Tropical Storm LUBAN expected to lead to winds of medium strength with moderate rainfall amounts in Bari and Sanaag regions in Somalia. A tropical storm that developed in the northern Indian Ocean is expected to make a land fall in Yemen in 3 to 4 days. The storm poses an immediate threat to the shipping lane that links Somalia and Gulf states. Further, it may affect the coastal areas of Bari and Sanaag regions of Somalia in the next 48 to 72 hours from today (12 October 2018). Moderate rains and winds of low to medium strength will be experienced in areas situated in the coastal areas of Bari and Sanaag regions. The impacts are expected to be of lower magnitude compared to recent tropical storms that have been experienced in this area. However, it is advisable to take the necessary precautions since the winds associated with the tropical storm might lead to destruction of weak structures. Flash floods are also foreseen in these areas. SWALIM and partners are monitoring the situation and will update you accordingly. For more details on tropical storm tracking you can consult: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ or contact swalim@fao.org.

Saadaasha dhawaan uu soosaartay Shirweynaha Saadaasha Cimilada ee Weyn Geeska Afrikada (GHACOF50), oo soo baxday 28 Agoost 2018, waxay tilmaameysa inay dhici karto in roobabka Deyta (Oktoobar- Diseembar) ay noqdaan caadi iyo kuwo sarreeya caadiga guud ahaan Soomaaliya. Si gaar ah, saadaashu waxay muujineysaa in qiyaastii boqolkiiba 35 ay roobabku caadiga ka sarreeyaan gudaha Gobollada Waqooyi Galbeed. Qiyaastaasu waa ka sarreysaa (40%) in kale ee dalka (Jaantuska 1). Guud ahaan, suurtogallada roobabka caadiga ah ilaa kuwa caadiga ka sarreeya waa 75 boqolkiiba dalka oo dhan. Sida laga soo xigtay xog laga helay (GHACOF50), xilliga Deyrta 2018 waxaa la rajeynayaa in ay bilawdaan wax ka hor inta caadi ah oo ay si caadi ah uga joogsadaan qaybo badan oo ka mid ah Soomaaliya balse joogsiga hore waxay u badan tahay isla gobollada waqooyi-galbeed ee dalka. Waxaa sidoo kale jira oo laga yaabaa heerkulku kordha oo ka diirran isku celceliska heerkulka caadiga ah ee Soomaaliya. Celceliska la filayo ee ka korreeya celceliska roobabka Deyrta waxaa la rajeynayaa in ay sii wanaajiyaan daaqa iyo biyaha u helitaanka xoolaha, hagaajinta xaaladda xoolaha iyo taranka iyo fududeynta sii kordhida beerashada dalagyada beeraha gudaha goobaha dalagyada lagu beerto ee Soomaaliya. Dhanka kale, roobab caadi ah ilaa caadi ka sarreeya ayaa sidoo kale laga yaabaa in ay ka da’aan qaybo ka mid ah buuraleyda sare