The Gu 2017 rainy season started in parts of Somaliland during the last week of March. Many stations in the region recorded moderate rains while southern parts of Awdal region recorded heavy rains that were distributed within five days. This brought an immediate relief to the area which has been experiencing a prolonged dry period like the rest of the country. More rains are expected in April and May. The rains are yet to start in many other areas of the country, including Puntland and southern regions. The rainfall forecast for today (Map 1) indicates no significant rainfall amounts but the rains are expected to intensify with the time and space during the week ending on 10th April, 2017 as seen in Map 2. The Cumulated rainfall forecast for the week is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains in the southern regions and the Ethiopian highland (20 to 100mm). Light to moderate rains of up to 40mm is expected in Somaliland while Puntland and central regions will remain dry.

The Gu rains started in may parts of Somalia with below average performance in Southern regions. During the second Dekad of April 2017 (11th – 20th), there was a reduction of rainfall activities in in many places from the previous dekad. The season is yet to start in Puntland and the central regions of the country which remained dry remained dry during the same period causing more concern in the drought stricken areas. Moderate rains received in the in the Ethiopian highlands in the beginning of the month led to an increase of river levels along the Juba and Shabelle.

The Gu 2017 rainy season started in parts of Somaliland during the last week of March with the southern parts of Awdal region recording heavy rains that were distributed within five days. This brought an immediate relief to water stress in the area. The other parts of the country are expected to start receiving the Gu rains by mid April. The rainfall forecast for today (Map 1) indicates light rains of up to 20mm in the southern regions, parts Somaliland and the Ethiopian highlands. The rains re expected to increase in the same areas towards the end of the week as seen in Map 2 which is valid up to 11 April 2017. Little or no rains are foreseen in Puntland and central regions during the forecast period.

The rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours indicates light to moderate rains parts of northern areas of the country especially in Togdheer, Sanag, Sool, Bari and Nugaal regions. Other parts of the country will remain dry within the next 24 hours. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 02 May 2017 shows moderate to heavy rains in most parts of the country including the Ethiopian highlands. Most of the rains are expected towards the end of the week. Given the forecast, cases of flash floods cannot be ruled out especially in the northern areas within the week. The river levels are also expected to rise given the forecast. Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between forecast and actual amounts of rainfall received.

Light rains were reported in a few places in southern regions of Somalia in the last 24 hours. Belet Weyne in Hiraan recorded 5mm of rainfall while Wanle Weyne in Lower Shabelle, and Bur Hakaba in Bay received a total of 10mm and 8mm respectively. Light rains were also reported in a few pockets of the western side of Somaliland while no rains were reported in Puntland during the same period. Field reports also indicate light to moderate rains within the Ethiopian highlands. The rainfall forecast for today (Map 1) indicates light rains of up to 20mm in the southern regions, parts Somaliland and the Ethiopian highlands. The rains will increase in the same areas in terms of space and quantity as the week progresses as seen in Map 2 which is valid up to 12 April 2017. Little or no rains are foreseen in Puntland and central regions during the forecast period. Given the forecast, the river levels along the Juba and Shabelle are expected to increase with no risk of flooding during the coming week. The levels and rainfall forecast are updated on a daily basis and can be found in this link: http://systems.faoso.net/frrims/

The week ending 09 April 2017 saw moderate rains in parts of Somaliland and southern regions in Somalia. No significant rains were reported in Puntland. The Ethiopian highland also received good rains that led to a sharp increase in river levels inside Somalia and consequently restoring the river flow in the lower reaches which had gone dry since the beginning of the year. The rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours (Map 1) indicates little or no rains in the country. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 16 April 2017 shows light to moderate rains in few pockets of Somaliland, Bay and Bakool with little or no rains in other regions (Map 2).

The rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours (Map 1) indicates no rains in the country except a few pockets of Sanaag in the north and Gedo in the south that may receive light rains. The rains are however expected to increase towards the end of the week spreading in several places across the country. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 25 April 2017 (Map 2) shows moderate to heavy rains Somaliland and western parts of Puntland. A few pockets of Bari and Nugaal will also see light rains during the forecast period. Other places that are expected to receive good rains include the southern and central regions bordering Ethiopia. Moderate to heavy rains are also foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands which may lead to increased river levels inside Somalia towards the end of the week. Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle and the coastal areas of Galgaduud and Mudug regions will remain dry.

The rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours indicates no significant rains in the country. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 26 April 2017 shows moderate to heavy rains Somaliland and western parts of Puntland. A few pockets of Bari and Nugaal will also see light rains during the forecast period. Other places that are expected to receive good rains include the southern and central regions bordering Ethiopia. Moderate to heavy rains are also foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands which may lead to increased river levels inside Somalia towards the end of the week. Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle and the coastal areas of Galgaduud and Mudug regions will remain dry.

