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Somalia Flood Advisory for Juba and Shabelle Rivers - Issued 29 October 2023

Juba River: High Risk of Riverine Flooding at Dollow, Luuq, and Bardheere and High Risk of Flash Flooding in Gedo region Shabelle River: High Risk of Flash Flooding in Hiraan, Bay and Bakool Regions and Moderate Risk of Riverine Flooding at Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti and Jowhar Juba River Catchment: Following the moderate to heavy rains, significant fluctuations in water levels have been observed along the Juba River since Wednesday 25th November 2023 when SWALIM issued its weekly bulletin. Today’s (29th October 2023) water levels represent an increase from 3.78 m to 5.46 m at Dollow, an increase from 4.58 m to 6.20 m at Luuq, an increase from 7.10 m to 9.00 m at Bardheere, and a slight decrease 7.40 m to 7.00 m at Bualle. The rains over Bardheere have particularly been heavy with 110.0 mm received on 28th and 86.0 mm received today (29th November 2023) with flash flooding incidences reported. The high flood risk levels have subsequently been surpassed by 46 cm, 20 cm and 80 cm at Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere, respectively. The implication is that the water levels are now just 54 cm, 80 cm and 140 cm below the bankful levels at Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere, respectively. The runoff from the forecast moderate rains over its catchment in the next 24 hours accumulating to about 100 mm in the next three days around the central parts of Gedo region, are likely to sustain the river level rise. The large volume of water upstream is likely to also lead to a rise in the water levels at Bualle to high risk level. There is therefore a high risk of riverine flooding along the entire stretch of Juba River particularly at Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere. There is also a high risk of flash flooding in Gedo region particularly areas bordering Kenya. Shabelle River Catchment:Fluctuations in water levels have also been observed along the Shabelle River. Today’s (29th October 2023) water levels represent an increase from 6.22 m to 6.40 m at Beletweyne, an increase from 5.48 m to 5.76 m at Bulo Burte, and a slight decrease from 4.28 m to 4.20 m at Jowhar. These fluctuations mean that water levels are now just 10 cm, 74 cm and 80 cm below moderate flood risk levels at Beletweyne, Bulo Burte and Jowhar, respectively. Although moderate rains received in Hirshabelle have not been at stations near the main river channel, the runoff from the forecast heavy rains over its catchment in the 24 hours accumulating to over 10 mm in the next three days in some areas in Hiraan, are likely to lead to a sharp rise in the river levels. Similarly heavy rains are likely in some areas in Bakool and Bay region. There is therefore a high risk of flash flooding in low lying and other vulnerable areas in densely populated areas in Hiraan, Bakool and Bay region. There is moderate risk of riverine flooding along the entire stretch of Shabelle River worsening to high risk after three days.

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Flood Alert

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 18 October 2023

Moderate to heavy rains expected over central and southwestern areas of the country during the coming week. The rains over Gedo and Bakool are likely to be observed in the first part of the forecasting period. The spatiotemporal distribution of the forecast rains is as below. Heavy rainfall of above 100 mm is expected over Bakool, central parts of Gedo, southern parts of Hiraan and isolated areas in northern Galgaduud, localized areas in Galkayo in Mudug and southern parts of Sool. The rainfall over Ceel waaq in Gedo, Tayeeglow in Bakool, western parts of Bulo Burti in Hiraan and western parts of Ceel dheer in Galgaduud is likely to exceed 150 mm. Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is expected in Ceel Waaq and Garbahaarey districts in Gedo region, Baydhaba ditricts in Bay, Xudun, Ceel Barde, Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region, western parts of Bulo Burti district, northern parts of BeletWeyne district and western parts Jalalaqsi district in Hiraan. In the central parts of the country, rains of similar amounts are expected over Dhuusamareeb district and southern parts of Cadaado districts in Galgaduud region, Galkayo district, western part of Jariiban district and several isolated areas in Mudug region. Towards the north, comparatively moderate rainfall is also expected over Burtinle district in Nuugal region, southern parts of Qardho district in Bari region, central parts of Taleex districts in Sool region, southern parts of Las Anod, Buuhoodle district in Togheer, Ceel Afweyn town and it’s border areas with Erigavo in Sanaag region. Light rainfall of below 50 mm is anticipated over the rest of the country with the exception of noncoastal areas of Awdal region, Hargeisa and Gebiley districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region, western parts of Bari region particularly over Bosasso district.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Higher Ground for Flood Evacuation in Afgooye District

Somalia grapples with the looming impacts of an impending El Niño, exacerbating the ongoing climate change challenges. Recurrent riverine and flash floods, particularly in urban centers are of significant concern. Urgent action is needed to prepare for and mitigate the forthcoming El Niño floods, aiming to safeguard lives and mitigate economic losses. Key to this strategy is proactive flood management, involving timely evacuations to higher ground. Identifying suitable elevated areas serves a dual purpose, ensuring safety and facilitating aid delivery. In this regard a rigorous GIS & RS methodology by SWALIM considered nine crucial factors, such as historical flood extent, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, drainage density, strategic boreholes, settlements, land cover, and roads, to isolate higher grounds suitable for evacuation. The resulting maps show safe areas for evacuation in case of flooding, while exercising discretion considering factors like proximity to schools, healthcare facilities, pest prevalence and any other unforeseen factors