ee Itoobiya kuwaas oo si aad ah uga qayb weyn ka qaadanaya socodka labada webi ee ugu waaweyn Soomaaliya (Jubbooyinka iyo Shabeelle). Natiijo ahaan, waxaa jiri doona khatar kordhaysa oo ah fatahaadaha webiyada Jubba iyo Shabelle. Goobaha hooseeya ee Galgaduud, Mudug, qaybo ka mid ah Nugaal iyo gobollada kale ayaa laga yaabaa inay la kulmaan fatahaado inta lagu jiro xilliga Deyrta soo socda sababtoo ah waxaa ka jira saadaasha roobab culculus. Saamaynta la filayo 1. Beeraha iyo Xoolaha Roobabka aad u kordhaya xilligii Deyrta 2018 waxaa la rajeynayaa in ay kor u qaadaan qoyaanka ciidda, taas oo fursado u abuuraysa in ay aad u kordhaan labada qayb ee dalagyada beeraha iyo koboca waxsoosaarka beeraha iyo shaqooyin ka helidda meelaha dalagyda beeraha ku tiirsan ee dalka. Celceliska la filayo oo ah mid ka badan celceliska roobabka Deyrta ayaa la rajeynayaa inuu sii wanaajiyo daaqa iyo biyo u helitaanka xoolaha taas oo sii wanaajinaysa xaalada xoolaha iyo dhalmada. 2. Deegaanka Waxaa lagugula talinayaa in la hirgeliyo tallaabooyin waxqabad oo lagu ilaaliyo ciidda si loo yareeyo xaaluf deegaameedka sababaya ciid-hallowga, boholaha dillaaca iyo nabaad guurka. Beelaha maxalliga ah waa in sidoo kale lagu dhiirrigeliyo in ay beeraan dhir deegaanka ku habboon iyo sidoo kale calafka xoolaha si loo kordhiyo dhirta iyo geedaha dhulka dedka u ah. 3. Maareynta Musiibada Marka eego roobab culus ee la saadaalinayo inay ku dhacaan dooxooyinka labada webi Jubba iyo Shabeele ee gudaha Soomaaliya iyo meelaha u dhawdhaw buuraleyda sare Itoobiya, ayaa loo badinayaa in ay sabab u noqdaan fatahaado meelaha gebiyada webiga daciifka ah iyo kuwa furan. Waxaa jira dhowr gebiyo wabiga oo furan oo khatar keeni kara xitaa xaaladaha roobabka caadiga ah. Daadad burqanaya ayaa sidoo kale laga filan karaa meelaha daadadka u nugul, ee hooseeya. Dawladda, maamullada degaanka, beelaha wabiyada iyo la-hawlgalayaasha ayaa waxaa lagula talinayaa in ay qaataan tallaabooyin yaraynaya halista fatahaada iyaga oo xiraya goobaha gebiyada webiyada furan ka hor bilawga roobabka bisha Oktoobar. 4. Khayraadka Biyaha Biyaha helitaanka, isticmaalka xoolaha iyo dadka labadaba, ayaa la filayaa inuu horumar sameeyo taas oo ah natiijada saadaasha celceliska oo ka sarreeya celceliska roobabka Deyrta. Tani waxay abuureysaa fursado ah qabsashada biyaha iyo u kaydinta isticmaalka mustaqbalka ee beelaha degaanka. Sidaa darted, beelaha waxaa lagu dhiirigelinayaa in ay kordhiyaan tallaabooyinka biyo qabsashada iyo kaydinta iyaga oo garabsanaya maamullada degaanka, xukuumadda iyo la-hawlgalayaasha.

