Somalia Rainfall Outlook for Gu 2019 - Issued: 19 February 2019

Rainfall Outlook
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Gu (April-June) is the primary rainy season in Somalia because it is more dominant in terms of quantity and reliability. Approximately 75 percent of the annual rainfall in Somalia is recorded during the Gu season. The Gu rains typically start in March/April and ends at different times throughout the country depending on the movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which is responsible for driving the rainfall. According to the recently issued consensus climate outlook for the Greater Horn of Africa (GHACOF51), the 2019 Gu rainy season in Somalia is expected to be near normal to above normal in most areas with warmer than normal temperatures across the whole country. There is increased likelihood of above normal to near normal rains with 70 percent probability of experiencing above normal to normal rains in Somaliland. The Ethiopian highlands whose rainfall contributes about 90 percent of the river flow in Juba and Shabelle rivers inside Somalia are also expected to record enhanced Gu season rains. The southern parts of Somalia, including large parts of central regions and Puntland will likely receive near normal rainfall. The coastal and adjacent parts of Nugaal, Mudug, Galgadud, Middle and Lower Shabelle Regions are expected to receive depressed rains with a higher percent probability of below normal to near normal rains
Date of publication: 
February, 2019