The Gu 2019 rains continued to spread across Somalia over the last few days. Many stations especially in the south have recorded light to moderate rains in the past three days. In the central and northern regions there were scattered rains, while in the Ethiopian highlands moderate to high rains were received over the same period. River levels along Shabelle continued with gradual increase, while the levels along Juba river started to decline after a sharp rise the previous week. Both Shabelle and Juba river levels are currently still below the long term mean for this period of the year. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days (Map 1) indicates light to moderate rains across the entire country, apart from the northern coastal areas where no rains are foreseen. The southern coastal areas are likely to receive moderate to high rainfall in the next three days. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 15 May 2019 shows moderate rains across the country. Along the southern and central coastal areas, and some selected places in Sanaag, Togdheer and Bari regions, the forecast indicates moderate to high rains in the coming week. Moderate to high rains are also foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands (Map 2). As a result, the Juba and Shabelle River levels are expected to slightly increase in the coming week.

The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates light to moderate rains in the coastal areas of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle regions. Moderate to heavy rains of more than 50mm cumulatively are expected in Sool and parts of Nugaal regions in Puntland starting from 29 May 2019 with a moderate risk of flash floods in built up and low lying areas. The rains are expected to spread further in space and intensity as the week progresses with good rains expected in many areas across Somaliland and Puntland towards the end of the week. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands will also receive good rains towards the end of the week. The central regions and large parts of southern regions except Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle will remain dry in the coming week. Insufficient soil moisture is a primary factor limiting crop, forage and pasture growth in Somalia. The temporal distribution of the seasonal rainfall is paramount compared to the total quantity rainfall in the season. The Gu rains of 2019 has seen unreliable short spans of rain storms across the country which are not dependable to the water dependent sectors, the crops and pasture require some rainfall to remain productive. For instance, some stations have recorded only one day of rainfall since the start of the season with some exceeding 50mm in the one day rainfall. Such rainfall is rendered ineffective for crop and pasture growth while it would be effective for rainwater harvesting and refill of surface water reservoirs.

The Gu 2019 rains continued to spread across Somalia over the last week with many stations recording moderate to heavy rains of more than 50mm total rainfall. Moderate to high rains were also received in Ethiopian highlands over the same period. River levels along the Shabelle continued to increase, while the levels along Juba river dropped slightly. Both Shabelle and Juba river levels are currently below the long term mean for this period of the year. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days (Map 1) indicates light to moderate rains across the entire country, apart from Somaliland and parts of southern regions around Gedo where little no rains are foreseen. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 19 May 2019 shows moderate to heavy rains across the country as well as the Ethiopian highlands (Map 2). Heavy rains in Mudug and Galgaduud regions bordering Ethiopia may lead to flash floods. Given the rainfall forecast, the Juba and Shabelle River levels are expected to increase slightly in the coming week.

The Gu 2019 rains continued to spread across Somalia over the last week with many stations recording moderate to heavy rains of more than 50mm total rainfall. Specifically parts of Somaliland and the central areas bordering Ethiopia recorded heavy rains that led to flash floods and some damages to infrastructure. Moderate to high rains were also received in Ethiopian highlands over the same period. River levels along the Shabelle and Juba continued to increase, reaching the long term mean for the first time since the start of the season. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates light to moderate rains across the entire country, apart from Somaliland and parts of southern regions around Gedo where little or no rains are foreseen. The rains are expected to increase further as the week progresses but with lower intensity compared to previous week. It is worth noting that the Gu rainy season started late in Somalia, and the rainfall amounts recorded so far are significantly below normal, with poor temporal and spatial distribution. More rains are required to reverse the damage that has been caused by the poor rains. With no significant rains foreseen until the end of the season, the existing situation may deteriorate further in all the water dependent sectors.

