According to the NOAA-NCEP GFS rainfall forecast, rainfall during 13–19 May 2026 is expected to be mostly light and localized across Somalia (Figure 4). Light rainfall below 50 mm is likely over localized parts of the Shabelle basin, including sections around Belet Weyne and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region; Jowhar and Balcad districts in Middle Shabelle; Banadir region including Mogadishu; Wanla Weyn, Afgooye, Marka and Qoryooley districts in Lower Shabelle region; Buur Hakaba and Baidoa districts in Bay region; Tayeeglow district in Bakool region; coastal parts of Badhaadhe, Kismaayo, Jamaame and Jilib districts in Lower Juba region; central parts of Dhuusamarreeb district and coastal parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud; central parts of Galkacyo district and coastal parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region. Dry or near-dry conditions are expected over large parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag, Bari, Nugaal, Bakool, Gedo, and Middle Juba regions; inland parts of Lower Juba region particularly Afmadow district; Dinsoor and Qansax Dheere districts in Bay region; Sablaale and Kurtunwaarey districts in Lower Shabelle region; Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region; and most inland parts of both Galgaduud and Mudug regions. The MJO forecast initialized on 11 May 2026 shows the convective signal moving away from the most favourable western Indian Ocean phases during the early part of the forecast period supporting the forecast light localized rainfall