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Map

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Deyr 2023 Climate Outlook and its Implication on Livelihoods and Programming

Given the recent evolution of warmer than average Sea- Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, most global climate models have confirmed the presence and persistence of El Niño conditions throughout the October - December 2023 season. Moreover, similar warming of ocean waters near the East African coastline, together with cooling down of the waters near the western Australian coastline, which technically defines a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is expected to lead to above normal rains over most parts of East Africa. Somalia’s Deyr (October - December) “short rains” season is associated with the somewhat-faster southward movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which dictates much of the country’s climate. According to ICPAC, the climate outlook for the “Deyr Short Rains’’ season indicates an exceptionally high likelihood (85 %) of enhanced rainfall over southern parts of the country encompassing the catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers where up to 10 consecutive rainy days are probable. Upstream of the river catchments across the Ethiopian border, 4 - 6 consecutive rainy days are expected with higher likelihood of cumulative amounts exceeding 150 mm. In terms of associated risks, the enhanced amounts, more so consecutive rainy days, over Juba and Shabelle River catchments within the country and across the Ethiopian border will likely lead to flooding as from the third week of October. However, the forecast dry conditions over the southern parts of Somalia where the two river catchments lie in the month of September offer some lead time for intervention measures to be put in place to mitigate the potential flood risks. The forecast dry conditions over the agricultural zones in the southern parts of the country in the month of September are also opportune for land preparation. The subsequent rains will likely lead to substantial recharge of water sources, replenished water catchment levels, and improved soil moisture conditions. These will create favorable conditions for grass regeneration, offering fodder for the livestock, and timely crop planting across the agro-pastoral livelihoods.

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Rainfall Outlook

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Higher Ground for Flood Evacuation in BeletWeyne and Jowhar Districts

Somalia grapples with the looming impacts of an impending El Niño, exacerbating the ongoing climate change challenges. Recurrent riverine and flash floods, particularly in urban centers like Beletweyne and Jowhar, are of significant concern. Urgent action is needed to prepare for and mitigate the forthcoming El Niño floods, aiming to safeguard lives and mitigate economic losses. Key to this strategy is proactive flood management, involving timely evacuations to higher ground. Identifying suitable elevated areas serves a dual purpose, ensuring safety and facilitating aid delivery. In this regard a rigorous GIS & RS methodology by SWALIM considered nine crucial factors, such as historical flood extent, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, drainage density, strategic boreholes, settlements, land cover, and roads, to isolate higher grounds suitable for evacuation. The resulting maps show safe areas for evacuation in case of flooding, while exercising discretion considering factors like proximity to schools, healthcare facilities, pest prevalence and any other unforeseen factors.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 27 September 2023

Rainfall Forecast: There is agreement among several forecast products that light to moderate rains of up to 100 mm is expected over the southwest state and central parts of the country, with some forecasting products anticipating more intense rains. The spatial variation of the consensus-based rainfall forecast is follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is expected over isolated areas in Galgaduud, Mudug and Hiraan regions. Specifically, such rains are likely over Ceel Buur district and southern parts of Cabudwaaq district in Galgaduud region, northern parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiran region, and northern parts of Jariiban district in Mudug region. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is anticipated over Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, Mudug, and Nugal regions. Rains of such intensity are also possible over northern parts of Bay region, southern parts of Bari region, and isolated areas in Sool, Togdheer and Woqqoyi Galbeed regions. Dry conditions are likely in extensive areas in the southern and northern parts of the country. In the north such dry conditions are expected over Awdal region, northeastern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region, Sanaag and Bari regions. In the south, such dry conditions are likely over Gedo region, coastal parts of Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba, and Lower Juba regions. However, there are chances of cloudiness leading up to light rains over some of these areas.

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Rainfall Forecast

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SWALIM

Gu 2023 Rainfall Performance Review, Hagaa Outlook and Implications on Livelihoods

Review of the 2023 March-April-May (MAM) seasonal rainfall has demonstrated three key points: First, there was an early transition into the Gu (April-May-June) long rains season in Somalia this year. Secondly, above Long Term Mean (LTM) rainfall was received over Puntland and Somaliland and below LTM over South and Central Somalia. Thirdly, the observed rainfall was more in agreement with the forecast over South and Central Somalia and less over Somaliland. The early onset of the generally above-LTAM MAM rainfall led to substantial recharge of water sources, replenished water catchment levels, improved soil moisture conditions, creating favorable conditions for pasture regeneration, offering first line fodder for the livestock. It also favored land preparation and timely crop and fodder planting across the agro-pastoral livelihoods. However, the exceptionally heavy rains over both Shabelle and Juba River catchments in Ethiopian Highlands and the already-soaked soil conditions over the catchments within Somalia led to excessive overbank spillage resulting to devastating floods at Belet Weyne from 9th May, at Bulo Burti from 25th May and at Jalalaqsi from 26th May 2023. Flash floods occassioned by localised rains also occured in several places within Somalia like Bardheere from 23rd March 2023. The floods led to extensive damage to farmlands with earlier-grown crop and fodder and the grassland plains with devastating implications. Nonetheless, the MAM rains generally led to improved food security situation across the country particularly in the case of Somaliland where the observed rains were above LTM. The wetter than average projected rainfall conditions are likely to at least slow the loss of soil moisture and support agricultural and livestock productivity over South and Central Somalia over which below LTM Gu rains were observed. This bulletin presents both qualitative and quantitative review of the temporal and spatial variation of observed-, and verification of the forecast Gu rainfall season.

