Somalia Deyr 2015 Rainfall Outlook

The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) has confirmed that El Nino conditions have intensified and will affect the region during the September to December rainy season. The El Nino event is likely to lead to a wetter than normal Deyr season in parts of the country. The rainfall forecast indicates that the Deyr 2015 season in  Somalia is expected to be above normal (45% probability of above normal rains) with a tendency of 35 % probability of normal rains in the south and central regions. This also includes part of the Ethiopian highlands which contribute significantly to both Juba and Shabelle river flow inside Somalia. Further, the Northern parts of Somalia are expected to experience normal rains (40% probability of normal rains) with a tendency of 35% below normal rains.

It should be noted that this is a probabilistic forecast designed for a regional audience that addresses the cumulative rainfall forecast over the four‐month period from (September to December 2015). The rainfall pattern may vary from place to place with the areas expected to receive high rains experiencing periods of dry spells and areas expected to receive low rains experiencing heavy storms.

To view the detailed outlook, download the Deyr 2015 Rainfall Oulook. SWALIM and other technical partners will keep updating this forecast for shorter lead time periods.

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