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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued: 02 November 2020

There has been a significant decline of rainfall amounts across Somalia over the last week. In the north western regions of Awdal, Wooqoyi Galbeed and Toghdheer, a prolonged dry period has been observed since the last week of September 2020. Most stations in these regions recorded little or no rainfall during the month of October 2020. Similarly, parts of Puntland have not received any rains since the first week of October. There also remains a significant rainfall deficit in most parts of the southern regions and especially the Jubas and Lower Shabelle. The last week saw a reduction of river levels along the Shabelle River. Currently, levels are within normal in Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti districts while the mid and lower reaches are still at high levels. In Agfooye, the levels are at full capacity and most parts of the riverine areas remain inundated with massive displacement being reported in the area. River levels along the Juba increased sharply in the last one week reaching alarming levels in Bardheere. This was due to heavy rains in the upper reaches of the Ethiopian side which also led to river flooding in Dollow. The last three days have however seen a reduction of the levels along the channel. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week suggests a significant reduction of rainfall amounts across the country with light rains along the southern coastal areas. Little or no rainfall is foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands. This will subsequently lead to a decrease in river levels especially along the Shabelle river. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, flooding is likely to persist in Lower Shabelle riverine areas. There is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba River. There is however a great concern of moisture deficits across the country especially in the rain fed agricultural areas of the southern regions. Drought conditions are foreseen if the trend continues.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued 12 November 2020

There has been a significant decline of rainfall amounts across Somalia over the last week. In the north western regions of Awdal, Wooqoyi Galbeed and Toghdheer, a prolonged dry period has been observed since the last week of September 2020. Most stations in these regions recorded little or no rainfall during the month of October 2020. Similarly, parts of Puntland have not received any rains since the first week of October. There also remains a significant rainfall deficit in most parts of the southern regions and especially the Jubas and Lower Shabelle. The last week saw a reduction of river levels along the Shabelle River. Currently, levels are within normal in Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti districts while the mid and lower reaches are still at high levels. In Agfooye, the levels are at full capacity and most parts of the riverine areas remain inundated with massive displacement being reported in the area. River levels along the Juba increased sharply in the last one week reaching alarming levels in Bardheere. This was due to heavy rains in the upper reaches of the Ethiopian side which also led to river flooding in Dollow. The last three days have however seen a reduction of the levels along the channel. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week suggests a significant reduction of rainfall amounts across the country with light rains along the southern coastal areas. Little or no rainfall is foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands. This will subsequently lead to a decrease in river levels especially along the Shabelle river. Given the rainfall forecast, No risk of flooding is foreseen along the Juba and Shabelle rivers. There is however a great concern of moisture deficits across the country especially in the rain fed agricultural areas of the southern regions. Drought conditions are foreseen if the trend continues.

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Tropical Storm Update - Issued: 24 November 2020

Tropical Storm GATI weakened leaving a trail of destruction in parts of Bari and Sanaag regions The tropical storm GATI has weakened further and is moving westwards with a speed of 7KPH. It is expected to dissipate in the next 12 hours. The storm left behind a significant physical and economic damage especially in Bari region. More than 700 houses were destroyed, several boats and fishing gears damaged and loss of a large number of livestock. This has led to loss of livelihood for most families and may take time and huge financial input to replace the loss. There was a reduction of rainfall amounts and wind speeds in the last 24 hours in many areas along the storm path. This trend is expected to continue as the storm gets weaker and the situation will stabilize thereafter. The sea conditions are still rough over the coastal areas of Puntland and Somaliland and fishermen are advised not to venture into fishing operations for today. The storm impacts will continue to be experienced today in Sanaag and Woqooyi Galbeed coastal areas but with lesser magnitude compared to what was experienced Bari in the last two days. The rainfall forecast for Somaliland and Puntland is calling for moderate rains in the next couple of days and a reduction towards the end of the week. The Ethiopian highland and southern parts of the country are also expected to experience moderate to heavy rains in the course of the week. Given the three days rainfall forecast, flash floods may occur in Toghdheer, Sool, Galgaduud and Mudug regions within the areas neighboring Ethiopia.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued: 19 October 2020

