Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 24-05-2019

Rainfall Forecast
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The last few days have a seen a decline in rainfall activities in most parts of Somalia. Parts of Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Bay regions however recorded moderate to heavy rainfall. The Ethiopian highlands received reduced amounts of rainfall compared to the previous week. This led to a slight decrease in levels along the Juba and Shabelle rivers in Somalia. Field reports from Middle Shabelle indicate riverine flooding around Jowhar caused by open river breakages. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next 3 days indicates light to no rains in Somaliland, Puntland and Central regions, while light moderate to heavy rains are foreseen in the southern regions. The cumulative seven days rainfall forecast shows that the southern regions as well as the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands will continue to receive moderate rains of reduced intensity until the end of the week. Heavy rains are expected in the coastal areas of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle which are likely to cause flash floods. It is worth noting that the Gu rainy season started late in Somalia, and the rainfall amounts recorded so far are significantly below normal, with poor temporal and spatial distribution. More rains are required to reverse the damage that has been caused by the poor rains. With the Gu rains season almost coming to an end, the existing situation may deteriorate further in all the water dependent sectors.
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Date of publication: 
May, 2019