The last week saw increased rainfall activities in most parts of the country which however did not last for long. The Ethiopian highlands also recorded good amounts of rainfall which saw sharp increases in the river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates light rains in a few pockets of Somaliland while moderate to heavy rains are foreseen in the southern regions. The cumulative seven days rainfall forecast shows that the southern regions as well as the Ethiopian highlands will continue to receive moderate rains until the end of the week. Other parts of Puntland and central regions are expected to receive little or no rains during the coming week. It is worth noting that the Gu rainy season started late in Somalia, and the rainfall amounts recorded so far are significantly below normal, with poor temporal and spatial distribution. More rains are required to reverse the damage that has been caused by the poor rains. With no significant rains foreseen until the end of the season, the existing situation may deteriorate further in all the water dependent sectors.

The Gu 2019 rainy season started late in many places across the country and have so far been characterized with low amounts of rainfall, poor temporal and spatial distribution. However, a few places are yet to receive the much awaited rains. Moderate rains within the Ethiopian highlands led to a gradual increase in river levels inside Somalia, which are still significantly below normal at this time of the year. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates moderate rains in the southern regions with little or no rains in the rest of the country. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 09 May 2019 shows moderate rains across the central and southern regions of Somalia and within Ethiopian highlands. Light rains are expected in Puntland and Somaliland regions during the forecast period.

The 2019 Gu (March/April-June) season rainfall season was marked by a delayed start in most parts of the country. The distribution of the rains have been poor in terms of quantity, temporal and spatial distribution throughout March and May. The month of May saw increased rainfall activities in the first half of the month with some stations recording moderate to heavy rains. Although this comes very too late for most crop growing areas, the rains in May led to replenishment of pasture and ground water sources in most of the pastoral areas that have been affected by moderate to severe drought since January 2019. Exacerbated by below-average 2018 Deyr (October-December) season rainfall, the cumulative 2019 Gu season rainfall is way below the long-term average and not sufficient to fully address the water shortage across Somalia. As a result, Mild to moderate drought conditions are still present in many areas across the country. An update will be issued every 10-days throughout the remainder of the season.

The temporal and spatial distribution of the Gu 2019 rains continue to improve across Somalia. The rains started late in April, with many places across the country recording low rainfall or remaining dry to the end of the month. The situation has however improved over the last few days, especially in the southern parts of the country where moderate rains have been recorded in some stations. The Ethiopian highlands have also received moderate to high rains over the last two weeks, resulting to gradual increase in River levels along Juba and Shabelle. With the current steady rise, the river levels are expected to reach the normal level for this time of the year within the coming one week. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates light to moderate rains in many parts of the country, apart from Bari Region and the coastal areas of Somaliland where little or no rains condition is foreseen for this period. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 13 May 2019 shows moderate rains across the country, and less rains along the coastal areas of Somaliland and Bari Region. Moderate to high rains are foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands. As a result, the Juba and Shabelle River levels are expected to continue rising in the coming week.

Drought conditions persisted in most parts of the country during the first half of April. Pasture and water are in poor conditions and close to depletion in most areas of key pastoral livelihoods across Somalia. Significant rainfall amounts with good temporal distribution will be required to reverse the current state. The Gu rains normally start in late March in the north western parts of the country and late March / early April in the rest of the country. However, the rains came late in north western regions, and are yet to start in many other parts of the country, which creates doubts among the humanitarian actors in Somalia about the future food security and water availability. Local oceanic systems including the recent cyclones around Mozambique have weakened the rainfall generating mechanism in Somalia and the Horn of Africa in general. River levels increased slightly over the last few days following rains in the Ethiopian highlands. The levels are however below their normal in both Juba and Shabelle rivers during this time of the year.

Most parts of Somalia will remain dry in the next three days, apart from few areas in Somaliland and a few pockets in Bay and Bakool regions in the south where light rains are expected. The rainfall forecast for the coming seven days indicates the possibility of more rains towards the end of the week in Somaliland, most parts of southern regions and the Ethiopian highlands. Other areas including Puntland, and central regions will remain dry or receive minimal rains during the coming week. River levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers saw a slight increase over the last few days following light to moderate rains in the Ethiopian highlands. However, the levels are still way below the normal and more significant rains are needed to bring the levels back to normal.