The Deyr 2020 rainy season (Sept/Oct—Dec) continued to spread in the north eastern parts of Somalia and a few places in the south during the last two weeks. A dry period was observed in Somaliland which has not recorded any rains since the beginning of the month. Low to moderate rains were observed in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period. There was a fluctuation of river along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Currently, levels are significantly above normal along the Shabelle. Today’s River level at Belet Weyne is 7.58m which has surpassed the high risk level of flooding. Similarly, the levels are high in the mid and lower reaches of the river. Todays river level at Jowhar is 5. 25m which is almost at bank-ful. In Agfooye, the levels are at full capacity and most parts of the riverine areas remain inundated. A recent ground survey by SWALIM indicates that there are several open and weak river embankments in Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye districts with some ranging from 500m to 1,000m wide. Some villages continue to be under water since August 2020. River levels are within normal along the Juba. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates moderate to heavy rains in central and parts of southern regions including, Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan and Bakool regions. No rains are expected along the Juba and in Somaliland during the forecast period. The Ethiopian highlands whose soil moisture is already saturated due to heavy rains since July 2020 will see an increase of rainfall amounts this week. This will subsequently lead to a further increase in river levels especially along the Shabelle river. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle while there is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba River. There is a also a high risk of flash floods in the built up low lying areas especially in Mudug and Galgaduud regions

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued: 26 October 2020

The Deyr 2020 rainy season (Sept/Oct—Dec) continued to spread in a few places during the last week. A dry period was observed in greater parts of Somaliland which has not recorded any rains since the beginning of the month. Light to moderate rains were observed in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period. The last few days saw a reduction of river levels along the Shabelle. Currently, levels are within normal in Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti districts while the mid and lower reaches are still at high levels. Today’s River level at Belet Weyne is 5.25m, a drastic drop from last week; while in Jowhar the level is 5.20m, which is almost at bank-ful. In Agfooye, the levels are at full capacity and most parts of the riverine areas remain inundated. A recent ground survey by SWALIM indicates that there are several open and weak river embankments in Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye districts with some ranging from 500m to 1,000m wide. Some villages continue to be under water since August 2020. River levels along the Juba increased slightly during the last few days due to moderate rains in the Ethiopian highlands. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates moderate to heavy rains in many areas across the country, with minimal rains in the western parts of Somaliland and south of Bari region in Puntland. The Ethiopian highlands whose soil moisture is already saturated due to heavy rains since July 2020 will see an increase of rainfall amounts this week. This will subsequently lead to a further increase in river levels especially along the Shabelle river. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the lower reaches of Shabelle while along the Juba River there is Moderate Risk of flooding foreseen . There is a also a High Risk of flash floods in the built up low lying areas especially in Bay and Bakool regions

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued: 29 October 2020

Many places received light to moderate rains across Somalia in the last two days as the Deyr rainy season continued to spread albeit with a delay in some areas. Hiraan, Bakool and Bay regions in the south recorded heavy rains of up to 60mm within 24 hours. Light to moderate rains were observed in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period. River levels are within normal in Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti districts while the mid and lower reaches are still at high levels. Today’s River level at Belet Weyne is 5.00m while Jowhar is 5.25m which is almost at bank-ful. In Agfooye, the levels are at full capacity and most parts of the riverine areas remain inundated. A recent ground survey by SWALIM indicates that there are several open and weak river embankments in Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye districts with some ranging from 500m to 1,000m wide. Some villages continue to be under water since August 2020. River levels along the Juba increased slightly during the last few days due to moderate rains in the Ethiopian highlands. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates moderate to heavy rains in many areas across the country. In the western parts of Somaliland and south of Bari region in Puntland the rains will be less. The Ethiopian highlands whose soil moisture is already saturated due to heavy rains since July 2020 will see an increase of rainfall amounts this week. This will subsequently lead to a further increase in river levels especially along the Shabelle river. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the lower reaches of Shabelle while along the Juba River there is Moderate Risk of flooding foreseen . There is a also a High Risk of flash floods in the built up low lying areas especially in Galgaduud, Mudug, Bay and Bakool regions

