Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 28-05-2019

Rainfall Forecast
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The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates light to moderate rains in the coastal areas of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle regions. Moderate to heavy rains of more than 50mm cumulatively are expected in Sool and parts of Nugaal regions in Puntland starting from 29 May 2019 with a moderate risk of flash floods in built up and low lying areas. The rains are expected to spread further in space and intensity as the week progresses with good rains expected in many areas across Somaliland and Puntland towards the end of the week. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands will also receive good rains towards the end of the week. The central regions and large parts of southern regions except Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle will remain dry in the coming week. Insufficient soil moisture is a primary factor limiting crop, forage and pasture growth in Somalia. The temporal distribution of the seasonal rainfall is paramount compared to the total quantity rainfall in the season. The Gu rains of 2019 has seen unreliable short spans of rain storms across the country which are not dependable to the water dependent sectors, the crops and pasture require some rainfall to remain productive. For instance, some stations have recorded only one day of rainfall since the start of the season with some exceeding 50mm in the one day rainfall. Such rainfall is rendered ineffective for crop and pasture growth while it would be effective for rainwater harvesting and refill of surface water reservoirs.
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Date of publication: 
May, 2019