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Rainfall Performance

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 07 June 2023

Moderate rainfall expected over southern coastal regions with light rains predicted over most other parts of Somalia during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial distribution of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is expected over the areas next to the coastline in the southern part of the country. These areas include the eastern and coastal parts of both Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts, eastern and southern parts of Afmadow district, and the entire Jamaame district in Lower Juba region. Similarly, moderate rains are also likely over Jilib district and the isolated areas in the southern part of Buále district in the Middle Juba region and over several areas in southern and western parts of both Sablaale and Baraawe districts in Lower Shabelle region. Some isolated areas in the north particularly over Eerigavo in Sanaag region are also likely to receive moderate rains. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected over several areas in Afmadow district and the western parts of Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region; Saakow district and northern parts of Buáale district in Middle Juba region; and southern and eastern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region. Similar rains are likely over Qoryoley, Kurtunwaarey, Marka, Afgooye and Wanla Weyne districts in Lower Shabelle region; several areas in Middle Shabelle and Bay regions; non-coastal areas of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region; and non-coastal areas of both Xaradheere district and southern Hobyo district in Mudug region. In the northern parts of the country, such light rains are likely over southern and central parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed; several isolated areas in Togdheer region; Xudun and Caynabo districts in Sool region; central border areas of Ceel Afweyne and Ceerigaabo districts, northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts in Sanaag region, areas in southern Bossaso district and northeastern parts of Iskushuban district in Bari region. Similarly lighter rains are also likely over the border areas between Garowe and Eyl districts in Nugaal region. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several areas in Afmadow district and the western parts of Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region; Saakow district and northern parts of Buáale district in Middle Juba region; and southern and eastern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region. Similar rains are likely over Qoryoley, Kurtunwaarey, Marka, Afgooye and Wanla Weyne districts in Lower Shabelle region; several areas in Middle Shabelle and Bay regions; non-coastal areas of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region; and non-coastal areas of both Xaradheere district and southern Hobyo district in Mudug region. In the northern parts of the country, such light rains are likely over southern and central parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed; several isolated areas in Togdheer region; Xudun and Caynabo districts in Sool region; central border areas of Ceel Afweyne and Ceerigaabo districts, northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts in Sanaag region, areas in southern Bossaso district and northeastern parts of Iskushuban district in Bari region. Similarly lighter rains are also likely over the border areas between Garowe and Eyl districts in Nugaal region. Dry conditions are expected over the entire Awdal region and several areas in Gedo, Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, Mudug, Nugaal and Bari regions. In the northern parts of the country, such dry conditions are likely over Berbera district and the northern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed; northern parts of Ceel Afweyne district, northwestern, southern and eastern parts of Ceerigaabo district and central and southern parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region; Caluula, Qandala, Qardho, and Bandarbeyla districts and southern parts of Iskushuban district and northern parts of Bossaso district in Bari region.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 14 June 2023

Light rainfall is predicted over the southern regions and some isolated areas in the north with dry conditions expected over most parts of Somalia during the forecast period. The spatial patterns of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected in the southern regions including: the eastern and coastal parts of both Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts, eastern and southern parts of Afmadow district, and the entire Jamaame district in Lower Juba region; Jilib district and Buáale district in the Middle Juba region; Diinsoor district and northern border areas of Buur Hakaba and Baydhaba districts in Bay region; Sablaale district and the entire coastal parts of Lower Shabelle region, and areas around Mogadishu in Banadir region. In the northern part of the country, similarly light rains are likely over southern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed, the northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts over Sanaag region and areas bordering the three districts of Qandala, Iskushuban and Caluula in Bari region. Localized light rains in other parts of the country are as shown in the map. Dry conditions are expected over the rest of the country especially the entire Awdal region, many parts of Gedo, Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, Mudug, Nugaal, Sool and Bari regions, northern Woqooyi Galbeed region and southern parts of Sanaag region.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 21 June 2023

Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected the southern regions including: Middle Juba region, the eastern and coastal parts of Lower Juba region, coastal parts of Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions, south and central parts of Bay region, some areas in eastern parts of Gedo region, and coastal parts of Galgaduud region and Ceel Dheer district in Mudug region. In the northern part of the country, similarly light rains are likely over southern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed, the northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts over Sanaag region and areas bordering Iskushuban and Caluula distrcits in Bari region. Dry conditions are expected over the rest of the country..

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