ethiopian border can potentially lead to river flooding. The information coming from the field indicates that the river flow is hitting the deck of two bridges in Belet Weyne with very high likelihood of river overflowing the banks and causing flooding that might affect Belet Weyne town and its surrounding areas. The Hirshabelle State, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation is reported to be distributing pre-positioned sandbags to the vulnerable sites which have begun seeping the water into the town. Although these efforts may mitigate the effects of the flooding, population living in Belet Weyne town and its surrounding areas must still take precautionary measures. The rainfall forecast for the next three days (8th – 10th May) indicates light cumulative rain of about 10 mm over Belet Weyne and of about 20 mm over its catchment in the Ethiopian Highlands. Although there is high risk of flooding along Shabelle River at Belet Weyne currently, river levels are expected to stabilize to below moderate flood risk levels in the coming days given the above light to moderate forecast rainfall conditions.