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued: 02 October 2020

Moderate to heavy rains are foreseen in parts of Puntland and central regions within this week. In particular, Hiraan, Bakool, Galgaduud, Mudug, Nugaal and southern parts of Sool region will receive significant rainfall amounts during the forecast period. The Ethiopian highland will also receive moderate to heavy rains during the same period. Heavy storms are expected between 03 and 05 October in Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud and Hiraan regions. This is likely to lead to flash floods the areas. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle while there is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba River. There is a also a high risk of flash floods in the built up low lying areas of central regions, Bakool, Nugaal and Sool.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued: 18 September 2020

The Deyr 2020 rainy season (Sept/Oct—Dec) is expected to start in late September in the northern parts and mid October in the southern areas. However, some parts of the northern regions have been receiving rains since the first week of this month. On 16 and 17 September, heavy rains that led to flash floods and destruction of properties in KarKar district of Puntland were reported. About 300 people were affected by the flash floods in Duudhayo village. There was reduction of rainfall amounts within the Ethiopian highlands over the last week. This subsequently led to a slight reduction of river flow along the Shabelle River. However, river levels are still very high along the entire channel and flooding continue to be reported in parts of the riverine areas. In Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti, the river levels are still above the high flood risk level to date. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates moderate rains in Bari and Sanaag regions of Puntland and the coastal areas of Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba regions. Heavy rains are foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands during the week in forecast. This may lead to an increase of river levels along the Shabelle river thus increasing the risk of flooding especially in Hiraan region. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle while there is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba River.

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Somalia Rainfall Outlook for the 2020 Deyr Season Issued: 03 September 2020

Deyr (Sep/Oct-Dec) season rainfall is usually of shorter duration and less amount and intensity compared to Gu (April-June) season rainfall. However, they are beneficial in supporting seasonal agricultural activities and replenishing water and pasture resources. Generally, Deyr season starts in late September and ends in early December, but this varies from place to place across the country, with the northern regions receiving rainfall much earlier than southern regions. According to the recently issued Seasonal Climate Forecast issued by IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), the 2020 Deyr rains in Somalia are likely to be below normal to near normal with a 45 percent chance of experiencing below normal rains and a 30 chance of near normal rains in Somaliland, central and southern regions of the country. Similarly, the upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in neighboring Ethiopia are also expected to record below normal to near normal rainfall during the 2020 Deyr season ( Map 1. Most parts of Puntland have equal chances of (35%) of experiencing normal or above normal rains during the season. Further, the outlook predicts a delayed start of the season with warmer than normal temperatures.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast - Issued: 24 September 2020

The early rains received in northern parts of Somalia since the first week of September continued to spread across the region over the last one week, marking an early start of the Deyr 2020 rainy season. Normally, the Sept/Oct—Dec rainy season is expected to start in late September in the northern parts and mid October in the southern areas of the country. The Ethiopian highlands, which contribute to the Juba and Shabelle river flow, continued to receive moderate rains over the last one week. River levels along the entire Shabelle River remained very high with flooding reported in parts of the riverine areas. In Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti the river levels are still above the high flood risk level to date, while in Jowhar the river is at moderate flood risk level. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates light to moderate rains spreading from the central to the northern parts of the country. Awdal Region will however will remain dry for the next one week. Bakool Region in the south is expected to receive light to moderate rains, while in the Ethiopian highlands there will be moderate to heavy rainfall over the same forecast period. This may lead to an increase of river levels along the Shabelle river thus increasing the risk of flooding especially in Hiraan and Middle Shabelle Regions. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle while there is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba River.

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