A tropical storm named ONE has been developing in the northern Indian Ocean and is expected to affect most parts of northern regions in Somaliland and Puntland in the next 24 to 48 hours. The storm is expected to affect coastal areas of Puntland in the next 24hours and spread further inland towards Somaliland and the central areas with time. Strong winds with heavy rains will therefore be experienced in areas situated along the storm path. Therefore, it is advisable to take the necessary precautions since the strong winds associated with the tropical storm might lead to destruction of weak structures. Flash floods are also foreseen in these areas. SWALIM and partners are monitoring the situation and will update you accordingly. For more details on tropical storm tracking you can consult: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ or consult us through swalim@fao.org.

Following a Tropical Cylcone in the gulf of Aden, heavy rains that led to flash floods were experienced in Bari region of Puntland in the last 12 hours. The rains are expected intensify during the next two days in most parts of Puntland and Somaliland with a reduction on 21/05/2018. Flash floods and strong winds will be experienced during this time in these areas. There has been a reduction of rainfall activities within the Juba and Shabelle basins in the last few days and the Ethiopian highland as well. The forecast for coming week is calling for moderate rains in the basins. While river levels have remained high along the Shabelle, there has been a significant decrease of river levels along the Juba in the upper parts.

With the high water levels and over bank spillage in Belt Weyne, River levels at Bulo Burti are fast approaching the high risk threshold. The high water levels are expected to be transmitted to Middle and Lower Shabelle in the next couple of days and this is likely to worsen the flood situation in these areas. Communities residing in the riverine areas of Middle and Lower Shabelle, in particular, are requested to be on the alert for rising river levels and possible overspill. All necessary measures should be taken to preserve life and property in these areas.

Somalia is periodically affected by various forms of natural and manmade hazards. Floods are notably one of the most devastating natural hazards in the country, causing tremendous loss of lives and extensive damage to agriculture, vegetation, human, wild life and local economies. Juba-Shabelle River Basin is the source of the two most significant rivers (Jubba and Shabelle) in the country that provide sufficient water for crop production, livestock and for domestic use (Figure 1). It is widely believed that the alluvial plains of the two rivers to be the breadbasket of Somalia as they have considerable potential for irrigation development. However, floods are a common phenomenon in the riverine areas of the Juba and Shabelle River basin during the two main rainy seasons of Somalia Gu (April to June) and Deyr (October to December). The low-lying areas along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers are usually experienced flooding of various magnitudes. This is caused or amplified by both weather and human related factors. The natural one is due to quantity and frequency of precipitations experienced by the Ethiopian side of the Juba and Shabelle River Basin is far more exceeding than the one occurs in Somalia.

Moderate to heavy rains will continue in the coming week in Somali and within the Ethiopian highlands whose rainfall contribute significantly to the river flow in Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Somaliland and Puntland will record the highest amounts of rainfall given the forecast. Given the current ground situation, high river levels and the rainfall forecast, riverine flooding is expected to continue and spread further especially along the Shabelle River. Flash floods are likely to be experienced in the coastal areas of Puntland (Bari and Nuugal) and central (Mudug and Galgaduud) regions.

The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for moderate to heavy rains in most places across the country as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Following the enhanced rains observed river levels remained high along the two rivers. Belet Weyne in Hiraan region has been at bank full level for the last 14 days and is expected to remain the same for the next couple of days. Many stations along the Juba also reached their highest level in the recent history. Continued heavy rains and high river levels have led to flooding which currently exceeds a 50 year return period flood magnitude.

Rainfall in April 2018 was well above average (higher by 50% or more compared to the long-term average for April) in most parts of Somalia and adjacent areas in Ethiopia. As a result, riverine and flash floods have already caused massive population displacement, damaged housing, property, infrastructure and farm lands in riverine and low-lying areas in central and southern Somalia The overall seasonal rainfall amount and river levels and extent of flooding are likely to be worse than in 2006 but less compared to 1997; however, humanitarian impact is expected to be higher in 2018 given population increases in the affected areas. Flooding can be expected to worsen over the next 2-3 weeks as Gu season rainfall continues; however, forecasts indicate reduced rainfall activity over the next two weeks.

Within the last few days, heavy downpour has been experienced in many parts of the Juba and Shabelle River basins both in Somalia and in the Ethiopian Highlands. Flash floods have been reported in some areas within the basins including Gedo, Bakool and Bay regions. Following the heavy rains, the river  levels have increased drastically in the entire reaches of the two rivers and are a few centimeters to reach the bank full levels at Luuq and Belet Weyne. The rainfall forecast for the next seven days (23 to 29 April, 2018) is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains  within the Ethiopian highlands  and inside Somalia.  Observed river levels along the  Juba and Shabelle Rivers are expected to continue rising further in the coming week following the foreseen heavy rains. There is therefore an immediate high risk of flooding along the two rivers given the current situation. Areas to watch include; Belet Weyne and Jowhar towns (Shabelle) and their environs; where the river levels are currently at full crest, Dollow , Bardheere and Bualle town (Juba) and their environs, Other riverine towns in the Middle and Lower Shabelle regions such as Balcaad and Kurtunwaarey as well as those in Lower Juba. Flash floods in Bay and Bakool regions also cannot be ruled out given the rainfall forecast.