Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 22 May 2024

Rainfall Forecast
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According to ICPAC, during the week between 21 and 28 May 2024, dry conditions and light rainfall is expected in most inland parts of the country with chances of moderate rains over coastal parts of the southern regions. These forecast coastal rains seem to be driven by the warming in the Indian Ocean. As the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts further north, its impact on the Gu rains across the country begins to diminish ushering in Hagaa season. However, given that today’s Madden Julian Oscillation’s (MJO) 3-day forecast position is associated with better skill and reliability, there is still some likelihood of moderate rains before the end of the month. Day-to-day monitoring is therefore advised. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) is as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most coastal parts of Somalia including; Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed region; northern parts of Ceel Afweyn, Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts in Sanaag region; Bossaso, Qandala, Banderbeyla, Caluula and Iskushuban districts in Bari region; Eyl district in Nugaal region; Jariiban, Xarardheere and Hobyo districts in Mudug region; Ceel Dheer in Galgaduud region; Adan Yabaal, Cadale and Balcad districts in Middle Shabelle region; Afgooye, Qoryooley, Kurtunwaarey and Sablaale districts in Lower Shabelle region; Mogadishu in Banadir region; Jilib district in Middle Juba region; Jamaame, Kismayo and Badhaadhe districts in Lower Juba region. Similarly, other inland districts that are likely to receive light rainfall include Hargeisa and Gebiley districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region; Odweyne district in Togdheer region; Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region; Tayeeglow district in Bakool region; Baydhaba and Qansax Dheere districts in Bay region; and Afmadow district in Lower Juba region. Dry conditions (including rainfall less than 1 mm) are likely in most areas of Awdal and Sool regions; Burao district in Togdheer region; southern parts of Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigaabo districts in Sanaag region; Qardho district in Bari region; Garowe district in Nugaal region; western parts of Burtinle distric in Nugaal region; Gaalkacyo and Galdogob districts in Mudug region; Caabudwaaq and western parts of Cadaado district in Galgaduud region; Ceel Barde, Xudur, Rab Dhuure and Waajid districts in Bakool region; Doolow, Belet Xaawo and Ceel Waaq districts in Gedo region; and Caluula district in Bari region. Tropical Storm Ialy Advisory Tropical Storm Ialy (Map 2) started off as a Disturbance on 14 May 2024 growing into a Moderate Tropical Storm on 16 May and into a Severe Tropical Storm on 19 May. It is forecast to reduce in intensity in the next 24 hours as it approaches the Equator to just a normal low-pressure system without making landfall in any part of the East African coastline. However, the area of influence may stretch towards the Equator resulting in strong surface wind, large ocean waves and moderate rainfall over the coastal and nearby inland areas of Badhaade, Kismaayo and Jilib Districts.
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Date of publication: 
May, 2024