The Gu 2017 (March/April to June) rainfall forecast points towards near-normal to below-normal rains within the Juba and Shabelle River basins. However, flooding along the two rivers may still occur, especially in areas with open river banks/weak river embankments, in the event of increased river flow. SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages by mapping them using available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM); as well as verifications based on field observations where feasible. All the observations reported refers to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. Four types of breakages have been identified, namely; open, potential, closed with sandbags and closed. The open breakages are those that are still open as observed on the latest VHR image available, therefore a field verification is needed before planning any repair. The potential breakages represent points that have weak river embankments. The closed with sandbags points are defined here as those that been temporarily closed with sandbags making them still vulnerable for further breakages. The closed points are those that were previously open but have since been closed using heavy machinery, which prevents further flooding in the short to medium term. The attached maps show the open, potential and closed with sandbags points along the two rivers. In summary, eighteen (18) open points along the Shabelle and nineteen (19) along the Juba were identified. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have been identified. It is worth noting that the methodology relies heavily on satellite images with limited field verification. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear (e.g. heavy cloud cover) or were not available at all. Maps of the status of river breakages, with detailed information, have been produced at large scale and can be obtained from SWALIM offices.

Most parts of Somalia are facing serious drought conditions with the larger part of the population facing severe to extreme drought conditions. Since the last half of 2016, the severity has been spreading spatially and the impacts getting worse with time. Some climate models are already predicting a poor rainy season in the coming season which may further aggravate the existing drought conditions. However, this forecast will be confirmed in the coming month during a regional Climate Outlook Forum. The months of January and February usually experience the lowest amounts of river flow along the Shabelle River. January 2017, has however seen significantly below normal levels along the river since the beginning of the month. Some parts of the river in the lower reaches have dried up. This has been caused by below normal rains experienced in the upper parts of the Shabelle basin during the previous season which in turn has led to reduced river flow and over utilization of the river water for various uses both in Ethiopia and inside Somalia.

A few pockets in the western parts of Somaliland and southern regions in Somalia will experience light rains while moderate to heavy rains are expected in the Ethiopian highlands in the coming three days. The rest of the country will remain dry in the same period.

The Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM) and the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) are pleased to share with you their joint publication: Somalia Drought Watch for October 2016. The key highlights are: 1). Moderate to Extreme drought conditions are being experienced in the country. The negative trends are not expected to reverse until the next rains, which are anticipated in April 2017. 2). During the month of October 2016, most parts of Somalia recorded poor rainfall amounts, with most regions registering 25 to 50 percent of average. 3). Vegetation conditions worsened and drought conditions strengthened and continued to affect pasture, water, livestock and crops, with vegetation cover (NDVI) 60 to 70 percent of average in southern regions. 4). Prospects of Deyr cereal production are bleak, with crop failure expected in many areas. 5). Juba and Shabelle river levels are currently below normal; the resulting competition for irrigation water is likely to lead to deliberate breakage of embankments, adversely affecting downstream users

Light scattered rains are expected in a few areas at the central and southern parts of the country, especially along the coast. The rest of the country will remain dry in the next three days. Light to moderate rains are expected at the Ethiopian highlands in the same period.

The three days accumulated rainfall forecast is calling for light rains of up to 20mm in some parts of the southern regions of Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands . The rest of the country will remain dry during the forecast period.

In the next three days light to moderate rains will be received in southern and central parts of the country and the Ethiopian highlands. The north western regions will receive scattered rains while the north eastern parts will remain dry in the same period.

The northern and central parts of Somalia are expected to remain dry in the coming three days while the southern parts and the Ethiopian highlands will be expected to receive light to moderate rains during the same period.

There will be a significant reduction of rainfall activities in most parts of the country in the coming three days. Most areas in the country will remain dry with exception of the southern coast that may receive light rains.

The southern parts of the country and the upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle Rivers at the Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive light to moderate rains in the coming three days. The northern parts of the country will remain dry in the same period.

The southern parts of the country and the upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle Rivers at the Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive light to moderate rains in the coming three days. The northern parts of the country will remain dry in the same period.

There will be reduced rainfall activities in most parts of Somalia in the coming three days with exception of the lower reaches of Juba and Shabelle regions where light rains are expected in the forecast period. Moderate to high rains are also foreseen within the Ethiopian highlands in the next three days.

Minimal rainfall activities are expected across Somalia in the next three days, apart from the southern coastal areas which may receive light rains. The upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle Rivers at the Ethiopian highlands will also remain dry in the same period.

There will be a reduction of rainfall activities in most parts of Somalia in the coming three days with exception of Puntland regions where moderate rains are expected in the last day of the forecast period. Moderate rains are also foreseen within the Ethiopian highlands in the next three days.

The rainfall forecast for the next three days points towards light to moderate of up to 30mm in parts of Bari, Nuugal, Sool aand Sanaag regions all in the north eastern parts and Bakool region in the south as well in the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands. The rest of the country is expected to remain dry during the same period.

Light rains are expected to be experienced in parts of Sanaag and Togdheer regions in the northern parts of Somalia and a few places in the southern regions bordering Ethiopia. The Ethiopian highlands whose rainfall contribute significantly to the river flow of Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia are also expected to receive light to moderate rains within the forecast period. The rest of the country will receive little or no rains in the same period.

The rainfall forecast for the next three days points towards light rains of up to 30mm cumulatively in the inland parts of Somaliland and Puntland. The Upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands may experience moderate rains while rest of the country is expected to remain dry during the same period.