Rainfall of moderate to heavy intensities has been received in several locations across the country. The heavy downpour which started on 22 to 26 November 2019 led to flash floods in some places. Some of the places affected by flash floods include Erigavo and Zeylac districts in Somaliland which saw displacement of several households and destruction of property. Parts of Mogadishu were also flooded following a heavy downpour in the night of 25 November where 78mm of rainfall was recorded. Many stations in Puntland also recorded heavy rains during the last week which led to flash floods. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days is calling for a reduction of rainfall activities across the country as well as within the Ethiopian highlands with little or no rains expected after 27 November 2019. River levels along the Shabelle remain high and are anticipated to remain so in the coming week. There remains a moderate risk of flooding along the river. Observed river levels along the Juba continued to drop and are currently within the normal at this time of the year.

The Deyr rains continued into the second month of the season with many stations recording light to moderate rains in the southern parts of the country. Parts of central and Puntland areas recorded heavy rains on 2nd and 3rd of November. No rains were reported in Somaliland during the week in review. The good rains received so far have continued to replenish water sources further improving pasture growth and reducing water stress. There has been an improvement in livestock body conditions and milk production as well. Shabelle River: In Belet Weyne and surrounding areas, river levels reached its maximum carrying capacity on 24 October 2019 and has remained so up to date leading to overflow which left most of the town under water. The flood waters in the town have however started receding back to the river which is causing an increase of river in the downstream stations. Levels at Bulo Burti are currently very high and only 4cm away from the bank full level. Satellite image analysis further indicate inundation of more than 10,000 Hectares of agricultural land in Belet Weyne district. Unknown amount of crop land has also been inundated in Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi districts. In Middle Shabelle, floods have damaged more than 65,000 Hectares of cropland at Jowhar and Mahaday Weyne following high river levels and open river breakages. The river levels are expected to remain high along the entire channel of Shabelle as more waters from the Ethiopian highlands are still streaming in. High risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle in the coming week. Juba River: Along Juba River the levels dropped gradually over the last week. The levels are expected to fluctuate in the coming week with a Moderate risk of flooding towards the end of the week. In Bay and Bakool regions: There was a reduction of rainfall activities in these regions over the last week which improved the situation in terms of flooding. Puntland, Somaliland and Central regions: A tropical storm named KYARR dissipated in the Indian Ocean before making a land fall in Somalia as earlier predicted. The much expected heavy rains and associated impacts were therefore not experienced. However, a few places in Puntland and central regions recorded heavy rains on the 2nd and 3rd of November which led to flash floods that destroyed property and death of livestock. The rainfall forecast for the coming week shows continuing rainfall activities in many parts of Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. As a result, the current high river levels, and ongoing riverine flooding, along the Shabelle river are expected to continue in the coming week. Flash floods will also be experienced in low-lying areas of Bakool, Bay and Galgaduud region. No significant amount of rains area foreseen in Nuugal, Bari and Mudug regions. Hot and dry conditions are expected to persist in the coming week calling a cause for concern due to the prolonged dry period which may lead to depletion of water resources and pasture in the coming weeks.

Tropical Storm KYARR expected to cause strong winds and some rains across Puntland and Somaliland A tropical storm named KYARR has been developing in the northern Indian Ocean and is expected to affect most parts of Puntland and Somaliland in the next 4 to 5 days. The storm is expected to affect the coastal areas of Puntland in the next 96 hours and spread further inland towards Somaliland and the central areas within 24 hours. Strong winds accompanied with light to moderate rains will therefore be experienced in areas situated along the storm path. Therefore, it is advisable to take the necessary precautions since the strong winds associated with the tropical storm might lead to destruction of weak structures. The cyclone is going to affect the Puntland shipping line thus disrupting water transport in that area. Flash floods may also occur in some areas.

Moderate to heavy rains continued in many parts of Somalia. The Ethiopian highlands also continued to receive heavy rains in the last few days. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days is calling for moderate to heavy rains across the country as well as within the Ethiopian highlands.  The foreseen heavy rains may lead to a further increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia, translating to a high risk of flooding along the two rivers. Areas to watch out for river flooding include the entire channel of Shabelle River as well as Gedo and Middle Juba regions along the Juba River. Flash floods are expected in built-up and low lying areas of Bay, Bakool and central regions given the forecast.

A few places in Somalia received light rains during the last few days. Gedo region in the south, parts of Puntland and Somaliland recorded light rains of up to 20mm. The season is expected to continue spreading further in the coming weeks until the end of season in November. The rainfall forecast for the next three days is calling for moderate rains of up to 40mm cumulatively in most parts of Somaliland and a few places in Puntland. As the week progresses the rains will intensify and spread further in space, with many parts of the country recording 50 to 100mm in total. Heavy rains of up to 150mm are expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the forecast period. The heavy rains will lead to increased river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia. A moderate risk of flooding remains in the middle reaches of Shabelle river. Areas to watch out for floods include Mahadey Weyne, Jowhar, and Balcad districts riverine areas where there exist several open river banks and weak river embankments. River levels along the Juba are expected to rise slightly with no risk of flooding.

Compared to the previous three weeks, there has been a reduction of rainfall activities in most parts of Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. However, moderate to heavy rains were recorded in Bay and Bakool regions and a few places within the Shabelle in the last couple of days. The northern parts of the country remained mostly dry. The good rains received so far have continued to replenish water sources further improving pasture growth and reducing water stress. There has been an improvement in livestock body conditions and milk production as well. While the river levels in Shabelle continued to increase reaching maximum holding capacity in Belet Weyne, there was a reduction of river levels along the Juba. Shabelle River: In Belet Weyne and surrounding areas, river levels reached its maximum carrying capacity on 24 October 2019 and has remained so up to date leading to overflow which has left most the town under water. Reports so far indicate tens of people have drowned or are missing. Satellite image analysis further indicate inundation of more than 2,000 Hectares of agricultural land. In Middle Shabelle floods have damaged more than 10,000 hectares of cropland at Jowhar and Mahaday Weyne following high river levels and open river breakages. In Jowhar, the river level reached the high flood risk level since late August, and has been fluctuating within this level to date. The river levels are expected to remain high along the entire channel of Shabelle as more waters from the Ethiopian highlands are still streaming in. High risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle in the coming week. Existence of river breakages (39 points identified and reported by SWALIM in September 2019) is likely to escalate the flooding situation unless urgent measures are taken. Juba River: Along Juba River the levels dropped gradually over the last week. Bardheere town in Gedo however remained inundated and the situation has started to improve in the last few days. The levels are expected to fluctuate in the coming week with a Moderate risk of flooding towards the end of the week. In Bay and Bakool regions: Heavy rains resulted into flash floods destroying cropland (sorghum, maize and cowpeas). Bur Hakaba, Baardale, Huddur and Qansadheere districts were the most affected. Moderate risk of flooding remain in this area. Puntland, Somaliland and Central regions: A tropical storm named KYARR has been developing in the northern Indian Ocean and is expected to reach Puntland and Somaliland in the next 72 Hours. Moderate rains and winds of low to medium strength will be experienced in both coastal and inland areas of these regions starting on 02 and 03 November 2019. It is advisable to take the necessary precautions since the winds associated with the tropical storm might lead to destruction of weak structures. Flash floods are also foreseen in these areas. The rainfall forecast for the coming week shows an increase of rainfall activities in many parts of Somalia. As a result, the current high river levels, and ongoing riverine flooding, along the Juba and Shabelle rivers are expected to continue in the coming week. Flash floods will also be experienced in low-lying areas where moderate rains are expected.

Moderate to heavy rains continued in many parts of Somalia. The Ethiopian highlands also continued to receive heavy rains in the last few days. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days is calling for moderate to heavy rains across the country as well as within the Ethiopian highlands.  The foreseen heavy rains may lead to a further increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia, translating to a high risk of flooding along the two rivers. Areas to watch out for river flooding include the entire channel of Shabelle River as well as Gedo and Middle Juba regions along the Juba River. Flash floods are expected in built-up and low lying areas of Bay, Bakool and central regions given the forecast.

The Deyr rainy season continued to spread in space and magnitude during the last week. The last two days saw heavy rains in parts of Juba and Shabelle basins with some stations recording more than 100mm of rainfall. The Ethiopian highlands also received very heavy rains in the last few days. This has consequently led to increased river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers both in Ethiopia and Somalia with some cases of river flooding. River levels along the Shabelle remained high in the last few weeks and continued to increase following the heavy rains. Unofficial field reports further indicate flooding in parts of Mustahil and Kalafo within the Shabelle basin in Ethiopia. The flood wave is expected to be transmitted downstream in Somalia in the coming few days leading to a further increase of river levels that may cause flooding along the River. Observed river levels of the Juba River which have been low in the previous week rose drastically in the last 24 hours. At Dollow and Luuq stations in Gedo region, there was 2m rise in the last 24 hours. Riverine flooding and flash floods have been reported in Dollow and the surrounding areas. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall activities in many parts of the country including the Juba and Shabelle basins both in Ethiopia and Somalia. There is therefore high risk of flooding during this week along the two rivers given the current situation. Areas to watch along the Shabelle River include Jowhar town and its environs; where the river level is currently near bankfull level and other riverine towns in the lower Shabelle region. The situation could be further exacerbated by weak river embankments and open river banks. Other areas to watch along the Juba include Dollow and the mid reaches of the River.

Moderate to heavy rains continued in many parts of Somalia and within the Ethiopian highlands over the last one week. River levels at Belet Weyne (Shabelle) are currently very high and the trend is expected to continue reaching over bank in the coming few days. Along Juba, the river levels are also high. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for moderate to heavy rains across the country as well as the Ethiopian highlands. The river levels will therefore continue to rise with a high risk of flooding along the entire two channels. Flash floods are expected in built-up and low lying areas of Bay, Bakool and central regions given the forecast.

Unusual heavy rains were recorded in parts of Juba and Shabelle Catchments in the last few days. Some of the stations that recorded significant amounts in the last three days include Mataban (120mm), Belet Weyne (60mm), Mogadishu (46mm), Dollow (136mm) and Luuq (67mm). Flash floods and riverine flooding have been reported in parts of Gedo region following the heavy rains. In Luuq district, unconfirmed acreage of cropped land has been inundated while several people living close to the Juba river in Dollow have been temporarily displaced. The rainfall forecast for the next three days is calling for moderate rains of up to 50mm cumulatively in many parts of the country. As the week progresses the rains will intensify and spread further in space, with many parts of the country recording 50mm and above. Heavy rains of up to 200mm are expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the forecast period. The heavy rains will lead to a further increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia, which translates in a high risk of flooding along the two rivers. Areas to watch out for river flooding include the entire channel of Shabelle and Gedo region in Juba basin.